Two fresh polls on the last straight. But there's 1 catch in these results

natemat.pl 2 months ago
In fact, the final countdown remains until the presidential election. And it's no wonder that all next poll will rise quite a few emotion. In 2 fresh studies we inactive have a clear leader. However, these results do not take into account the crucial minute of the electoral campaign.


In the survey of the Institute for marketplace and Social investigation of IBRiS for "Politics" in the lead is Rafał Trzaskowski with a score of 33.7 percent. Karol Nawrocki finished second – he picked up precisely 22.6 percent. The lowest place on the podium was awarded to Sławomir Mentzen, on which 11.8 percent of the respondents would vote.

In the remainder, there is no specified gap in numbers. Simon Holownia would win 7.1 percent of the vote. Magdalena Biejat would choose 5.8 percent of respondents, while Adrian Zandberg would choose 5.6 percent.

Grzegorz Braun could number on 3.4 percent support. After 1.2 percent they picked up Joanna Senyszyn and Krzysztof Stanowski. The another seats were: Marek Jakubiak (1.1%), Artur Bartoszewicz (0.8%) and Maciej Maciak and Marek Woch (both 0.2%). Moreover, 6.3% of respondents are indecisive voters.

If Trzaskowski met Nawrocki in the second round, the results would be 54.5 percent to 37.7% respectively.

Trzaskowski leader of 2 polls


And another poll – this time it is an IBRiS survey for "Rzeczpospolita". It turned out that Trzaskowski would have 32.3 percent of the vote in the first circular of the election. Nawrocki could number on 25.2%. The podium closes Mentzen with a score of 11.2 percent.

This survey besides shows that Trzaskowski would win with a considerable advantage with Nawrock in the second round. The KO candidate would support 53.9% of respondents. The PiS candidate would indicate 38.4%.

What's the connection between these 2 polls? The date of their conduct, which is crucial for the last simple campaign. The survey for "Politics" was carried out on 7-10 May on a group of 2,000 people by CATI (phone interviews). In turn for "Rzeczpospolita" on 11-12.05 by CATI method on a example of 1073 people.

This means that the results do not take into account the moods after the last presidential debate held on the evening of 12 May on TVP. Although this pre-election clash most likely did not overturn the "table", any details may have decided on the sympathy of voters. Who won and who lost in this debate? You'll read more about this on Theme.

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