Spring brought Ukraine a temporary stabilization on the front, but the coming summertime can radically change the situation. Ukrainian soldiers and analysts inform that Russian forces are preparing a fresh offensive, and weather can take distant their top asset – the advantage in utilizing drones.
Spring stabilisation is just a momentary breath.
Even though the Russian spring attacks brought them tiny territorial gains with immense losses, Ukrainians do not believe that peace will last long.
– We do not anticipate the current stabilisation to last long – admits officer fighting in the Pokrowska area. – We crashed the enemy's attack, but we know he's regrouping and preparing for the next offensive phase.
The drones are losing efficiency. The leaves will cover the battlefield
According to Wall Street Journaldrones are presently liable for about 85% of Russian losses in the area of combat. However, with the coming summer, their effectiveness will drop drastically.
"The leaves return to the trees and within a period they block the drones' view of Russian positions. In the north-east of Ukraine, where the tree lines are higher than in the fields in the south, this will supply a much greater cover for the invading Russians than they had in fresh months.” – reads the analysis.
In addition, it ends ‘muddy season’which made it hard for dense vehicles to manoeuvre. The Russians are already expanding the number of mechanized attacks, after months of fighting led mainly by infantry.
Ammunition problems can weaken Ukraine's defence
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi notes that although the Russians are suffering massive losses, Ukraine may shortly face the problem of ammunition shortages.
– Currently Ukraine has adequate ammunition for artillery and another weapons, but its supplies are decreasing due to Russia's continuous attacks. At the same time, artillery from the United States is likely to run out over the next fewer months and Republicans are improbable to approve a fresh aid package for Kiev. Although Europe will effort to fill this gap, it does not produce adequate ammunition to do so completely – warns the expert.
If military aid does not arrive in time, the Ukrainians will be forced to reduce their firepower, making it hard to defend against the current shortages of soldiers.
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