Campaign in the USA: 2 "October surprises" in July

ine.org.pl 1 year ago

Zdjęcie: Chińska polityka energetyczna (43)

Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk

Analysis briefly:

– the most crucial event of the last 10 days was resignation Joe Biden from applying for another word and actually taking over the function of the denomination in spe Democratic organization by Vice president Kamala Harris;

– Harris already has: Joe Biden's support and key politicians of his party, declarations from adequate to get a formal nomination of the number of delegates for the Chicago organization Convention (19-22 August) and crucial funds for campaigning;

– Biden resigned under large force from his political environment, including key Democratic organization politicians and donors; the change of Democratic candidate forces the redefining of the campaigns of both major political camps;

– replacing Biden with Kamala Harris resulted in completion moment Donald Trump and his political camp, which lasted from the Biden-Trump debate by an unsuccessful assassination of Trump's life to the Milwaukee Republican organization convention (15-18 July); polls show Trump holding a lead over Harris, but mostly little than Biden;

– a surprise may be not only the fact of Biden's resignation, but besides the pace at which the Democratic organization managed to rise after the chaos surrounding doubts about his candidacy and unite around Harris. However, work on maintaining this unity will continue.

Biden "Johnson moment"

July 21 in an entry posted simultaneously on respective social networks Joe Biden announced that he would not search a second word justifying his decision with concern for the interests of the Democratic organization (PD) and the full country. He added that in the following months he would focus solely on the performance of his duties as president [1].

On the same day, in a separate entry, Biden expressed his support and support for the current Vice president Kamala Harris in her efforts to appoint Democrats to the office of president of the United States [2]. Biden became the first incumbent president since 1968 to retreat his candidacy during the election run (previously done by Lyndon Johnson).

Biden's decision was preceded by respective weeks of media speculation around his candidacy, appeals by many politicians to the president to retreat from the election race [3] and possibly inspired by elected democratic politicians (and key donors), controlled by leaks [4] media announce his resignation [5]. The controlled nature may be indicated mainly by the fact that Biden was in isolation at the time due to the illness (Covid-19) in Delaware, did not appear in public and was mainly in contact with the ellipse of his most trusted advisors [6]. Just the day before Biden announced his resignation, he tweeted that he was going to win the election [7]. On 21 July before noon, president of state PD structures in 7 key states (swing states) expressed their full support for Biden's presidential candidacy [8]. Even the most trusted colleagues were to learn about Biden's decision at the last minute [9].

Biden's withdrawal from the election means that the president of the United States has succumbed to force exerted on him by the leadership of PD, many of her another politicians (at national and state level; both private and high-ranking, e.g. Nancy Pelosi), key donors, and previously favored Biden media. This force was built consistently starting with the failed debate against Donald Trump on June 27. first pressures from, for example, PD leaders in legislature (Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer) and Nancy Pelosi did not have any effect, resulting in further media force building.

At the same time, there have been unanswered calls from any observers to have Joe Biden step down from his post as president at this phase [10]Which would consequence in Kamala Harris taking office. specified a step would undoubtedly strengthen the current vice president in the campaign, as she would compete with Donald Trump from the position of head of state. Biden's resignation at a further phase of the run is presently unrealistic. However, it was already the resignation of the moving itself that caused Biden to take the background picture, while the audience's attention focused on Kamala Harris.

The Harris Campaign: Building Stage

Although the Harris election program has not yet been published, possibly her presidency would be a continuation of Joe Biden's rule. In interior policy, the moderately progressive Biden agenda could be even strengthened, with social programmes for combating poverty, extending labour rights (including paid parental leave), access to healthcare and strengthening the mediate class [11].

Harris has no comparable experience with Biden in national politics and although she has been a senator for 5 years, her ability to forge compromises in legislature may be less.

Based on the current abroad policy directions of the current administration, rivalry with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and its deterrence against the Indo-Pacific would inactive be Washington's priorities. At the same time, the US NATO engagement would be maintained at its current level. The support of administration for Ukraine would stay unwavering, but its majesty would depend on Congress. Assistance to Israel would be maintained, but greater emphasis on the protection of the Palestinian population could be expected and possibly a two-state solution [12].

On the rhetorical dimension, Harris focuses on creating a affirmative imagination of equal opportunities and opportunities for all Americans; on the another hand, he tries to score D. Trump for his legal problems and to prosecute further limitation of the right to abortion. Harris has referred respective times on the run tour to her experience as a prosecutor (including the lawyer General of the State of California) who opposes Trump's transgressions and lawsuits [13].

