Taras Wysocki warned on 27 August that without financial support Ukrainian farmers could reduce their crops for next year's harvest by 5–7 million hectares, even by a 3rd of the area of 2026. The impact of Russian attacks on ports can hit food exports and the agricultural marketplace besides in Poland.
A 3rd of the area at risk
Taras Wysocki's informing does not describe the failure that has already occurred. This is simply a forecast for another seed run if farms do not have access to working capital and cheaper credit. However, the hazard scale is enormous. According to Ukrainian government data over 20 million hectares of cereals and oil plants were planted under harvest in 2026. The failure of 5-7 million hectares would so mean a decrease of about 1 3rd of this area.
Agriculture remains 1 of the pillars of the Ukrainian economy. His weakness falls into the wider question of whether Ukraine will keep the state despite wartime losses. Russia hits the sector that gives Kiev export proceeds and allows to keep economical activity during the war. The demolition of production and logistics capacity is simply a tool of force on the full state.
Ports, exports and no warehouses
The crisis mechanics begins in the ports of large Odessa. The systematic Russian attacks on port and logistics infrastructure restrict the export of agricultural products through the Black Sea. The seed that cannot be sold and shipped efficiently stays in the country. Then you request warehouses, money for current business and time. Each of these cells is under force today.
The Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine estimates that already in the autumn the shortage of retention capacity can scope 11 million tonnes. The cost of an urgent increase in retention capacity was estimated at $44 million. These figures show that the Russian attack on the port does not end at the damaged wharf. It hits the farm's account, pays the individual and the farmer's decision whether he can afford another sowing.
Credit will decide on future collections
Wysocki pointed out that even storing grain in peculiar sleeves does not solve the problem of liquidity. Farms inactive gotta pay salaries and cover operating costs. Without interest compensation, any of them may reduce production. Official communication after the gathering of the Ministry with UN representatives notes that Kiev has asked the European Union for EUR 220 million to pay interest on bank loans.
The FAO and the planet Food Programme declared their willingness to transfer up to 10,000 cereal sleeves and modular warehouses. Around 60% of these temporary capacities are expected to scope the front-front regions and most affected by the war. The aid may safeguard any of the yields, but it will not reconstruct the efficient export itself or remove the hazard of further Russian strikes.
Poland must defender its own market
For Poland, it has 2 dimensions. The first is safety. The weakening of the economical foundations of Ukraine serves Russia, and stronger Russia represents a greater threat to our country. The Polish interest so requires that Ukrainian cereals have safe warehouses and export routes leading to mark markets. However, this must not mean shifting the cost of the war crisis to Polish farmers.
The second dimension is trade. Kiev is already seeking more land transport, and the subject double transit through Poland raises legitimate questions about the integrity of the controls. Transit must stay transit. The Polish State has a work to guarantee that the goods intended for another customers do not disrupt our market.
Helping an assaulted neighbour and defending their own agriculture are not contradictory. A tough policy is needed: support for retention and export from Ukraine, effective border controls and precedence of economical safety of Polish farms. Experience with Inflow of food from Ukraine and force on Polish producers They don't let naivety. Warsaw must aid not to issue its own citizens an account without control.
Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine, Bankier.pl
Source: Bankier.pl
