Ukraine without US help. How long can it last

– They will last until the end of the year, possibly even a small longer – says Interii kmdr Maximilian Dura.

– They will be able to fight at this level until June-July – she estimates General Waldemar Skrzypczak.

– Stocks should let them to fight for 3 or 4 months. If they introduce a consumption regime, then about six months – it calculates Colonel Piotr Lewandowski.

– The absolute exit begins immediately – he thinks General Leon Komornicki.

Why did the U.S. keep Ukraine late?

That's 2 stories. Last Friday Volodymyr Zelenski met in The White House au Donald Trump. The gathering was to conclude with the signing of a mineral contract, but there was a quarrel and scandal after which Zelenski left in an accelerated mode Washington. On Monday, however, the United States announced that they were holding all aid to Ukraine. Both things clearly seem to be connected.

– I think otherwise," says Interii kmdr Maximilian Dura. Trump promised to end this war. Perhaps. Putin, who doesn't gotta finish it, put Trump on conditions he couldn't meet. The president of the United States realized and decided to blame it on Zelenski. Trump will say that stopping aid is due to Zelenski's behavior, although this is not actual due to the fact that the decision was made earlier. And specified a script will be liable for what will happen later, that is, the deaths of people who will die in the cities," stressed Interia.

Another optics is presented by Gen. Leon Komornicki, who calls the behaviour of Zelenski in Washington a simple scandal. You don't talk like you don't have the strength. It can be undone if reflection and humility come on the Ukrainian side. The solution must be worked out in the privacy of the offices, not in a brazen way in front of the cameras. The same would have been done with Zelenski by Biden and Harris – convinced Gen. Komornicki.

However, the milk has spilled and Ukraine will gotta cope without American aid. And it seems that from now on, as the Prime Minister said Donald Tusk, specified real voices already arrive from the airport in Jasionka podrzeszow, which is our transportation hub to Ukraine.

This is happening momentarily. Everything is computerized and immediately after the decision on the monitor you see the red sign STOP. This is already happening – Colonel Piotr Lewandowski tells us.

How long can Ukraine do without the US? “Cities will burn”

– deficiency of U.S. supplies will not change the situation to the point that Ukrainians will gotta surrender – calms kmdr Dura. – There's not that much American equipment on the front. This decision will primarily affect cities. Russian bombs, without anti-aircraft defense, which was mostly based on American missiles, will fall on cities. The cities will be on fire. And Trump will be able to enter it in his portfolio – he adds.

General Leon Komornicki: – The air defence of Ukraine is compromised. Ammunition will not be provided, and this is 30 percent of real aid from Ukraine. In another words, the Ukrainian army is losing its abilities. It'll be a reunion, a very serious reunion. Intelligence, the command system, that means everything will be cut off. besides intellectual aid. Without an intellectual advantage that involves intelligence, it's going to be hard to supply this data.

General Waldemar Skrzypczak: – Stopping aid for Ukraine will let her to fight until the end of June-July. After that, they'll have nothing to fight. If Europe He won't mobilize, he won't make urgent decisions, it'll be bad.

Kmdr Dura: – The U.S. did not only offer arms, but besides financed the Ukrainian administration to a large extent. That was money, too. They donated finance to supplement the shortcomings resulting from war – average taxes, average economy financing the life of the state. In my opinion, They'll be fine for at least the remainder of the year. Only this fight will get harder.

What will Ukraine lack? They point to the biggest problem.

It's an analytical approach. Colonel Piotr Lewandowski, which precisely explains which elements of American aid can be replaced and which cannot. – Assuming Ukraine has accumulated standard supplies, they should let it to fight for 3-4 months. If they introduce a consumption regime, then about six months – Colonel Lewandowski estimates.

– The biggest problem Ukraine will have with 105 mm ammunition. Only the U.S. has quite a few ammunition. A 155-millimeter? Europe is expanding production, so it is someway able to compensate. Another problem is ammunition 122 mm and 152 mm. The U.S. began manufacturing this ammunition in Russian calibers specifically for Ukraine, so this ammunition will be missing. Countries like Poland have specified ammunition, but this is our strategical reserve – Colonel Lewandowski tells us.

– The missiles to the Himalayas and Patriots will be a problem. Europe has very small of that, it would gotta scope out to its own strategical stocks, those for wartime. Europe faces a large dilemma He's judging.

