According to Onetu's latest presidential forecast, Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate of the Civic Coalition, has recorded the lowest level of support since the start of the campaign. presently it can number for 33.9%, which means a decrease of 1.2 percent points over a twelve days.
Although Trzaskowski is inactive in the race, this consequence is another decline in voter assurance after the erstwhile failure of 1.1 percent points.
Nawrocki grows, Trzaskowski loses. Leaders change energy
In the other situation is the opponent of Trzaskowski – Karol Nawrocki, the president of the IPN and the PiS candidate – who gains 2 percent points in the forecast and can boast the consequence of 27.3%. This is the biggest increase among all candidates and a return to the level of popularity a fewer months ago. There's a chance he'll be the 1 with Trzaskowski in the second round.
On the another hand, Sławomir Mentzen's position was weak, which was a dangerous contender to enter the second circular only recently. His support fell to 14.8%, which means another period of failure – this time by 1.7 points. The distance to Nawrocki grows, and the time to rebuild the election base shrinks rapidly.
Coalitions gain quietly. In the second round, the advantage of Trzaskowski besides melts
Although Trzaskowski loses, this does not mean that his voters go to competition. For this, coalitions from the ruling camp gain. Szymon Hołownia reaches 7.4 percent (up by 0.3 pp.), Magdalena Biejat – 4.3 percent (+0.8 pp.), and Adrian Zandberg approaches it with a score of 4.2 percent (+0.2 pp.). A full of 1.3 percent points – this means that voters are looking for alternatives inside their own block.
Grzegorz Braun with 3.1% (a decrease of 0.5 p.p.), Krzysztof Stanowski with 2 percent and Marek Jakubiak with 1.3% were in the next position. The remaining candidates accomplish a full of 1.7%.
In the forecast second round, Trzaskowski inactive remains a favourite, but his advantage is melting. Currently, according to Onetu's forecast, he wins with Nawrockie 53 to 47 percent. However, it should be noted that Nawrocki reduces distance and gains another 0.4 points here, which should alert the Warsaw President's staff strongly.
