We are observing many events of concern and concern not only for the future of Poland, but practically all over the world. The war in Ukraine resembles the global situation of 1914, with its final trigger of the Sarajevo assassination, or the 3 year civilian war in Spain (1936-39) as a prelude to the 2nd century. Like then, 2 blocks of states form other each other, 1 related to Russia (China, Iran, BRICS), the another from the US (NATO) supporting Ukraine, though with any opposition (e.g. Germany). all now and then to failures “Invincible Russian Army” Putin scares the usage of atomic weapons, which means he reads from Brezhniev's old card. The U.S., being an atomic power, lost the Vietnam War, which, like Ukrainians, fought in their territory so much that the driven Russia would not go overseas. Similarly, Britain did not usage this weapon in the war against Northern Ireland, Argentina, or Russia and the US in Afghanistan. The U.S. supports the Russian aggressor Ukraine knowing that in this way they reduce Russia's fighting capabilities and resources. Unfortunately, China has besides come up with a akin thought recently, which will be the biggest beneficiary of this war, helping Russia (purchase of oil, gas) not only to finance its war, but besides to usage the resources (arms and ammunition) of their strategical opponent, the US and NATO. So the proxy war in Ukraine is not unusual, before these powers fought akin wars in Korea,
Vietnam, Afghanistan and whether in the countries of Africa and Central and South America.
Let's look at the size of the economics of the fighting and supporting sides. Let us just remind that present the inactive powerful U.S. has its glory behind them, their competitor China, does not match the economically inefficient USSR and is constantly growing. Today, the possible of countries helping Ukraine in relation to Russia's possible (without China) is estimated at 30 to 1. In turn, Putin has inactive advanced support posts and although he does not have access to his $300 billion frozen in the west, he has material resources to proceed producing weapons and ammunition despite sanctions. The West besides suffers from rising gas, oil prices (petrol, electricity), the US has its own energy resources, but Europe feels its sanctions more.
Now for a better orientation of a fewer numbers. The US allocates 2.7% of GDP to their armed forces (for Reagan 5.7%). The USA is inactive the world's largest economy counting in $ trillion (in Polish in $ trillion), (25), China (18,3), Japan (4,4), Germany (4),India (3.5), W.B. (3,27), France (2,8), Canada (2,2), Russia (2,1), Italy (2), Poland (0.7). However, let us not forget that the world's economies are dangerously indebted (although creative accounting) and e.g. the US is officially indebted to $33 trillion (meaning $33 trillion), which means $94.4,000 in debt per capita, and the yearly interest paid on debt itself exceeds $500 trillion (in Polish billion). Let us add that the US's yearly budget is now $5.8 trillion (bln), it contains $1.6 trillion (bln) of “recognitive” expenditure. This is how the budget is designed to presume $1.2 trillion deficit.
Putin logically expects fatigue in the west “Not His War” knowing that each country has its own interior difficulties from economics (especially after the planet medical coup-COVID-da), after ideological (LGBT, trans, cancel culture, racial and other). He most likely remembers inspired anti-war protests on the streets of America during the Vietnam War, which resulted in the U.S. withdrawing from the war. In this case Putin is reaching out a propaganda hand to Western Conservatives who are fighting in their countries to defend the values of Western civilization (culture, family, religion, law and individual freedom).
Many Western conservatives are clearly lost and think Putin is their natural ally in the fight against demoralizing, atheistic and straight demonic globalist atheism. In fact, they are only witnessing the struggles of the old version of imperialism represented by Russia Putin, with the fresh nihilistic globalist banking imperialism. erstwhile I perceive to statements from Western Putin's supporters, I am horrified by their provincialism due to the ignorance of history, mentality and, as it were, the innate Russian freedom deficit. They enthusiastically criticize corruption, censorship, persecution of opposition in the war-torn Ukraine, not to mention non-existent civilian liberties, conventional corruption, opposition persecution and censorship in Putin Russia!
I am amazed that Putin’s western supporters are inactive in that rotten west (e.g. in the United States). If I were so naive, be truly convinced of the historical mission to save the value of Putin's western civilization, I would immediately decision to the democratic standing of freedom, flowing milk and honey of Russia! Most Putin's supporters have no thought that this unfortunate country has never had a chance to live in democracy in its history. The only beginning of democracy (Kiereński) after respective months bloodyly suppressed the Bolsheviks in November 1917.
The war was triggered by Putin erstwhile in 2014 his “green men“ they began an attack on Ukraine by recruiting the Crimea and supporting the breakers in east Ukraine. The same Ukraine that agreed to donate inherited after the fall of the Soviets about 1,800 strategical atomic warheads and 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles (this was the 3rd atomic arsenal in the world!).The same Ukraine, which in 1994 together with the USA and W.B. signed a Budapestrian memorandum guaranteeing the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine's borders.
To make it even clearer Putin in December 2021 showed his intentions not only towards Ukraine, but besides all of the erstwhile russian satellite states. At the time, he issued an ultimatum in which he demanded NATO not to accept the next states. He continued to request the withdrawal of military facilities from the countries already admitted to NATO from the erstwhile russian sphere of influence. Additionally, do not carry out military training in post-Soviet territories and do not supply them with weapons (!).This dusty doctrine of Brezhnev (from 1968) was expected to push NATO distant from the situation before 1997 at the same time limited sovereignty not only of the erstwhile russian republics, but besides of the erstwhile satellite states as already members of NATO.
In view of NATO's rejection of his ultimatum, Russia began an open aggression on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 hoping to rapidly master Kiev and complete submission to the Ukrainian state. However, the dream of having been in love since childhood in Putin's Stalin to recreate the power of the empire was met with opposition from Ukrainians. As Clausewitz classical said in 1832:
“War is simply a continuation of politics by another means”.
Putin frequently said that Ukraine was old Russian lands. He besides speaks of Crimea, but let us remind that Tatar Crimea (Taurida) Russia yet conquered in 1783. Let us remind the next partitions of the Republic made besides at this time, so likewise Putin can think about Poland (Poland “not abroad”). Is Poland doing well by giving specified large support to the attacked Ukraine, after Poles remember that in September 1939 no 1 helped us (“We will not die for Gdańsk!”) and russian Russia stabbed us in the back. We besides know that if in 1936 the West (France) had blocked the remilitarization of the Ruhra Basin, then Hitler would not have flashed his “Military genius“ and he would have put his ears down. The best and the cheapest was to keep him at the beginning of his “Careers”.
Does anyone (Putin) inactive believe that Ukraine will be easy to conquer and occupy? What about the rule of same - determination of nations? Let us think about why Poland and another countries that managed to break out of Russia's protective clutches so badly wanted to NATO, or did it dictate their historical experience “relationsWith Russia? Do they have the right to make their own choices, or is it just a sense of danger for Russia?
Different options for further developments in this war are being considered. There seems to be no decisive triumph for either organization and most likely China, possibly with the US they will propose a truce and present the terms for negotiations to fight the parties. Ukraine will most likely lose Crimea, and east provinces may receive any greater autonomy, only harm the suffering of average people who lose their lives in this war, their achievements and even hope...
In the west, anti-war organizations are formed, they organize demonstrations, they request a ban on the transportation of arms and assistance to Ukraine. They want to end the war, they want to accomplish peace. They seem to forget that if Russia in Ukraine stops fighting it will indeed be peace. But if Ukraine stops fighting, it will be the end of Ukraine...
Jacek K. Matysiak California, 2023/02/27