There are besides elements that our experts believe can be overcome. – I realize that it is everything, including satellite recognition. However, satellite designation can be replaced as Europe. We request to review what the Ukrainians will lose in this support. If we are able to replace something, it needs to be supplemented – convinces Gen. Skrzypczak.

– The shut-off from satellite designation won't be a problem due to the fact that they usage commercial satellites, they have purchased connections. It's worse to admit the next level, which is informing about air strikes, so it's the Awacs systems. Europe has them too, but they will gotta fly more, so in part it is able to fill this gap," added Colonel Lewandowski.

– It's not like the front's gonna collapse. I am convinced that now the Ukrainians will hurry and show that they are with their president. I don't see the anticipation of anything changing on the front. If you look at the list of combat equipment on the front, the most crucial thing is equipment from Europe – says kmdr Dura.

Ukraine has no moves anymore. What's next?

The U.S. eventual makes Ukraine, which has been in an highly hard position so far, fundamentally no more movements. According to our interviewers, the only solution is to get along with the Americans.

– It is in the interests of the Americans to end this war as shortly as possible, due to the fact that they do not have the strength to support Ukraine in specified a dimension. Europe is not able to aid either, due to the fact that manufacture is not turned into a war mode. And so is American due to the fact that there is no and there will be no public consent. We must frost this conflict, or Ukraine will lose everything that is left of it – he observes Gen. Komornicki.

– Ukrainians should sit down, sign this agreement, prosecute peace. I see a chance due to the fact that there is no alternative. Ukraine will either go to co-operation or go to destruction. He will not only attract serious problems, but besides Europe," he adds.

– Ukraine besides wants a ceasefire, but she can't quit due to the fact that if she does, she won't be. She has to defend herself. If he does not defend himself, the population will be exterminated. The Russians will cut out the full Ukrainian nation. Families will be distributed, moved to Siberia, children will be exterminated and then indoctrinated. They're fighting for their existence. They will fight as long as their strength is sufficient, says kmdr Dura.

– If the Russians invade Ukraine, a large part of Ukrainians will flee to Poland. Poland will challenge the adoption of a second wave of refugees. And that will happen if Ukraine goes down and it goes down, if the U.S. stops helping. Nevertheless, political force from Europe can make the US change its approach. possibly peace will fall. For a short time, he adds.

General calls for an extraordinary NATO summit

General Waldemar Skrzypczak calls for the urgent convening of the NATO emergency summitwho doesn't see much sense in regularly calling peaks European Union.

– You can't wait until June with the NATO summit. Let the Americans specify themselves, due to the fact that the decision to support Ukraine was besides a NATO decision. The summit must be called urgently. Without this, there will only be speculation and summits of the European Union, from which nothing results. The European NATO countries must immediately shift the economy from peaceful to war. Weapons and ammunition deficits must be replenished immediately. If they do not do so, Ukraine will be able to take painlessly by Russia in six months," she calls.

Similarly, the attitude of Europe is assessed by General Komornicki, who has long argued that Europe should shift the economy "not present but yesterday".

– If Europe continues to do so, this could besides mean that the US will retreat from Europe. A That's all Russia is waiting for. Article 5 may cease to apply. And if that happens, Russia can hit the Baltic countries. Not in 5 years, but this year – warns General Komornicki, who has so far said that we have “five years to prepare” for a possible clash with Russia.

– 5 years if this war is frozen," he explains. And right now, Putin has an open road. Americans can revoke safety guarantees. In my opinion, Europe cannot replace what the Americans have provided. Europe must start producing. Today, he has a choice – either to proceed disarming, or to introduce a two-shift work strategy and start producing for the Ukrainian army – he emphasises.

On the another hand, Colonel Lewandowski argues that Europe was alone in supporting Ukraine. And if so, she besides should encourage Kiev to concessions in talks with Washington.

– Nevertheless, Ukraine must strive for peace. I would give her 3 months, and he said, "You have adequate time to work out the American peace situation. We will not compensate for the shortcomings in the case of Himars, Patriots, Jevelinas. There was a lot going on from the States – Colonel Lewandowski estimates.

And he concludes: – We have a unusual situation. Our most crucial military ally becomes the closest political ally to our top enemy. Strange, hard and terrible, especially for Poland.

Luke Spitter