The last credible poll of November showed that Tisza could number on 35 to 45 percent voter support. That's 4 to six percent points over Fidesz. Orban's government began the offensive, trying to undermine Magyar's credibility, but this is not the end of problems for the ruling camp.
"Hungarian economy faces difficulties"
The problems facing the Hungarian Prime Minister in the economical sphere make him humble to the EU. "Victator" is being forced to compromise, which is best demonstrated by fresh his approval of sanctions against Moscow.
In consequence to challenges in the interior political arena Orban introduced changes to electoral law. By reducing the number of parliamentary seats from the territory in Budapest from 18 to 16. He justified this by demographic change, but this decision was immediately condemned by opposition MPs as manipulation, due to the fact that it is in the capital that the support for the opposition is greatest.
Orban does what he can to halt adverse trends for himself. Under the budget for 2025, the government plans more grants for tiny and medium-sized enterprises, more support and taxation relief for families, mortgage limits and interest-free loans for young people already employed. All of this is to gain the hearts and minds of people under 40 — a demographic group in which support for Fidesz is peculiarly weak.
However, specified political moves do not change the fact that the Hungarian economy is presently struggling.
"Inflation will proceed to grow"
Hungary's economical growth in 2024 was weakened by a tiny number of orders. The Hungarian economy is estimated to have increased by just 0.5 to 0.7% of Gross home Product (GDP). This is in sharp contrast to the government's first mark of 4%.
Moreover, inflation appears to proceed to grow, and forint continues to weaken — although any revival has occurred in the last 3 months — with additional inflationary implications. These concerns prevented the central bank from lowering the base rate below 6.5%, which was first achieved in September.
In its public rhetoric, Orban continues to blame the war in Ukraine for weakening current request in the EU and thus for Hungary's economical stagnation.
The Hungarian Prime Minister believes, on the another hand, that Trump's return to the White home will be a catalyst for global economical growth, mostly due to the fact that the president of the United States is announcing the cessation of war in Ukraine.
On the another hand, many believe that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will be the main beneficiary of Trump's second word and may become the most crucial tool for the president of the United States to divide the European Union from within. 1 of the biggest concerns among European leaders is that the return of US president Donald Trump to the White home will strengthen populists across the EU.
Kent Nishimura / AFP / AFPDonald Trump
In 2025. Orban can usage his veto even more to undermine EU policy towards Ukraine, the united position of Europe towards Russia and the imposition of retaliatory duties on the United States.
Orban expects that the fall in military spending as a consequence of a possible ceasefire will be diverted to consumption. This is simply a script that does not consider threats Trump on the imposition of duties on US imports from the EU.
The Prime Minister of Hungary besides focuses on many investments in the automotive sector, in peculiar in China's electrical vehicle battery factories, which will be launched in 2025 and will service as a driving force for increased exports.
"Orban is more financially dependent on China"
Despite all these optimistic assumptions, Orban's government at the turn of the year lost EUR 1 billion (about PLN 4.2 billion) from cohesion funds. This will affect Hungary's budget deficit, which could be between 4 and 4.5% in 2025. The EU is taking advantage of this situation, as stopping funds increases the force on Budapest.
These conditions besides make Orban is more financially dependent on China. This in turn exposes him to the reaction of America, as 1 of Trump's geopolitical priorities is to compete with Beijing.
Meanwhile, the media controlled by the Hungarian government constantly emphasize the importance of Orban on the global stage, stressing the importance of his relation with Trump, Putin and president of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. His "wise" efforts for peace in Ukraine, as well as the expected large diplomatic achievements of the Hungarian Presidency in the EU — in particular, the admission of Romania and Bulgaria to the Schengen area.
However, in fact, the economical difficulties that Orban is facing are further undermining his ability to influence the EU.
