The last poll before election silence shows how the presidential race in Poland is shaping. According to the latest investigation commissioned by Virtual Poland, Rafał Trzaskowski remains the leader of the 1st circular of elections. However, his advantage over the main rival, Karol Nawrocki, is definitely decreasing. In turn, in a possible second round, Trzaskowski inactive holds a crucial advantage over the right-wing candidate.
In the latest study, support for Rafał Trzaskowski is 31.5 percent, which means a decrease of 1.7 percent points compared to the survey last week. Meanwhile, Karol Nawrocki recorded a clear increase – he won 26.6% of the vote, which means an increase of 3.4 percent points. This dynamics caused a crucial simplification in the distance between candidates.
In 3rd place, Sławomir Mentzen ranks with a score of 11.7 percent, but he noted a decrease in support by 1.9 percent points. Simon Holovnia maintains a unchangeable position with the support of 7.5 percent, but remains beyond the podium. Magdalena Biejat gained a tiny increase in support – from 6.1 to 6.7 percent, which gives her 4th place just behind the podium.
Other quotations besides show slight changes: Adrian Zandberg increased his support to 4.4 percent, Grzegorz Braun reached 4.1 percent and Joanna Senyszyn recorded a jump of 1.8 percent points, reaching 2.4 percent. Marek Jakubiak and Krzysztof Stanowski besides recorded increases to 2.0% and 1.8% respectively, and the another candidates together won 1.3% of the votes.
In the case of a possible second circular of elections, in the event of a confrontation between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, the poll points to a decisive triumph of the current leader. Trzaskowski can number on 56.2 percent support among strong voters, while Nawrocki would gain 43.8 percent. specified results give Trzaskowski a clear advantage and the best chances of taking over the presidency.
The survey was conducted on 13-15 May 2025 by United Surveys by IBRiS, commissioned by Virtual Poland. The trial included 1,500 adults from Poland, selected randomly and quota, to reflect the country's social and demographic structure. The mix-mode method was used, combining telephone interviews (CATI) and net (CAWI), which improves the reliability of the results. The estimation mistake is up to 3 percent points with a 95 % assurance level.
It is worth recalling that the period of election silence is approaching, which begins at midnight from Friday to Saturday, which is 24 hours before the day of the vote. During this time, campaigning, publishing polls and electoral agitations are banned. This aims to guarantee that voters have a peaceful environment to make an election decision without external influence. The silence lasts until the vote is over, usually until 9:00 p.m. on election day, but in exceptional cases may be extended.
In summary, the latest poll shows a dynamic fight for first place in the 1st circular of elections, with the falling advantage of Trzaskowski and the increasing support of Nawrocki. Despite this, however, it is the current leader who maintains the comfortable position of the favourite in the 2nd round.
