The Union has decided. No more gas furnaces, Poles are facing a giant tax

The European Union launches the largest energy revolution in its history, and Poland is in its epicentre. According to the fresh EPBD Building Directive, millions of Polish families will be forced to exchange their gas furnaces for ecological alternatives. For those who neglect to comply with the fresh legislation, there is simply a severe CO2 tax. The agenda is highly ambitious – the first restrictions are coming into force in a fewer months and the full process is to end a complete ban on the installation of fresh fossil fuel boilers in 2040. Homeowners are up to 15 years old to prepare for changes that will forever change the way buildings are heating in our country. This is simply a historical turnaround, comparable in scale to the introduction of natural gas into Polish cities decades ago.

The revolution begins in 2025. End of grant

The first, very concrete blow to gas heating will be made in a fewer months. As of January 1, 2025, no fresh gas boiler will receive nor a gold in funding with popular government programs. This means the end of the Clean Air grant, which has so far been of large interest and accounted for around 30% of all applications for financial support for thermomodernisation.

The only exception to this regulation will be hybrid systems that combine gas boilers with renewable energy sources specified as heat pumps and solar collectors. In specified installations, gas will only service as a support for highest heat demand. According to experts from the Polish Organization for the improvement of Heat Pump Technology, the grant ban will besides include oil boilers and will apply in all programs, including “Wary Apartment” and as part of the thermomodernisation relief. This is the symbolic end of the era in which the state encouraged investment in fossil fuels.

This change will be peculiarly painful for over 230 1000 Polish familieswhich in fresh years, following government incentives, have exchanged old coal furnaces for modern gas boilers. Now the same households face the possible of another, costly modernisation towards full carbon-free solutions.

The ETS2 taxation is coming. How much will Poles pay for gas heating?

A real price shock awaits homeowners from 2027 to 2028 erstwhile a fresh emissions trading strategy known as ETS2 enters into force. This EU mechanics will make the usage of natural gas for heating dramatically more expensive. CO2 charges, which may initially be around EUR 50 per tonne, are projected to increase to as much as EUR 210 in 2031.

The National emanation Balance and Management Centre (KOBIZE) carried out an analysis whose results are alarming. For an average household heating with gas, the additional costs between 2027 and 2030 may be combined PLN 6338, and by 2035 this sum may grow to up to 24 018 PLN. These are amounts that can ruin quite a few home budgets and force families to owe themselves or even sale real estate.

The ETS2 strategy will hit not only heating but besides transport. It is estimated that by 2035 the price of a litre of diesel could increase by PLN 1.65, petrol by PLN 1.37, and LPG by 96 groszy. The situation will be even worse for families utilizing coal – here additional fees can scope PLN 10,311 by 2030 and astronomical PLN 39,074 until 2035. These figures show the financial scale of the tsunami that is approaching Polish households.

New buildings without gas from 2030. What about existing homes?

Those planning to build a home have little and little time to make key decisions. As of 2030, all fresh buildings in the European Union will gotta meet the zero emanation standard. In practice, this means a complete ban on the installation of any fossil fuel heating equipment, including gas, coal or eco-foam boilers. Public buildings will gotta meet these requirements even earlier, as from 2028.

But what about millions of existing buildings? The Directive does not require the immediate exchange of efficient furnaces. The Union has banned the sale and installation of fresh fossil fuel equipment since 2040, not the dismantling order already in place. This means that in time old furnaces will become little efficient and will require replacement, and then owners will gotta invest in an ecological alternative. However, this ETS2 taxation will be a key origin in speeding up the exchange decision, which will make further usage of gas simply unprofitable.

An exception to installations adapted to the usage of biocomponents specified as biomethane or biopropane may be a rescue. Experts quoted by ‘Rzeczpospolita’ indicate that the behaviour of boilers combined with renewable fuels may be crucial for owners who have late carried out modernisation.

The government promises help. Is shielding enough?

In the face of the coming, gigantic costs, the government announces the introduction of shielding measures. Deputy Head of the Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy, Jan Szyszko, announced that part of the measures to mitigate the effects of the transformation will come from the Social Climate Fund, from which Poland is expected to receive about 50 billion PLN. The improvement Institute estimates that together fresh European instruments can supply up to PLN 150 billion between 2026 and 2032 for the modernisation of buildings and transport.

These amounts, although impressive, may turn out to be a drop in the sea of needs. The full costs of implementing the EPBD in Poland are estimated at an astronomical amount 1.5 trillion PLN by 2050. This is the equivalent of twice the yearly gross of the full Polish budget of 2023. Conscious of the upcoming "price tsunami", climate minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska reported that Poland is negotiating a hold in introducing ETS2 by 3 years to give households more time to prepare.

What are the alternatives to gas? Experts indicate the best solutions

In the face of the inevitable end of the gas era, energy experts urge thoughtful planning of future investments. It is crucial to think about heating systems in line with future EU requirements. The list of the most forward-looking solutions includes:

• Heat pumps: Considered to be 1 of the most efficient and ecological solutions, although their installation involves advanced first costs.
• Hybrid systems: Combining heat pumps with existing gas boilers (which act as a highest source) or with photovoltaics.
• Electrical heating with photovoltaics: It allows advanced energy independence, but requires crucial investments in PV panels and possibly energy storage.
• Biomass systems: They can be a transitional solution, especially in agrarian areas, although they are not completely carbon-free.

Energy transformation in Poland will be 1 of the biggest social and economical challenges of the coming decades. According to the Central registry of Buildings Emissions, gas heating accounts for 27.92% of all heat sources in the country, meaning that changes will straight affect almost all 3rd household. The time to prepare for this revolution is shrinking relentlessly, and the cost of omissions and delays may prove enormous.