Trump has already done a “deal” on minerals once. “Then he stabbed his ally in the back”

Voldymyr Zelenski declared that Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiating table and sign mineral agreements with the US. The declaration was a reaction to Donald Trump's decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.

This is not the first time Trump wants to make specified a deal. A akin situation occurred in 2017 and afraid the Republic of Afghanistan. The war-torn country was mostly dependent on the aid of the United States. Under Trump's pressure, then Afghan president Ashraf Ghani agreed to sign an agreement with the US to extract uncommon earth metals. A year later, Trump began negotiations with the Taliban and yet killed a "deal" with them in 2020. Afghanistan is inactive under Taliban control today.

Of the dangerous similarities of these 2 situations alarms Dr. Karol Wilczyński from the Jagiellonian Center for Migration Studies.

"Afghanistan was socially seen in the US as completely unnecessary to the United States. Trump was much easier to leave him to his destiny without actually seeing any criticism. Each of his actions was accepted alternatively positively, it was crucial that he ended the war, that America would not waste money on an operation that gave her nothing. Even any Democrats praised his actions, says Wilczyński.

Emphasises that in the context of Ukraine there is no specified apparent view, the Americans measure their commitment to conflict with Russia much more positive.

The expert besides points out the crucial difference between the 2 war-torn states. – Afghanistan in 2017 was much more dependent on American military aid than Ukraine is now – Wilczyński says. It calculates that America's support accounts for about 20%, Ukraine produces more than half of what it uses in the war itself, 25 percent is aid from European UnionAnd the another fewer percent are from another allies specified as Britain, Argentina, Turkey Or Japan.

All that matters is Trump and Putin's business.

“Dealing with Putin, speaking Trump’s language, most likely started before he became president,” notes Dr. Wilczyński.

Since November there have been unofficial talks, in late January the first attempts to contact Putin were announced, and later there was a long telephone call. – This happened outside Ukraine, she was excluded just as the Government of the Republic of Afghanistan had been excluded from talks a fewer years earlier. In both cases, it's just Putin and Trump's interests, nothing else matters,” our interviewer emphasizes.

Wilczyński admits that the cards are now held by European countries. “The worst script is that all allies turn around and leave Ukraine to Putin. Then she'll gotta capitulate due to the fact that she can't defend herself, but it's an incredible scenario. There is inactive Turkey in the game, which has a powerful army and will not let Russia to grow its influence. It is not in her interest and will surely do a lot so that Ukraine does not stay alone now. But you gotta remember that Trump has already stabbed his ally once. And be very careful with his promises and contracts – he analyses.

The expert points out that Afghanistan had no allies, which is why this The darkest script came true. – Afghanistan was alone between Pakistan and Iranwhich had in their interest to overthrow the then government. Similarly, the PRC, which entered Kabul with a business offer before the dust of American aircraft subsided. Putin had contacts with the Taliban mainly through his ally, Iran," says Dr. Wilczyński. He adds that for Russia and Iran, the Taliban are a much better partner than the Government of the 3rd Republic of Afghanistan.

– The German Intelligence has already informed about the Taliban's relations with Russia – he estimates. This includes organizing attacks by Afghan knifemen who attack on the streets of German cities to disrupt the election process and influence the outcome. Our interviewer admits that there are many indications that they may be hired by Russian agents, or intimidated by Taliban Afghans whose families live in Afghanistan. “The Russians besides recruited Afghan soldiers with the Taliban for the current war in Ukraine,” Wilczyński points out.

Conclusion of the mineral contract

Zelenski on platform X on Tuesday, after America stopped military aid for Ukraine, reported that “Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiating table as shortly as possible to bring lasting peace closer.” He added: “My squad and I are ready to work under the strong leadership of president Trump to accomplish lasting peace.” The Ukrainian president besides expressed his willingness to sign a mineral agreement with the US "at any time and in any convenient format".

– Even if Zelenski signs a deal on minerals with Trump, she will not service Ukraine and does not mean an automatic resumption of US military support – says Dr. Wilczyński.

However, it notes that signing the agreement can aid to normalise the relations between European countries and the United States. “Zelenski is likely to humble himself in front of King Donald so that Trump does not resent Europe for supporting Ukraine. And we know that he could do that, and for Europe it would not be a affirmative improvement of events. It seems to me that from the UK or Germany it is simply a condition for Zelenski to get along with Trump – he analyses the Interia interviewer.

Money for Ukraine from Europe

On Tuesday, the Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen informed about the plan to re-arm Europe. It contains 5 points, the most crucial of which is the anticipation of applying the escape clause to EU fiscal rules so that EU associate States can increase their defence spending. According to the EC chief, the plan to re-arm Europe could mobilise nearly EUR 800 billion for defence spending.

Von der Leyen stressed that investments in defence would produce fast results, This will enable EU associate States to aid Ukraine. We besides ask our caller to support our neighbors.

– This support from Europe can be much bigger – it is already bigger than American – if we launch frozen Russian oligarchs. If specified aid is not blocked by pro-Russian politicians of the kind Orban or Fico, then the script for Ukraine will not be black, the destiny of Afghanistan will not be repeated, but it must be taken into account that this has happened 1 day – says Dr. Karol Wilczyński.