In Ukraine as in all Europe – August is simply a vacation summit. Who can go to the country or even better to the Black Sea (but evidently not to Crimea). Everything will wake up again before the end of the period – then almost 1 September marks the most crucial date of return of children to school.
The stableness and tranquility of politics have besides spread. The usual hot and unforeseeable area, this year it became amazingly boring and predictable. In Ukraine, the power of another political and economical centres was completely taken over. First the presidential election was won by a “black horse”, a non-industry individual – actor (actually a bit comedian) and media maker – Vladimir Zieński, and then on a rapidly formed fresh organization “The Servant of the Nation” gained a majority in parliament. The acquisition of all power took place amazingly neatly and seamlessly. Zieński underestimated and powerfully criticized by opponents, and accused of being only a “frontman” of an oligarch group, managed to cope. Both did not make any spectacular blunders, dissolved early parliament, utilized the summit of support for the introduction of his party, and for the time being calmly takes over all the offices and, consequently, control over individual areas of the economy. He is surely helped by large and persistent public support (he won the 2nd presidential circular 73% to 15%, and his organization won almost 50% of the vote) and affirmative reception. We from the outside can see on the screens of a tiny man, sometimes in the news possibly a small frivolous and with a alternatively comic face (e.g. on photos of sun loungers on vacation, in the company of bodyguards), and the citizens of Ukraine supporting him (certainly young people and everyone discouraged from the old elites and erstwhile parliament) – yet a sensible politician, caring for their country. Importantly, the acquisition of power has not resulted in any social protests, turmoil or violent economical effects – on the contrary, for the first time in a long time hryvna has been strengthening (this is besides a favourable economical situation on basic export products – food and steel). Ukraine is moving for a minute in the direction of "small stability" – and this is the direction the majority of society expects.
It is besides a good time to compare Ukraine with Russia – they present 2 different political paths. In Russia, more than 1,300 people are just stopping at the demonstration – people are protesting due to the fact that they cannot present their own candidates. In Ukraine – voters elect a full democratically fresh president and deputies (and for the first time public opinion polls precisely match the results). There's besides no problem with handing over power.
Social sentiments in Ukraine present are marked fatigues of war and economical problems, as in the opinion of the majority – a mediocre consequence of country reform. It even seems that a large part of the society will accept the annexation of Crimea for peace (although no 1 will officially say it) realizing that it is virtually impossible to teardrop it distant for Russia's return, a bit different is the substance with Donbas – here comes (unless illusory) expectations of negotiations of the fresh president and the normalization of the situation.
In Ukrainian-Russian relations, the first step is the question of Ukrainian sailors – the tester of Zieleński's relations and his Servant of the Nation with Russia. The problem – recalling, is the arrest (still in November of the erstwhile year) of 24 Ukrainian sailors by Russia. After the Russian annexation of Crimea, another problem became the Azov Sea (as we look at the map – something like the Black Sea Bay in the north behind Crimea). The Russians, without a land connection to the Crimean peninsula, rapidly built a large effort of force and resources a large bridge in the Kerchen force (detaching the Black Sea from Azowski). In its natural policy Russia strives to isolate the Azov Sea, Ukrainians respond by sending 3 patrol vessels to pass through the Kerchen Strait. But the passage (under the mediate of the bridge, a typical waterway) is blocked by the Russian Neym tanker, who is reportedly stuck on a shallow (but someway so unusual that it stands across the waterway). Ukrainian boats, in spite of this, affect the Azov Sea, which is not mentioned, most likely hanging on to the Russian coastal region due to the fact that the strait is very narrow. This gives a large excuse for Russian fleet intervention, boarding and arresting Ukrainian sailors. They are in prison all the time and it is only now predicted that the first step in Ukrainian-Russian warming can be their release. A further installment of these accounts is, at least, the unusual and mysterious, further communicative of this Neym tanker. Well, it is sold to another shipowner, it changes its name to Nika Spirit and a fewer days ago, it is not known why (officially the renovation), wraps together with the Russian crew to... Ukrainian port of Izmaił (near Odessa). It is immediately taken over by the Ukrainian safety service – but the Russian crew is immediately released and sent to Russia by Moldova. What's going on? No 1 knows – why this ship with Russians will enter the Ukrainian port, what next with the Ukrainian-sanctioned tanker, and isn't it any part of the puzzle with the exchange of Ukrainian sailors? In any case, the full issue is heard more abroad (e.g. in Poland) than in Ukraine itself (here they don't really know about the story), as in Russia – there was news in the journals and in the newspaper, but very average protest – it is clear that both parties, Ukraine and Russia, request to keep the substance as quiet as possible.
Another possible dispute points – gas transit – Russians want to minimize it. Right now, a large contract for a gas transit through Ukraine (end of the year) ends. Since the fresh Russian pipelines NordStream II and Turkish Stream are not yet ready, the Russians are proposing a short-term extension of the transport through Ukraine (intentions see, of course, Ukrainians) and in turn propose a long-term contract with a warrant of gross for transit (which Russia does not want to do). Stretching the string will surely last throughout 2019 and will most likely end up combining all the elements into one. However, whether there will be a full "reset" of relations with Russia – it is unknown. surely any Ukrainians are counting on peace and, above all, improving the economical situation and are ready to accept the warming in the east direction, a part – including veterans of fighting – are completely opposed and see an aggressor in Russia. The most crucial thing will most likely be what Russia will do, and as always, it will not usage "soft power" but increasingly violent pressures – which does not gotta bring the results it expects. In a moment, Ukrainian illusions of transition to partnership with Russia may fall – as you can see from experience on the Russian electoral way – only elected candidates can be there, and for Ukraine is reserved a place at best – the “associed russian republic”. It may turn out that Ukrainian "stabilization" can be as many times in the past of this country – unfortunately rather short-lived.
