The EU like NATO. Historical change, in the background Russia and the strategy of the porcupine”

The era of the peace dividend is long gone. The safety architecture we relied on can no longer be taken for granted – said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen during the presentation of the White Paper. She stressed that "we must invest in defence, strengthen our capabilities and proactively address safety issues." – Europe is ready to act – assured the German politician.

Kaja Kallas, head of EU diplomacy, referred bitterly to the EU's defence policy over the past decades. – How much we invest in defence shows how much we value it. And over the last fewer decades, we haven't attributed adequate value to her. We gotta spend more – She appealed.

In his words, he did not dress up who was liable for the defence of Andrius Kubilius in the European Commission. – This defence package is simply a crucial minute for our Union. Europe can no longer afford to be a passive observer of its own safety – said the erstwhile Lithuanian Prime Minister. He added, "We must take our defence into our own hands, strengthening our collective safety obligations and standing firm against those who want to challenge our sovereignty.

EU White Paper. “History will not forgive us for inaction”

Great words and serious declarations are not lacking in the White Book itself. The introduction states that "the global order is undergoing changes on a scale not seen since 1945" and "Europe faces a serious and ever-increasing threat". "The only way we can safe peace is to be ready to deter those who would want to harm us," says the document.

The authors of the White Book compose explicitly that in the second half of this decade and in subsequent years A fresh planet order is set out. If the EU does not take matters into its own hands and form this order, both in the region and globally, it will become a passive recipient of the effects of change. With all their negative consequences, at the head of which is the spectrum of full-scale war. "History will not forgive us for inaction," declared Brussels officials.

This defence package is simply a crucial minute for our Union. Europe can no longer afford to be a passive observer of its own security

They besides make it clear that the continuation of the current way is simply a recipe for defeat – "we will end small, divided and defenceless." The authors of the White Paper stress that for the EU the historical gameplay is not only the future of the Union itself, its values and the safety of the associate States, but the health, life and well-being of all citizens.

"Europe must be armed again. In order to make the essential capabilities and combat preparedness, through which it will be able to reliably deter armed aggression and safe its future, a immense increase in spending on European defence is needed – there is no illusion from the European Commission.

Russia, a strategical threat to the EU

In the White Paper there is besides a clear reason for the drastic change in the geopolitical situation in Europe and in the world. They are. powered by neo-imperial ambitions Russia, as well as seeking global dominance China. However, it is Vladimir Putin's government who devote more space to the report. And for the first time they point out that the European Union is officially and diametrically changing its perception of Russia.

"If Russia achieves its objectives in Ukraine, its territorial ambitions will continue. Russia will stay a fundamental threat to Europe's safety in the foreseeable future, Especially given its increasingly aggressive attitude on atomic weapons and the deployment of atomic arsenals in Belarus", the European Commission is diagnosing.

So there is an unprecedented situation. In an authoritative and strategically crucial document, the European Union identifies Russia as an existential threat to the future of the EU. This is precisely what is happening in the case of the NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022. At that time, the associate States of the Alliance identified Russia as the main origin of a direct threat to NATO security.

"Yes, this paper takes all illusions about Russia and the EU's relation with Russia. It even highlights Russia's atomic threat – explains Interii 1 of the EU officials who worked on the White Book.

"White Book of Defense". EU wall behind Ukraine

Another fundamental component of the White Book is describing the importance of Ukraine and its future for the EU, as well as identifying mutually beneficial cooperation opportunities. Ukraine was presented in a clear contrast to Russia, which in view of the uncertain support of the fresh U.S. administration for Kiev is to show that Ukraine's union will not leave Russia behind.

"The future of Ukraine is fundamental to Europe's future as a whole" – state the authors of the EU document. In turn, broadly understood support for Ukraine in the war against Russia is "an immediate and most pressing task for European defence". ‘Ukraine is now a frontline for European defence, building on the state's invasion, which is the largest single threat to our common security" – We read.

