Vladimir Putin abruptly found himself in the same situation as Volodymyr Zelenski. How can he say non Donald Trump, without exposing himself to the wrath of the highly unpredictable and impetuous president of the United States?
Ukraine's readiness to agree an immediate 30-day ceasefire, after discussions in Saudi Arabia, puts force on Putin to do the same.
Trump prides himself on his ability to make contracts, and erstwhile he saw that Zelenski was an obstacle to an agreement, He blew up and cut off military aid for Kiev. He got mad that Ukrainians didn't want peace. Now, after the talks in Saudi Arabia, it's the Russians' turn. Secretary of State in the Trump administration, Marco Rubio, made it clearthat “the ball is on the side ” and noted that unless Moscow signs the ceasefire, “Unfortunately, we will learn what is the obstacle to peace”.
After resumed American military aid to Kiev On Tuesday Trump told Kremlin what would happen if he ignored the ceasefire, informing that “many people” would die.
The first signals from Russia are not very encouraging. Only a fewer hours after the proposal for a ceasefire, Russian forces carried out Air attack on Zelenski's hometown, Kwiręt, killing a 47-year-old woman, as the politician of Djepropetrovsk Oblast said. The Russians besides hit Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa. 4 people were killed erstwhile a rocket hit a grain loading ship in Odessa.
Trump said he was looking for a conversation with Putin, which in fresh weeks He praised as a reliable partner who wants peaceBut the Kremlin is restrained. Spokesperson Dmitri Pieskov said that specified a conversation could be held in a short time, “if needed”.
On Wednesday morning, Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zacharova seemed to ease the enthusiasm around the thought of a temporary truce, saying Moscow would make its own decisions regarding the war and will not follow the example of Washington and Kiev in Saudi Arabia. "The training of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place abroad due to any agreements or attempts by any parties," quotes TASS.
Russian abroad Minister Sergei Lavrow besides seemed to anticipate any larger reset between Washington and the Kremlin. He said The West seems to show “first flashes of consciousness”That he had to work with Russia, but he sounded skeptical about the chances of an immediate agreement. “It is not possible to trust on the goodwill of current opponents who declared the goal of Russia’s strategical failure,” he said.
The jury identifies Putin's main problem: A ceasefire can actually look like a strategical failure., making it hard for Moscow to sign an agreement (even despite Russia's past of ignoring the suspension of arms and diplomatic agreements).
In short, The Russians are inactive failing to meet their main strategical objectivesThat cost them 170,000 soldiers. Putin wanted a short war to overthrow Zelenski, occupy Kiev, thwart Ukraine's drive to the European Union and NATO and undermine its democratic character.
Russian officials do not hide that their goal remains to weaken the Ukrainian state and make maximum demands towards Kiev. They want to occupy even more territory, restrict Ukrainian military capabilities and prevent abroad peacekeeping forces from serving there. Just ending fights is not the eventual mark of an army of aggressors.
On Wednesday, Konstantin Kosaczov, president of the Committee on global Affairs of the advanced Chamber of the Russian Parliament, besides spoke. He stressed that Russia did not end the fight and insisted that any ceasefire agreement be only on Moscow terms. "True agreements are inactive being made there on the front. What they should besides realize in Washington, D.C.," he wrote.
Putin does not want a “short truce”
Moscow's first reaction should not be a surprise. Putin pointed out earlier this year that any temporary ceasefire is unacceptable, arguing that it would benefit only the severely experienced Kiev and its western allies.
— The goal should not be a brief truce, not any kind of regrouping of forces and re-arming to further the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all men, all the nations surviving in the region," Putin said in January.
In the last fewer weeks, Russian officials have enjoyed A performance in which Zelenski attacked TrumpAnd the American leader seemingly allied with Moscow. In mid-February, the state media could not boast of returning to the summits of global policy erstwhile US and Russian diplomats had talks in Saudi Arabiawhich lasted over 4 hours.
This gathering was the first direct advanced level contact between the US and Russian delegations Since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine 3 years ago.. The state media and Cremovian officials considered this a large triumph for the Russian president.
Russian abroad Ministry/ UPI photograph via Newscom / PAPUS and Russia delegates at a gathering in Riyadh, 18 February 2025.
W Moscow was besides joyful erstwhile Trump halted military aid to Ukraine and cut off the exchange of intelligence after the fight at the Oval Office. It was evident that Washington has sidelined Europeans in discussions on the future of Ukraine and that Zelenski was criticized by Trump and Named ‘dictator without election’. “ The cheeky pig yet got a good cheek, ” commented Joyful Zacharov.
Ukrainians and their European allies, who intercede for Kiev, made an effort to reverse the situation. Zelenski had to bite his teeth, ease his opposition and halt insisting on safety guarantees for Ukraine Even before any discussion about the ceasefire. This week he besides left direct talks in Saudi Arabia to his influential chief of staff, Andriy Jermak, alternatively of conducting them personally.
Trump needs to realize that Putin is the problem.
Since November erstwhile Trump won the election, Ukrainians, following the advice of American sympathizers, They decided on a adaptation strategyto avoid antagonizing the capricious Trump. The thought was that they should leave Putin the chance to exceed and disappoint Trump, despite the fear that Putin might be able to usage Trump's desire to scope an agreement at their expense.
— Trump must conclude that Putin is not inclined to make any concessions, not to Ukraine, but to him," said POLITICO in January, an American lobbyist working for Ukrainians asking him to stay anonymous so that he could talk freely. “This must be a recurring process, and Ukraine must be a constructive organization at all times. Trump and his advisors gotta get to know themselves on the Russians, and then they'll find out.
However, this strategy fell erstwhile the Oval Office of Zelensk, provoked by Vice president J. D. Vance, lost their nerve. Now the strategy is back on track and Moscow will gotta decide rapidly how to play Trump.
It seems improbable that the Russian generals want to let go now. They managed to make slow but consistent advancement in the east in the Donetsk Oblast and are about a fewer kilometers from the break to the neighbouring Djepropetrovsk Oblast.
EPA/JIM LO SCALZO / POOL / PAPgathering of Volodymyr Zelenski, Donald Trump and J. D. Vance at the Oval Office. Washington, 28 February 2025.
This weekend, they managed to make a crucial breakthrough in the Kursk Oblast, approaching the lap of about 10,000 elite Ukrainian soldiers who defend the acquired territory in Russia. Russian commanders besides plan increasing the number of attacks with ballistic missiles and drones, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, which late predicted that Moscow is presently capable of carrying out simultaneous attacks involving 500 drones.
So it is not easy for Putin to tell his generals that the time has come for the ceasefire. However, if he simply ignores Washington and continues the war, he will besides gotta worry about Trump's reaction.
The Russian paper "Kommeersant" suggested Wednesday that the Kremlin's consequence would only become clearer After visiting Moscow, Steve WitkoffSpecial envoy Trump. It's not clear erstwhile this might happen. Russian media reports that Moscow is expecting him soon, before a possible telephone call between Trump and Putin on Friday. However, Pieskov, the Kremlin spokesman, rejected reports of Witkoff's imminent arrival.
Judging by how Putin dealt with erstwhile diplomatic rounds with the Americans in fresh years — on Syria and Ukraine — it is likely to decide to proceed the discussion, raising different reservations and offering a number of misleading counter-proposals. Although Putin's speech may be closer to crocodile tears than confrontation, the Russian president must exercise caution. Trump just wants to make a deal, and he doesn't like being stopped.
