After the fighting, Ukraine will become like Israel, a country surviving with a sense of constant danger. This is how General Frederick Ben Hodges sees the future of his east neighbor. The American has commanded U.S. land troops in Europe for years, so in Kiev his forecasts are taken seriously. He besides announced that Ukraine would start tracking Russian guilty crimes after the war ended, as Israeli Mossad pursued Nazis. For Poland this would mean a permanently militarised state just behind the copper.
Israeli model according to American general
According to General Frederick Ben Hodges, Ukraine will not return after the war to the normality known from the times of peace. According to Polsat News, the General in an interview with Deutsche Welle compared the country's future to the situation of Israel. This is simply a country that has been operating in a sense of constant danger for decades, with a strong army, extended intelligence and a society prepared for another attack.
The analogy is clear. Ukraine, even after a ceasefire or formal peace, is to stay an armed state to the teeth, surviving in the shadow of Russia, which will not vanish anywhere. Hodges doesn't talk about the winning end of the war and going back to average life. It speaks of another standard in which combat readiness becomes a constant component of everyday life.
Hunting like after the war
The general's second announcement is even stronger. In his opinion, after the end of the fighting, the Ukrainian peculiar services will start tracking down Russians guilty of atrocities, just as Israeli intelligence after 1945 pursued the perpetrators of the Holocaust. This is simply a premonition of a conflict that will not end with the last shot, but will shift into the shadows, to the level of covert operations and long-term retaliation.
Such a imagination speaks much of the nature of this war. On both sides of the front, the scale of cruelty increases the belief that the settlement cannot be closed by a truce. Hodges draws a image of memory that turns into a long-term mission.
What this means for Poland
The general's forecast has a very applicable dimension for Poland. The second Israel over Dnieprem is simply a strong military neighbor, but besides permanently active in conflict. This means an army in constant readiness, an arms manufacture working at full capacity and a society for which war never ends fully.
For Warsaw it is both a chance and a risk. Strong Ukraine is simply a buffer separating Poland from Russia. However, a country with permanent tension can be unpredictable and susceptible to crises that easy cross the border. Poland must so plan not for months of ceasefire, but for decades of life next to the country in a state of continuous mobilisation.
The Israeli model has a price. It's a common demand, advanced defence spending and a security-controlled economy. If Ukraine goes that way, it will stay dependent on Western financial and military support for years. In this support Poland continues to play 1 of the main roles, bearing part of its costs.
A peace that may not be
Hodges' words are a prediction, not a fact. But the American general has been reading the direction of this war for years and his voice counts. If he is right, Central Europe is entering an era where the frontier of peace and war is fading. The question of whether Poland is ready for a neighbourhood that does not know the word "end" remains open.
Source: Polsat News
