The authoritarian countries of Murinus and Botnia, as well as members of the unfavorable West Occacus block, have long pursued hostile action against NATO. 1 day, they attack from the east of the alliance territory. They throw on foot, armored vehicles, artillery and aviation. In response, NATO members apply Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on the common defence and establish a fierce fight against the aggressor.
Of course, Murinus and Botnia are fictional countries, and Octacus is simply a non-existent block. That's what they called it. a hypothetical enemy in wide-scale NATO maneuvering scenarios In fresh years. The Alliance practiced responding to Russia’s attack — either alone or with Belarus — to its east border.
After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The West stopped utilizing fictional names of possible attackers. In January 2024 German "Bild" reported to have obtained a secret Bundeswehr document describing the possible script of the war between Russia and NATO, which could have occurred in the summertime of 2025.
It looks as follows: First, the Kremlin gathers troops close the borders of Poland and Lithuania under the pretext of exercises.
He then provokes a border conflict in the Suwałki gulf region. This area at the border between Lithuania and Poland, linking the Baltic countries to the remainder of the EU, is considered to be NATO's most delicate point. In consequence to Moscow's actions, the alliance decides to decision additional armed forces into the conflict area.
Commenting on an article published by ‘Bild’, NATO stressed that this paper is not a forecast, but a training script that is always based on fictional events. At the same time, it explained that under the present circumstances "it is more desirable to usage the names of existing countries and geographical regions" than to invent fictional entities.
Scaring
The publication “Bilda” attracted peculiar attention due to the fact that A small earlier Boris Pistorius, Minister of Defence of Germany, spoke not of a textbook scenario, but of a circumstantial forecast. He warned that Russia's attack on NATO countries can be expected in the next 5 to 8 years.
Pistorius' message triggered a wave of akin predictions. Bloomberg's sources in Western intelligence agencies reported that the Kremlin would attack the alliance in the next 3 to 5 years. The head of Estonian abroad Intelligence Kaupo Rosin warned in turn that Russia will start a full-scale conflict with NATO "in about a decade or so". Swedish authorities besides spoke about the request to prepare for war.
At the beginning of 2025, this subject is inactive valid. “Many of our national intelligence services are reporting to us that Russia can test our readiness to defend in 3 to 5 years. They say I'm a hawk to Russia. However, I think I mention to it simply realistically," said EU diplomacy president Kaja Kallas on 22 January at the yearly conference of the European Defence Agency (EDA) in Brussels.
Finnish political scientist and student of the global Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen in an interview with the NGJ portal suggested that The Kremlin could decide to be aggressive if it saw the “opportunity window” that is conducive to it.. According to the specialist, it will appear erstwhile 2 conditions are met.
— First of all, Moscow must state that the United States will not fulfil its commitment to defend Europe or that it is incapable to warrant its defence at a given time due to its commitment to another war, for example with China," Lavikainen said.
Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP / AFPDonald Trump at the White home Oval Office in Washington, D.C., February 10, 2025.
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), think tank for defence and security, besides talk about this scenario. They presume that 2026-2028 Beijing may effort to introduce a blockade or invade Taiwan or another disputed territories. The United States will then be forced to fulfil its obligations to allies in this theatre of war and will consequently not be able to rapidly transfer large meals to Europe.
As far as Russia's actions are concerned, this may be limited, as far as the scale is concerned, by the attack on the east borders of NATO, which "would test the determination of the alliance and exposure the deficiency of full solidarity between its members," said Jamie Shea, erstwhile NATO secretary-general on fresh safety challenges. In an interview with NGJ, he warned that in specified a script the alliance would be seen as a "empty shell", which would "allow Putin to intimidate the countries of continental Europe, gain influence there and draw them into his political and economical orbit".
The second condition, which could open up to the Kremlin the "opportunity window", which Jyri Lavikainen spoke of, is linked to the dynamics of the improvement of the defence capabilities of the Russian Federation and European states.
