Larry Johnson: MOST NOTES:

The U.S. bombed 2 military facilities.

on the Iranian island of Larak,

near a key point

crude oil supplies

• uncut-news.ch 31 August 2026.uncutnews-ch/larry-johnson-eilmeldung-usa-bombardieren-zwei-militaerstandorte-auf-der-iranischen-insel-larak-in-der-naehe-einer-wichtigen-oel-engstelle

On Sunday, August 30, 2026, US forces attacked 2 Iranian positions on the island of Larak in the strategically crucial Oman Gulf, straight adjacent to the Strait of Ormuz.

The attack, the first publically confirmed US attack on Iranian targets since the end of July, interrupted a fragile period of comparative restraint and triggered an Iranian rocket attack on US bases in Jordan within hours. In a live interview for the dialog Works channel, erstwhile CIA analyst Larry Johnson described these events as a symptom of a deficiency of American strategy and the start of a fresh escalation round.

The island of Larak lies just a fewer kilometres from the Iranian coast, close Bandar-Abbas, straight on 1 of the narrowest and most crucial shipping routes in the world. Much of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Ormuz. The United States has stated that the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC) there has prepared rocket launchers to launch sea mines towards the strait. The U.S. officer has confirmed the usage of drones. Iranian sources reported fatalities and injuries among soldiers and civilians and announced “answer and punishment”.

Johnson believes in Iranian announcements. Tehran doesn't throw empty threats. Drones reportedly came from Jordan; so Iran will attack right there. Jordan has 2 crucial bases: Muwaffaq Salti (also known as Al-Azraq) and King Hussein. The same targets were attacked hours after the US attack by respective waves of ballistic missiles from the western state of Iran, specified as Tehran, Fars, Tebriz, Kermanshah, Lorestan and Chorramabad. At least 1 hit reported at Muwaffaq Salti. Air defence systems – seemingly Patriot PAC-3 – fired interceptor missiles. any missiles were intercepted, any were not.

Johnson believes that the stocks [USA] are mostly exhausted: “It is simply a bottle of champagne that has been emptied”. Against maneuvering or hypersonic systems specified as Fatah, Patriot, THAAD and Iron The domes have small effect at all. Iran frequently first uses older rockets to exhaust its opponent's defence and then sends out more modern weapons.

This minute is politically and economically tense. Both sides have been talking about deescalation for weeks. The American diplomats were expected to come back. At the same time The Americans seemingly withdrew tankers from Qatar – which indicated the expected attacks on the Gulf States. Johnson sees it not as a thoughtful plan, but as a simple practice: "What are we going to do today? Let's bomb the island.” Washington inactive underestimates Iran's willingness and ability to retaliate.

At the same time, president Trump attempts to lower oil prices, concluding an allegedly historical agreement on Venezuelan reserves. Johnson called it an illusion on the site sonar21.com. The reserves are underground, oil is dense and viscous, and the essential infrastructure is insufficient. ExxonMobil had previously given a cost of $100 billion and rejected the idea. What's more, Venezuelan dense oil will not solve the severe shortage of diesel and aviation fuel due to disturbances on the Ormuz route. The attack on Sunday will further rise the prices on the markets on Monday.

The economical losses in the region are already enormous. Since the start of the war in February 2026 Qatar has seen a GDP decline of 8% to over 17% and immense losses in LNG production; Kuwait recorded a decrease in oil production by about 53%, Iraq by 63%, Saudi Arabia by 29%, and the United arabian Emirates by 40%. The Gulf States want to reopen the Straits of Ormuz; Iran alternatively demands the abolition of the blockade imposed by the US. A gathering on the alleged Mecca Pact will shortly be held in Istanbul.

At the same time, Russia is exacerbating the situation in Ukraine: Almost 80 hours of continuous drone and rocket attacks on warehouses, power grids and civilian infrastructure. Supermarkets are empty. Johnson sees this as a manifestation of Putin's determination and a deficiency of willingness to conclude a ceasefire. According to him, the United States has no clear strategy for Ukraine or Iran. Trump doubles the scale of military operations, and economical shocks – related to oil, wheat and diesel – hit the markets.

Johnson expects another day or week of common attacks before there is yet a break or negotiation. Iran will respond harshly to any US attack. erstwhile you talk It was not yet clear whether the missiles would besides hit Israel or American ships in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The night was inactive young. The Ormuz Strait remains a critical point.

Johnson's answer to the question, Did Washington draw any conclusions from the six months of the waris unambiguous: no.