The era of the peace dividend has long passed. The safety architecture we relied on can no longer be taken for granted

The White Book provides for a wide scope of EU military assistance and cooperation with Ukraine, which the study collectively referred to as “the porcupine strategy”. It is intended to increase defence capacity Ukraine to specified an degree that it could scare off possible aggressors in the future and safe long-term peace after the war with Russia. "Therefore, the imperative of the EU and the associate States is an urgent increase in military aid to Ukraine", stresses Brussels.

In the light of the Russian threat, the EU is committed to "a bold election and building a Defence Union that will guarantee peace on our continent through unity and strength." "The EU is to blame for its allies from NATO, Ukraine, but above all for themselves, European citizens and the values it represents. The EU and its associate States must face a historical challenge“ – summarizes the authors of the White Book.

Seven areas of European security

To start implementing affirmative developments in the field of EU defence, The EU has bowed over years of its own negligence, but besides over the challenges that present-day armed conflicts generate, with peculiar emphasis on the war in Ukraine. In this way, the European Commission has identified 7 key areas for enhancing EU defence capabilities.

To meet these objectives The ReArm Europe plan will be key, which focuses on expanding the investment opportunities of associate States and additional backing for enhancing the defence capacity of EU countries. There are no surprises on this issue, due to the fact that the most crucial EU politicians have been talking about these mechanisms for any time now.

We have thus loosened the budgetary criteria so that associate States can compose back 1.5% of GDP allocated to defence from their public debt. The mechanics will operate retroactively from 2021 onwards. According to the EC calculations, this is intended to enable associate States to usage additional EUR 650 billion for arms. The thing is, any of this money has already been invested, and now it's just going to be settled. Another thing, is an optional mechanism, not a mandatory mechanism, so it is not said how many countries and on what scale it will benefit. The amount of EUR 650 billion is impressive, but alternatively theoretical.

"The Commission expects that most associate States, which spend a lot on defence and have a problem with the excessive deficit procedure, will request the activation of this clause. We've been looking at the biggest players who don't save on defense, and for them, it'll surely be an attractive tool. – says Interii origin in the EC, active in the work on the White Book.

The second component in financing an ambitious EU arms policy is the SAFE Action for Europe, which assumes that €150 billion will be raised on global markets. – States that will search loans will enter into negotiations with the European Commission, and this will on their behalf take these loans on the financial markets and find the conditions under which they will repay them. In any case these will be individual repayment terms – explains our interviewer with the EC.

Yes, this paper is defrauding Russia and the EU's relations with Russia. It even highlights Russia's atomic threat

These 2 mechanisms are intended to complement the loosening of the European Investment Bank (EIB) policy as regards lending investment in defence and defence. Unfortunately, as our interlocutors say, the EC has been negotiating with the EIB for about 2 years and the bank is not willing to change its position. This would be crucial for Brussels, on the another hand, as it would send a message to commercial banks that financing safety and defence areas would become a regular breadth for key financial institutions.

The package of financial solutions prepared by the EC for Europe’s reinforcement complements the ability to redirect unused funds from cohesion policy to defence policy and mobilise private capital.

EU White Paper. Target: 2030. Full readiness for conflict

All of this comes down to the eventual goal that the EC wants to achieve, namely the aforementioned " 2030 Preparedness". The European Commission addresses Eurosceptic concerns in the White Paper and ensures that associate States hold full control of their armed forces – from the applicable military doctrine, through deployment, to the diagnosis of purchasing needs after finishing.

‘Moreover, The EU is always obliged to act without prejudice to the circumstantial nature of the safety and defence policies of circumstantial associate States and take into account the safety and defence interests of each EU member," we read.

By facilitating the acquisition of additional resources, reducing unnecessary bureaucracy, supporting public and private investment in the arms sector, and coordinating combined purchases of military equipment The EU wants to guarantee that in 2030 all EU countries have full combat readiness.

But that is not the end. ‘The White Paper is to be supplemented by the ‘Union strategy of Preparedness’. This is simply a fresh strategical paper that will "determine an integrated approach addressing all military preparedness risks in the event of conflicts and crises, and the EU interior safety Strategy, providing a comprehensive and harmonised framework to prevent, detect and respond effectively to safety threats."

Luke Rogoish