— Russia is able to rapidly increase its military potential. If Europe does not act in the same way, the balance of power in the short word can decision to the benefit of the Kremlin to specified an degree that it considers it a unique chance to attack,” Lavikainen said.
Faster expansion of the Russian army
The fact that "the pace of rebuilding the Russian army was faster than expected by Western analysts," besides noted the Quincy Institute for liable Statecraft, an American think tank specialising in US abroad policy. However, he added that "the readiness of the Russian armed forces will most likely not be the main origin determining Moscow's decision to invade".
According to Jamie Shea, decisive factors could be Donald Trump's actions and the consequence of the war in Ukraine. If the president of the United States persuades allies to increase their defence spending and does not reduce the presence of US troops in Europe, NATO will become an even more serious deterrent force for Russia.
In the case of a "real peace agreement" on the conflict in Ukraine, many European countries "could participate in the deployment of peace forces in the buffer region between Ukraine and Russia", which would besides halt Kremlin's ambition," said Jamie Shea.
Thierry Monasse / Contributor / Getty ImagesKaja Kallas talking to the media before the informal gathering of EU leaders in Brussels, 3 February 2025.
The view that the Kremlin can be stopped against aggression by force alone means that Europe must increase its defence capacity to a level comparable to Russian. European politicians clearly realize that. At the conference in Brussels, Kaja Kallas said that Europe must "invest in its military potential", that is, increase its defence spending, knowing that it is not only about preventing war but besides about preparing for it.
EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius reiterated this call, calling on all European countries to importantly increase their defence capacity. It justified the fact that "In 5 years, Russia may be ready to face NATO and the EU armed".
More troops
In view of the possible to escalate the conflict, any NATO countries, especially those located geographically close to Russia, have begun to intensify their defence capabilities, notably by expanding the number of armed forces.
The Polish authorities had already planned to increase the number of soldiers in 2024. The Minister of Defence stressed that they would proceed to arrive due to the fact that there would be "trained people who swore an oath and went to reserve".
Sweden, a fresh associate of the alliance, plans to increase the number of soldiers From the current 88 000 to 115 000 by 2030, another “novice” in NATO — Finland — relies on reserveists. About 23,000 people service in her army during peacetime. president Alexander Stubb, however, said that in the event of an armed conflict, the country could defend 280,000 people.
The Estonian army can grow even more awesome in percentage. presently it has about 4.5 1000 professional soldiers, but at any time 90 1000 reservists can be called into service.
AA/ABACA/ PAPSwedish soldiers during military exercises Baltops 24 on Uto Island, 11 June 2024.
Countries farther distant from Russia besides want to increase the number of soldiers. In December 2024, German defence minister Boris Pistorius announced that the German armed forces would now number 230 000 military troops alternatively of 180 000. Spain has set itself the goal of expanding the armed forces by 20,000 soldiers in a decade to scope the statutory ceiling of 140 000.
The changes are not only quantitative but besides structural. For example, from 1 January 2025. In Croatia, conscription was reinstated. The service lasts 2 months. In Latvia, the mandatory 11-month service in the army was reinstated in 2023. Boris Pistorius called the 2011 liquidation mistake of the compulsory military service in Germany. In 2024, however, he did not insist on restoring it.
Such actions of European countries are affected not only by forecasts of intelligence services, but besides by circumstantial processes taking place in parallel with the Russian Army. In September 2024 Putin signed a decree to increase the number of Russian armed forces by 180 000 soldiers — to 1.5 million. This is simply a value comparable to the number of military personnel in the United States alone of 1.3 million. NATO last summertime had a full of 3.37 million military.
Parallel to the process of expanding the army's numbers, any countries of the alliance conduct campaigns informing the population about the principles of behaviour during the war. In late 2024, for example, the Swedish people began to receive an updated brochure entitled “In the event of a crisis or war”.
