A smooth retreat of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dniepr, according to any analysts, would confirm the rumours of ongoing backstage talks on the Moscow-Kijów line and the readiness of both parties to end the fighting. However, the reality seems very far from specified a scenario.
Retreat from the right-hand Chersonish
On 11 November, after 8 months of occupation, Russian presence on the right bank of Dnieper ended, and thus in Kherson. However, the retreat announced by the Russian Minister of National Defence himself 2 days earlier had already lasted for respective weeks. In contrast to the abrupt and poorly prepared retreat operation from the east part of the Kharkiv region, the evacuation of the garrison from the right bank of Dniepr carried out in a methodical and orderly manner. The withdrawal of troops from the front in the north-east ended in advanced losses on the Russian side, which was peculiarly powerfully demonstrated by the mass of abandoned dense equipment under Izium. This was very well documented and confirmed in both authoritative and unofficial communications of both fighting armies. On the another hand, the reflection of actions in Khersonszczyńska leads to a proposal to implement the planned plans for organized evacuation, which began almost a period before its completion.
Over the last fewer weeks, Ukrainian artillery has constantly fired on Russian garrison facilities on the western shore of Dnieper. Supply bases, ammunition depots, convoys, transhipment points, railway stations were attacked, but above all crossings on the river. The serious harm to the Antonov Bridge, as well as the adjacent railway bridge forced the Russians to usage the pontoon crossings, and erstwhile they besides began to be destroyed – with ferry crossings. However, compared to solid bridges, these proved to be highly inefficient, and their low bandwidth was first demonstrated during the force of the Ukrainian army on individual sections of the South-West front. Besides, ferries were chosen as a mark by Ukrainian artillery. The nail to the coffin of Russian logistics in the south was a serious harm to the Crimean Bridge, which occurred as a consequence of the detonation of October 8. This crossing was the main supply way for troops fighting under Cherson due to the fact that this was the only railway connection.
Still artillery shellings, supply shortages and further Ukrainian strikes, as of mid-October, ended with the Ukrainian approach under the village of Mylowe to the north-east of Chersonia – all of this shook the Russian capacity to keep the cape on the right bank of Dnieper.
The anticipation of a full retreat was mentioned (not directly) by Gen. Surowikin immediately after he was appointed commander-in-chief of the Russian troops active in Ukraine. He spoke about the request to make "difficult decisions". It was speculated that it could be about the usage of atomic weapons, which the Russians only reinforced in their message, wanting to scare Kiev and its western allies. In fact, they were already aware of the impossibility of surviving under Cherson. The evacuation of residents of the city and neighboring towns began first. It was speculated that the Russians might have wanted to usage civilians as surviving shields, and present we know that this was indeed the case. At the same time as the departure of part of the population, a crucial part of the Russian garrison was evacuated, primarily dense equipment, including artillery and most armored vehicles, but besides the selection of air-desanant units. In their place, battalions formed from late mobilized soldiers were moved. They replaced contract units on the front line, and due to hard weather conditions and mud to which Chersonian fields had turned, Ukrainians could not carry out offensive operations on a wider scale at the time. Thus, the retreat took place in comparative order, disrupted only by regular Ukrainian crossings.
The Russian propaganda message from the second half of October can besides be viewed differently today. The conspiracy explanation of the Ukrainians shortly blowing up a dam in Nowa Kachowec proved the necessity to evacuate residents and gave justification for a full retreat. In the same categories, a message about the strong commitment of “westers”, especially from Poland, who were to focus on the front and prepare for the offensive on Kherson.
On 9 November, an authoritative tv speech announced and confirmed that Russian troops would retreat to the left bank of Dnieper. At this stage, however, the retreat process was going to the end. On the right bank remained units of alleged mobs, whose task was to slow down Ukrainian attack and gradual withdrawal into the river. However, the morale of those soldiers who, in the news of the retreat, were to begin to retreat in complete disorder toward crossings, leading to gaps in defensive lines and a full crack in the front. The Ukrainians have gone to Kherson. The next day the Ukrainian leaders entered the city, and the next day its full safety was announced.
These losses active low combat units, which the Russians could have included in the price of the retreat itself. A condition of the dense equipment that was abandoned or blown up was besides lost to prevent it from getting into Ukrainian hands. According to Russian transmissions, however, the Russians were to endure the biggest losses erstwhile crossing the river in the final phase due to Ukrainian shelling. Without the shields of surviving shields, Russian soldiers fled under dense artillery fire. However, the Russians made it hard for Ukrainian troops to prosecute retreating soldiers or to fire artillery on them by blowing up all bridges on the Ingulec River and smaller watercourses or by mined main roads. This slowed the Ukrainian attack and made it hard to bring the haubic to shooting positions. Published in fresh days, photographs and recordings confirm the interception of at least a twelve pieces of equipment by Ukrainian soldiers, but these are not conquests that match those from Izium.
The explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian agreement on the retreat from Chersonia comes from the excessive expectations of any analysts after fresh Ukrainian successes in the east. In fact, the Russians were forced to retreat by actions of Ukrainian troops that led to the inability to keep the garrison on the right bank of Dnieper. The Ukrainians clearly did not intend to gain the area by force, seeking to reduce possible losses among their own soldiers who would gotta gain a heavy fortified Kherson. Above all, however, they wanted to maximise the failure of civilians and reduce the harm to the city's buildings. Thus, from the beginning of the summer, Ukrainians started activities aimed at maximising the effectiveness of Russian logistics through continuous fire of crossings on Dnieper. A dense conflict for Kherson would tie a large part of the Ukrainian army for long months and would end in serious losses, which would be completed for months to come. The battalion for the city may have become a repetition of the actions in Mariupol, which ended in a Russian victory, but at the price of very advanced losses and a spin of Russian units active in this direction. Ukrainians couldn't afford this scenario.
It should besides be remembered that images of demolition in Kherson and pictures of killed and injured civilians would be water on the mill of Russian propaganda, and in order to keep support from the west at the same level, Ukrainians must act highly prudently. The past weeks have been further attempts to break Russian defensive positions on various sections of the Kherson Front. Depending on the direction of the attack, they ended in limited successes but, above all, rather serious losses. It is easy to imagine that the closer to Chersonia, the Russian defence would only be better organized and prepared. All of this led to the right conclusion that the Russians would be more favorable to force them to retreat than to decide to conquer the city in combat. The goal was to free the area, not kill as many Russians as possible or destruct the infrastructure.
Are we nearing the end of the war?
The liberation of Cherson besides has a political aspect. Ukraine has shown openly that its aim is to free the occupied south of the country and has proven to Western partners that it is able to accomplish the objectives pursued. Each of the last successes of the Ukrainian army on the 1 hand increases the morale of the Ukrainian army and nation and undermines the spirit of Russians, and on the another hand favorably branches for Ukraine's relations with the West. The victories prove that Ukraine's support is "profitable" and lead to weakening Russian potential, bringing the war to an end. With subsequent defeats on the front, the Russians are increasingly expressing their desire to resume talks about the suspension of battles. It is Russia that clearly depends on the truce at this point. On the side of Kiev there is no desire to negociate and there will be no desire until Russian soldiers leave Ukrainian land.
In fresh months, the Russians have confirmed their infirmity respective times and are no longer able to carry out not only offensive operations, but even defend the occupied area. In the last 3 months, Russian troops have had to retreat from an area of over 17,000 km.2. Ukrainians proceed to keep a immense numerical advantage and the support provided by the West has led to a lasting method and technological advantage over the Russian Federation's armed forces. The exempted Ukrainian brigades, which have been active so far on the Kherson Front, can, according to various estimates, number from 40 to 70 1000 soldiers. It is no secret that the Ukrainians immediately after securing Chersonia began shifting these units to another episodes. They can hit the Zaporosian front to start action towards the cities of Melitopol, Berdiansk or Mariupol. The approach under any of them, and even more so their occupation, would lead to an intersection of the Russian supply line connecting the Russian Federation's territory with Crimea. Taking into account the serious harm to the Crimean Bridge as a consequence of a fresh explosion, a road connection moving through the occupied confederate area Ukraine is the only 1 left to the Russians to supply the peninsula effectively. Crossing this road will lead to incomplete isolation of Crimea and can open the gate to conduct the operation to be occupied by Ukrainian troops. Conscious of this, the Russians began preparing the fortification lines straight north of Crimea.
Therefore, it is hard to anticipate Kiev to be curious in peace talks. The Russians anticipate that the introduced truce would lead to the suspension of fights on the current front lines and the maintenance of Russian control over occupied areas. For apparent reasons, Ukraine cannot agree. The gene admitted it openly. Valery Deserved states that “Ukraine will not accept any negotiations, agreements or compromises. We're not stopping under any circumstances. There is only 1 condition for negotiation – Russia must leave all occupied territories."
Ukrainian partners from the US and Europe realize that Moscow cannot be trusted. Russia will surely usage the duration of the ceasefire to prepare for the next strike, while destabilising the situation in Ukraine all the time and continuing hybrid action. During 9 months of war, the attitude in the West changed dramatically. From considering erstwhile the Ukrainian capital will fall, to reasoning not about whether Russia will lose this war, or alternatively how severe it will be a disaster. The support from the West for Ukraine did not weaken. fresh packages of financial and arms assistance are regularly emerging for Kiev, and further successes on the front will only confirm these countries in this position. It is besides crucial that the autumn and weather forecasts so far indicate a alternatively light winter, which leads to a deficiency of effective influence from Russian gas blackmail. There are further packages of sanctions behind the belt, including oil imports from Russia.
All of this leads to the conclusion that, while Russia truly wants to suspend the fighting, as evidenced by signals sent through 3rd countries and open statements by the highest rank of Russian politicians, so Ukraine will search the liberation of the occupied area. Only by forcing the Russians to retreat full will it be an introduction to peace talks. This was acknowledged by president Zelenski’s beginning of the G20 summit: “There will be no Minsk-3 that Russia violates immediately after signing. We will not let the Russian Federation to wait and rebuild its forces.” He received clear support from the U.S. President, who stated that there was no peace talks without Kiev. Therefore, we will gotta wait at least until the Ukrainians have recovered Melitopol, and this may happen by the end of February 2023.
photo: pixabay
