An investment MP and close advisor to Russian president Vladimir Putin, Kirill Dmitriev, praised US president Donald Trump for organising Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, the first specified direct dialog between the fighting countries since the beginning of 2022.
Trump and his squad "have made impossible possible", bringing Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. Dmitriev wrote on Xthat the Istanbul gathering is held "against all odds and fierce resistance" and that if "it is not derailed at the last minute, it may be a historical step towards peace".
Dmitriev besides mentioned Vice president J.D. Vance, Trump peculiar Envoy Steve Witkoff and State Secretary Marco Rubio – the last 2 who are present in Istanbul – as main mediators. The Kremlin spent its first years of conflict, criticizing Biden's administration for continually fueling war and thwarting dialogue, which led Washington-Moscow's relation to a fresh historical bottom.
How We noticed earlier., president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski is in Turkeywhere to meet president Erdogan – but separately in The capital Ankara – and boasts that "I am here" and Putin is not. Zelenski even called a Russian delegation, composed mostly of lower rank officials, "false."
Meanwhile, president Trump, attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a writer why the American leader is not personally present in Turkey during talks:
"Why would he go if I didn't?"
"I didn't plan on going, and I didn't think he would if I didn't."
"But we have men there. Marco does a fantastic job, Marco is there..."
The fact remains that Putin does not have much reason or motivation to leave, and war analysts mostly recognise that he remains in the driver's seat both militaryly and with Ukrainian forces on ropes.
Zelenski has not offered major concessions so far, and issues specified as permanent control of Crimea and 4 east territories stay disputed points for Moscow. Consequently, it is improbable that there will be any crucial breakthrough in Istanbul, but The fact that both sides are even at the table is simply a large achievement.
The following is an crucial summary of what can be expected in Istanbul and what is the stake for both sides, taken from a fresh analysis of liable Statecraft, Istanbul 2.0: Know erstwhile to halt them, know erstwhile to fold them:
* * Oh, * *
What's changed since then?
Ukraine will enter Istanbul talks with a weaker position than in 2022.
Western financial and economical support for Ukraine is no longer as solid as then. Since the G7 agreement on a $50 billion debt package in June 2024, no major economical aid and support have been made available. While European countries have arranged new economical aid for Ukraine in April, this is not in a position to compensate for the simplification in US support.
Territorially, Russia withdrew from Kiev as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost the area in Kharkov and Kherson in late 2022. Since the end of 2023, however, Russia has systematically gained more territories in Donbasa. Thus, while both sides have points on the board, Russia presently maintains a military advantage on the battlefield and seems improbable to change that. In particular, these 2 factors were behind president Trump's February message that Ukraine no cards to play.
What hasn't changed?
NATO membership is inactive out of the question
Verified papers provided by the "New York Times" last June confirmed that the neutrality of Ukraine and its non-membership in NATO was a central issue agreed in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a "permanent neutral state" that would never join NATO or let abroad forces to station in its territory.
Ukraine seems to have no way of withdrawing from this, given its presently weakened negotiating position and the view expressed by president Trump that Ukraine's membership of NATO It's not practical. Although the fresh German abroad Minister Johann Wadephul reiterated late that Ukraine's road to NATO is irreversible, most agree, privately and publicly, that Ukraine's road to NATO is difficult, if not impossible.
At the moment, talking alone is simply a immense breakthrough.
Talks in Istanbul wouldn't have happened if Trump administration She didn't push them so hard. We do not request to go back to the debate "do or don't" on why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul Agreement in April 2022. It is clear that Ukraine dug out not only due to the fact that it did not negociate with Russia, but besides by excluding Russia from all talks about peace in Ukraine.
By agreeing in rule to Ukraine's adoption of neutral status, Zelenski pushed his own ten-point peace plan. The aim was, among another things, to retreat Russia's troops to the pre-2014 border, namely to surrender Crimea and Donbas and make a Euro-Atlantic safety architecture, which meant Ukraine's accession to NATO. Peace summits were held in various countries, which explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in an event in Switzerland on 15 June 2024.
During this event president Zelenski was more dug up by resisting any engagement with Russia until the complete withdrawal of her troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. "Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow, waiting for nothing – if They'll leave our legal territories."He said.
Even after president Trump was elected European leaders They stuck to the line that "only Ukraine can decide what peace means". I do not see the circumstances in which president Kamala Harris would have led president Zelenski to negotiate. Tomorrow's talks would not have taken place if the Trump administration had not broken all the cargo of Ukrainian and European shells to scope this point.
A liable Governance continues:
The biggest problem now is the territory
Although at the time he was wrongly ridiculed by media mainstream Steve Witkoff He rightly noted in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that territorial issues in Ukraine would be the hardest to solve. Russia's decision of October 2022 to formally annex 4 circuits: Kherson, Zaporo, Donetsk and Luhansk changed these calculations. Russia, however, does not have full territorial control over any of those circuits which are cut by the mediate by a fierce front line.
Establishing a control line after the war is with a certain percent of the most problematic challenge. This will be an highly delicate topic, and European allies will reject any greater concessions to Russia, as they did erstwhile the thought that the US could de jure recognise Russian business Crimea.
The most apparent solution is the de facto designation of occupation, a Cyprus-style script that does not prevent future Ukrainian membership in the European Union. Even this will require a detailed agreement on matters related to the demilitarisation of the control line and the enforcement of the ceasefire.
The sanctions are most likely tricky, but besides manageable
How I told you before., there is simply a immense scope of the plan which allows for the immediate abolition of most measures with zero environmental impact, while phasing out the remaining measures at points agreed by both parties. The most hard issue remains the $300 billion frozen Russian assets, mostly located in Belgium. Russia showed readiness to surrender These measures to support the reconstruction of Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.
But there's texture. The release of these recovery measures would immediately remove the origin of interest payments that meet Ukraine's commitments from title of $50 billion debt to G7, agreed in June 2024. However, there is simply a more general political question: how much of the freed funds will be spent in Ukraine itself, and how much of Russia's occupied Ukraine, where most of the war harm occurred? The United States must proceed to exert force to guarantee that talks stay on track.
The U.S. presence in Istanbul will be essential to prevent Ukraine's withdrawal from talks in particular. so send Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg Makes sense. The erstwhile enjoys the trust of the Russian side, while the second built relations in Ukraine. Their presence serves to advance the process until the deal can be pushed abroad and the fights can end.
It should be remembered that the talks in 2022 lasted a period and a half and the circumstances changed significantly, as I indicated above. Although there was speculation that President Trump I'm not certain it's essential if president Putin doesn't take part in it himself. Knowing the Russians, I believe Putin will want his own "moment of meeting" with the president of the United States on terms that the Russian side can better arrange choreographically. In fact, this could be a reward for Russia's engagement in this process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the US.
Translated by Google Translator
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/