"The level of military threat is increasing. We request to be prepared for the worst-case script — an armed attack on Sweden" — you can read at the beginning of the publication. Its authors They urge that we stock up on everything needed to last at home: drinking water, candles, canned, toilet paper, etc. They pay peculiar attention to medicines, including iodine tablets, which would be useful in case of atomic impact and fast increases in radiation levels. Finland, Norway and Denmark have taken akin measures to inform the public of possible risks.
‘Hedgehog’ at the border
In addition to expanding the army's size and raising public awareness, governments besides plan to take action to strengthen the border. A year ago, Baltic defence ministers agreed that they would jointly build a fortification strategy at borders with Russia and Belarus. As then explained by Hanno Pevkur, Estonian defence minister, the war in Ukraine “showed that in addition to equipment, ammunition and troops to defend Estonia, defensive structures are besides necessary”.
According to these agreements in August in Lithuania, close the town of Podbrod, the first alleged enemy countermobility park appeared. It's over there, near the border with Belarus, there are now various dams, specified as “Dragon teeth” and “ hedgehogs”, and checkpoints. By May 2025, similarly, structures should appear at another possibly dangerous points.
Estonia is expected to begin construction of 600 concrete bunkers this year, each of which will be able to accommodate up to 10 soldiers with equipment if necessary. In addition, the plans are to set up ‘Dragon teeth’, fences, long barbed wire barriers and set anti-tank mines. A chain of buoys with cutting blades may appear on the water border, akin to the 1 that in the summertime of 2023 the Texas authorities stretched on the Rio Grande River on the Mexican border.
In Latvia, in October 2024, it was announced that the dams were completed at a dimension of 222 km from planned 283 km. All structures will be ready by October 2025. Latvia besides intensively builds reinforced positions for soldiers, anti-tank ditches, minefields and another barriers and ammunition depots.
In 2024 Poland adopted its own national deterrence and defence programme “Tarcza East”, providing for the construction of akin fortifications, obstacles and reflection systems. The full budget of the programme, which will last until 2028, is estimated at PLN 10 billion (about $ 2.5 billion). At the same time, Poland agrees with the Baltic countries that backing for securing NATO's east borders should come not only from national budgets but besides from the European budget.
“The war of Russia against Ukraine has shown that creating physical obstacles in open ground, without the natural formation facilitating defence, is of paramount importance even in technologically advanced warfare,” stressed defence ministers in the September joint message of the Baltic Four.
Diplomats from EU countries, with whom the Reuter Agency talked, estimated the cost of building a long line of 700 km to about €2.5 billion (10 billion PLN). At the end of the year, however, the European Commission only allocated EUR 170 million (PLN 687 million) to strengthen the defence of the European borders with Russia and Belarus, and not for 4 but six countries (including Finland and Norway). This has clearly shown that Brussels has a central function to play in defending the east European countries.
New Old Thinking
NATO's attitude towards the possible attack on the east flank has besides undergone gradual change in fresh years. The experience of Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced the alliance to yet change its approach to defending borders.
— After the accession of the countries of Central and east Europe to the alliance in the 1990s and 2000s NATO's presence there was very limited. The point was not to provoke Moscow,” said Jamie Shea in an interview with NGJ.
He recalled that in 1997, the Pact committed itself to the alleged "three non": the non-location of armed forces, military infrastructure and atomic weapons in Central and east Europe under average peace conditions. Moscow was seen as a partner in Brussels at the time.
The attitude began to change after The outbreak of the war in Georgia in 2008 According to Admiral Rob Bauer, president of the NATO Military Committee, It was then that the associate states of the alliance began preparing to face Russia. They decided to return to the rule of collective defence against the global opponent that prevailed during the Cold War.
After the annexation of Crimea in 2014 NATO "has been under strong force from east European countries insisting on the deployment of troops and the retention of weapons and ammunition in their territory." The erstwhile findings meant that in the event of aggression, Russian forces would invade the west without encountering crucial opposition at the east borders of NATO, as recalled by Jamie Shea.