In the individual dimension, a possible presidency of Harris would most likely usage the staff that formed the Obama and Biden administration, with the name of candidate Harris inactive not published as vice president. Among them are: Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Governors Tim Walz (Minnesota), JB Pritzker (Illinois), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) [14]. The latter, very popular in its state, could aid Harris safe Pennsylvania's 19 electorate votes.

Although Harris very rapidly assured herself of the declarative support of her political environment before the convention, however, work on ensuring its constituency will continue, as Harris listed as its crucial mark for the coming weeks [1 5]. This is understandable given that the Republican organization is full united around D. Trump, as confirmed by the Milwaukee Convention.

In addition to supporting her political environment, Harris raised crucial funds in a very short time to run the campaign. According to a message by her run staff of 24 July in 3 days, about $126 million of contributions were received from tiny donors and about 150 million to the Harris-supporting election committee Future Forward [16]. This includes the funds raised for the run erstwhile the denomination in spe Democratics were inactive J. Biden, which would likely be utilized for the Harris campaign. Their full value is 240 million, of which 91 million are at hand and the remaining amount was collected by the election committees [17].

Republican run Reset

In the Republican Party, Joe Biden was seen as a weak candidate whose imperfections were well known and put him as an easy mark for attacks Even more so, he has late lost the support of his organization and the media. Its withdrawal from the presidential race is so not advantageous for D. Trump.

Although K. Harris, in turn, in the eyes of Republicans, is simply a politician out of nowhere, without success and representing an highly left-wing agenda, however, her raising to the level of the PD denomination raises fresh challenges and requires redrafting the narrative.

The attacks focus primarily on her deficiency of experience, progressive views and failure to win in solving the migration crisis at the border with Mexico (in 2021. Biden commissioned Harris to work to destruct the causes of the crisis in cooperation with Central American countries [18]). The fight against illegal immigration is 1 of the main axes of Republican run programming. On the another hand, D. Trump must be aware that excessive and careless attacks against Harris can further harm him among the female electorate.

At the same time, Republicans effort to harm the Harris candidacy in at least 2 ways. Firstly, the national Election Commission (FEC) has filed a complaint against the effort of democrats to usage funds raised by J. Biden's run for the Harris run [19]. This complaint may not be dealt with before the election due to FEC failure (still pending 2016 complaints) [20]. Secondly, D. Trump tries to dissuade Harris as a candidate by delaying her declaration to participate in the debate of presidential candidates until Harris is officially elected at the convention [21].

The first polls published following the change of Democratic candidate show Trump's advantage over Harris, but it is little than Trump's advantage over Biden – both nationally and in key states [22♪[23]. Public opinion polls so far besides show very low public support for JD Vance [24] and increasing social sympathy for both Harris (which could be the consequence of Biden's resignation and the effect of freshness) and Trump (which could be the consequence of an assassination on his life) [25].

Conclusions

The failed assassination effort on Donald Trump's life and the change of Democratic organization candidate were of the nature of a premature alleged "October surprise", an unexpected event that changes the campaign's course at the last minute. They forced the run to be redefined by both major political parties and put the Democratic organization ahead of a imagination of chaos, which it is likely to avoid. The nomination for Harris at the August convention will be the final test for loyalty in the ranks of the party, its organizational fitness and adaptability to changing situation and the functioning of procedures.

Although D. Trump is presently theoretically the race's favourite and maintains an advantage in the latest polls, they simultaneously show that K. Harris may have a greater chance than Joe Biden in competing with Trump.

Its assets are: the effect of freshness, the fact that it is the exact other of the very polarizing Trump and possibly intellectual advantage – it has already achieved more in politics than expected, while for Trump another defeat, this time against a woman, would be double humiliating and could mean the end of his political career. The election of JD Vance as Vice president will most likely not aid D. Trump in the eyes of moderate/undecided voters, as well as the departure from the calls for national unity after the assassination. Over a fewer weeks, the chances of candidates taking the office of president can be even.

It's hard to tell whether Joe Biden had to back out. On the 1 hand, the leadership of the PD put him in the face of the withdrawal of organisational and financial support; on the another hand, he had a guaranteed nomination and if he had received it formally at the August convention, the PD would have no choice but to full engage on his side. It may be disappointing for him that in fresh weeks his political environment has mostly turned distant from him, and previously favorable media have joined the attacks on the basis of controversial grounds. erstwhile Biden besides revealed symptoms of mediocre psycho-physical condition (minorly better than today) in 2020, they did not inform about many of the accidents of the portrayal Democratic candidate. However, the last almost 4 years have shown that Biden, despite clear signs of old age, is able to effectively and successfully hold the position of president, although campaigning naturally requires another skills.

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