"There is no free Poland without free Ukraine" is simply a quote attributed to Józef Piłsudski (without evidence), and is surely a kind of main motto of the political proposals by Jerzy Giedroycia (Paris Culture). Even if both of them said specified a sentence, no of them could foretell the current situation in 2022 – erstwhile the future of free Ukraine (and so possibly besides free Poland) is decided.
The situation that all media in the main news strips are talking about all day – it's actually... "of nothing." Russia-Ukraine relations have remained highly tense since the annexation of Crimea and all the time economical and abroad policy Ukraine was aimed at removing all close ties with Russia (including energy) for the elimination of any dependence, but the end of the erstwhile year was not truly specific. abruptly – a step by step came the full puzzle – an expanding presence of Russian military forces at the borders, a plan of large military maneuvers of Russia and Belarus (so another division around Ukrainian borders from the north), combined with a set of amazing steps on energy markets. With the advent of winter (and in parallel with the transfer of troops), gas prices in the European place markets (even 10 times) increased rapidly. Indeed, the price of gas at the beginning and in the mediate of 2021 was low (even for many years low) and the following months brought a abrupt increase in request along with increased consumption of post-covidal European economies. The pulse of uneven demand-supply has further strengthened the exceptionally low (for winter) gas retention in Germany (manyly managed by a Russian subsidiary of Gazprom) – and the whole, utilizing the inactive under-qualified European energy markets – have raised the price of "current and gas" to skyrocketing levels (a place marketplace that besides attracted forward markets). abruptly everyone woke up in a fresh energy reality – where everything costs many times more costly (it seems to be besides costly for the energy situation itself), but with an additional price premium for the risk" of the Russian armored divisions at the borders. The situation is eluded by experts and analysts due to the fact that it seems that after Angela Merkel's departure – in the higher-ranking (largest and medium-sized countries of the world) politicians remained only unforeseeable megalomaniacs or not rational populists.
In the full fresh arrangement of geopolitics and media news there is only 1 – the Ukrainian sentence. Analysts and politicians talk about possible invasions, any embassies are just evacuating native workers from Kiev, but fewer (or almost nobody) talk about our Ukrainian partners and friends – what they think. In my opinion, the request of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Putin is completely Kuriosistic... “not to attack Ukraine during the Beijing Olympics” – as you can see, it is no longer the law, the rules, global standards, or the destiny of thousands of people who may be killed in a moment, but the calm of tv broadcasts from Beijing sports competitions. The planet begins to rage (like Irydion Krasicki, “people and gods go crazy”, and we can easy see it on the news strips and flip the channel.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, if attacked... will shoot. Regardless of the ideas of analysts, politicians and advisors, most are in line with the message of president Zieleński – "We do not want war, but we will defend ourselves." Ukraine will defend itself and shoot independently of the decisions of European politicians, global artificial treaties or any unusual agreement over their heads. Ukraine has something to shoot – not only by the force of its army (which has been greatly improved in fresh years), but besides by the determination of a society that truly appreciates independency and speaks in its native language. The ongoing exercises – from civilian defence, registration of all citizens to combat (at any point even women – but this was withdrawn shortly after the announcement), to training in schools how to proceed during bombings – show increasing determination. Any invasion will be a immense tragedy, and it may besides make on a planet scale perhaps, due to the fact that it will pull the full puzzle of subsequent conflicts from the mediate East through both Koreas until possibly even to a dispute over Taiwan. If the worst happens – it will be the worst of the consequences that we are not full able to predict. The only hope we have (says “our” due to the fact that it is something that will contact us all) is that the full tense situation is simply a kind of multilateral bluff and it will actually go distant without major consequences (maybe only higher energy prices, the request for energy changes in the markets and another imagination of a fresh planet that will no longer be as simple as before). This hope increases erstwhile I watch Russian news in the main channels – there is no atmosphere of increasing conflict and preparing society for war (and sacrifices) – so possibly all Russian politics are directed only "outside" to gain any points and concessions (and to benefit from higher natural materials prices).
As always in specified critical historical moments... it is not rather known what is Poland's position for present (and for the future). We are, of course, in favour of "free Ukraine", but with restraint and political declarations, "we pay close attention to the situation" and "we urge diplomatic measures". I hope there's a plan under these naturally beautiful circular declarations. And to slow unload the situation and plan B for the worst. It is hard to consider the worst, due to the fact that military analysts and the thought of how to aid a military, financially and economically attacked neighbour are needed, but something can be planned for this "soft solution". Even if the situation calms down – the situation (and energy) Ukraine won't change. And this is most likely worth planning far more extremist and definitely more cooperative strategies. There is simply a unique minute where Ukraine powerfully criticises the restraint and partially rusophobic German statements and seeks desperately allies for years. It may be worth considering the transition to an "energy alliance", where we can support the integration and synchronisation of the Ukrainian energy strategy with European (today the majority is connected to BRELL – Russian). It is besides the restart of the 750kV transmission line and possibly a joint Polish-Ukrainian-American investment in fresh atomic blocks at the Chmielnicki power plant. possibly the maximum investments in the Ukrainian gas extraction sector and joint collectors, the usage of Ukrainian warehouses (why build their own if they have 1 of the largest in Europe) and may extend the Polish energy exchange to include the Ukrainian stock exchange. Of course, the maximum hazard active in removing long - word prejudices, breaking our own blockages of thinking, and spending quite a few money on investment in addition to the tremendous amount of common patience. But possibly now is the time – remembering the words that “there is no free Poland without free Ukraine” – regardless of who said it...