As a result, in 2017, NATO deployed 4 multi-national conflict groups of battalion size within the alleged enhanced EFP (Enhanced Forward Presence) presence in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.
VALDA KALNINA / PAPKing of Spain and president of Latvia during a visit to the Adazi military base to meet the Spanish contingent under the enhanced NATO Combat Group in Latvia on 25 June 2024.
This should be a deterrent, due to the fact that now any attack would inevitably lead to a clash with these forces and so with all NATO. After a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 4 more specified militant groups were formed: Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
According to Jyri Lavikainen, “as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO members realized that However, if there is simply a Russian invasion, it will be so violent that an alliance, planning to defend its east flank, should trust on forward defense, not on meals.’ This means constantly strengthening military presence close the border with Russia and Belarus.
In 2021, 4600 soldiers in 4 defensive groups were mentioned. After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, this number began to emergence and in November 2022 it exceeded 10,000. NATO countries have begun their expansion process from battalion to brigade level, a combat unit of respective 1000 people. This is the way Germany went. Their goal is to make a permanent German military base in Lithuania for 5,000 soldiers by 2027.
Stop the enemy and wait for help
Analysts, however, say that these measures are not adequate to halt and reject a possible opponent. They will only proceed to slow down the invasion while awaiting NATO's main forces.
As the Atlantic Council noted, "without tanks, aircraft and having only highly limited artillery and air defense, the Baltic States would likely collapse in the event of an invasion within a week". Estonian Colonel Mati Tickerpuu, commander of 1 of the 2 military brigades of the country, admitted that the republic could "perpetuate the invasion from Russia for respective weeks", waiting for "the arrival of Allied meals".
In the event of a real aggression by the Kremlin against Europe, a strategy agreed at the NATO summit in Madrid in 2022 will be launched. Previously, the alliance's fast consequence forces had about 40,000 soldiers. However, the gathering decided that they should be much bigger. Currently, it is estimated that within the first 10 days of taking the decision for combat action 100,000 soldiers may be targeted. That's twice as much and twice as the NATO plans of 2022.
Alexander KAZAKOV / Pool / AFP / AFPVladimir Putin in the Alexandrov Garden in Moscow, 22 June 2024.
The second phase assumes that 200,000 soldiers from NATO countries will be thrown into the ranks in 10-30 days. Then, if necessary, they can be supplemented by further 500 1000 military in 30-180 days. During this time, they should join forces from outside the ocean. As reported in The Telegraph in 2024, citing its sources, NATO has already developed routes for the fast spread of US troops and military equipment to the European continent in the event of a land war with Russia on a large scale.
The article lists 5 routes to the conflict zone: from ports in the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Norway. In addition to the 3 listed groups of troops, the Allied Reaction Force (ARF) formed in 2024 to respond immediately to emergency situations was included in the separate category.
Jamie Shea believes that the key challenge for the North Atlantic Alliance is now to find “a balance between effective defence at the front and highly mobile reserve forces that can rapidly be deployed anywhere in NATO.” This is why "large air, land and sea exercises are so important, investigating NATO's readiness to respond to crises and the ability to win major battles". And there are more and more of these exercises,” added NGJ.
For example, in 2024, during the Steadfast Defender 2024 maneuvers, NATO troops practiced a number of different scenarios of this kind, including the transfer of soldiers and equipment from North America to Europe, and then repelling — along with European troops — attacks of a hypothetical enemy. These were the top maneuvers since the end of the Cold War. More than 90 000 soldiers from 32 NATO associate States participated.
Financing
At the end of 2023, Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the NATO Military Committee, noted in 1 of his speeches that the military plans of the alliance focused on countering Russia "are already 4,500 pages tall", and that "now it is essential to address their feasibility in reality". And that depends on how much each ally is willing to spend on an army.
The NATO chiefs stress that it is crucial in this respect to guarantee adequate defence efforts to argue Moscow. Secretary-General of the Alliance Mark Rutte repeatedly called on all associate Statesto increase their army budgets. In 2024, 23 of the 32 NATO associate States reached their mark of spending on defence — 2% of national GDP. It is simply a evidence indicator in the past of the alliance, but many believe it is far from necessary.
Gints Ivuskans / AFPSwedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson welcoming Swedish soldiers deployed in the NATO Multinational Brigade during a visit to the military base in Latvia, 7 February 2025.
On 17 January Lithuania announced its intention to increase defence spending to 5-6 percent of GDP from 2026. The president of the country argued that "Russian military aggression is inactive possible". Such a decision must be pleasing to the main lobbyist of akin ventures — Donald Trump, who demands NATO countries to rise spending on the army to 5 percent. The United States alone spent 3.4% of GDP on defence last year, or $966.7 billion (PLN 3.9 trillion). Meanwhile, all another NATO countries spent a full of $507 billion (about PLN 2 trillion).
However, for many members of the alliance the 5% of GDP mark is now completely unrealistic. For example, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said this explicitly. According to the sources of the Financial Times, the June NATO Summit will address a compromise solution – it will propose that all the countries of the alliance allocate 3% of GDP to the defence.
Cold War 2.0
Moscow has come to the conclusion that NATO is preparing to face it in an armed way, thus "increasing tension and destabilising the world". Among another things, Russian defence minister Andrei Bielousov and Deputy Minister of abroad Affairs of Russia Aleksandr Gruszko said.
Russian officials and military officials always stress that all work rests and will remainder on the North Atlantic Alliance. Moscow rejects the claim that "Russia wants to attack NATO". Vladimir Putin called specified suppositions “prudence” and “nonsensm” and those who give them— “fools as a table leg”.
However, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine seemingly caused both sides to pass from a verbal confrontation to a force that after the Cold War and the fall of the USSR seemed a distant past. In the last 3 years Russia has importantly increased its military possible and will surely proceed to do so. In response, NATO countries have raised the level of preparedness for possible military threats.
Strengthening borders, expanding defence spending, expanding the number of national armies, expanding armaments and improving NATO cooperation as a consequence of regular exercises makes the price of possible aggression importantly increased for Moscow. Also, a persistent subject in Western countries can be considered a deterrent intellectual origin possible attacks from Russia And appeals to prepare for it.
However, the main safeguard against Russia's direct military clash with NATO countries, which are present closer to a direct conflict than always before, remains, as in the Cold War, atomic weapons. It is owned by the Russian Federation, the United States, the United Kingdom and France.
NATO's strategical concept adopted at the summit in 2022 states that the primary nonsubjective of the atomic alliance's possible is "to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression". W Russian atomic doctrine updated in November 2024. are akin in substance: atomic weapons are "a means of deterrence, the usage of which is simply a final and forced action". It was besides stressed that Russia "is making all essential efforts to reduce the atomic threat". Putin himself repeatedly said that "there will be no winners in the atomic war."
The threat of atomic war for decades prevented Moscow and the West from becoming uncontrollable in the escalation of conflict. This was reported, for example, in a secret CIA study of 1978 declassified in 2012. This paper contained war scenarios between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, a military and political alliance of socialist countries led by Moscow.
Noting that "a decisive theatre of military operations in the large-scale conflict between NATO and the Warsaw Pact would be Central Europe", CIA analysts stressed that "from the russian point of view, the hazard of engaging in war with NATO may be highly high" due to the "possibility of escalation of specified a war into atomic war with unpredictable consequences". The authors of the study pointed to the anticipation of "escalation for massive atomic strikes against the russian Union", which would be "a immense threat to the existence of the USSR itself".
After conversion of the abbreviation ‘ZSRR’ to ‘Russia’, this thesis is inactive valid.
