We have presidential elections behind us and parliamentary elections ahead of us. Will they be held on time, or in the fall of 2027? Or are we waiting for an early election? possibly even late this year?
Everything is the consequence of what happened on 1 June – Karol Nawrocki's triumph over Rafał Trzaskowski. alternatively of closing the strategy and full of power for the Donald Tusk camp and the centre-left majority we now have – if the elections take place within the time limit – a 2 and a half year balance between the president from the right and the centre-left majority.
The form of “run forward” was an almost immediate announcement by Prime Minister Donald Tusk about voting on a vote of assurance for his cabinet.
Why am I talking about moving forward? due to the fact that not only opposition politicians, but besides liberal-left media journalists who have so far supported Donald Tusk, point to his work for the result of the presidential election. Many commentators believe that this was not a vote “for Trzaskowski” but “against Trzaskowski” due to the unpopularity of the Tusk government.
I have no uncertainty that the present majority – despite interior tensions – will not fall apart yet. The situation of the Left and 3rd Way after the presidential election is difficult.
Magdalena Biejat achieved a weaker score than Adrian Zandberg. In turn, Szymon Hołownia, trying to improve the 2020 result, ended his rivalry with the 4.99% result, which caused immense problems for the 3rd Way. Both formations have no choice but to support Donald Tusk's government.
The question of what happens in a fewer months, however, remains open. The current majority and Donald Tusk themselves have no thought how to get out of the crisis in which they found themselves after losing the presidential election. It is even said that the plan to "improve" the situation is... to establish a press spokesperson. This shows a deficiency of concept and confirms the thesis of many observers: the coalition concluded in 2023 was a cluster of environments from Zandberg to Sawicki. There was only 1 link between them – the removal of the Law and Justice and access to state institutions.
If we look at the "making" of this crew – of course in quotes – there are very fewer of them. Especially in the context of the unfulfilled promises of the 2023 campaign.
Moreover, the media supporting Tusk compromised during the run and now they will no longer cover it.
The situation is stale. Tusk would like to submit himself to the Left and the 3rd Way, but these formations in the face of the crisis begin to talk about the request to keep subjectivity. A loud example is the message by Michał Kamiński, Deputy Marshal of the Senate, who stated explicitly that the coalition would not make it to the elections with this Prime Minister and would not extend the legitimacy for another 4 years.
It is no secret that discontent besides grows in the Civic Coalition. Isn't it time to start a discussion about the change of Prime Minister? For now, this is not a real scenario, but if the situation gets worse, it is possible to replace this autumn.
The launch blocks already have a possible candidate for Prime Minister – Radosław Sikorski. I will remind – he lost the 2010 presidential election to Komorowski and the last to Trzaskowski. Now he hopes for a rematch, supported by Roman Giertych and Michał Kamiński.
If Prime Minister Tusk and his coalition proceed to fall, more and more people will begin to request change. The current situation on the centreleft is unstable, although voting on the vote of assurance will give Tusk a fewer more months of "prolongation".
We will most likely return to this subject in 3 or 4 months, erstwhile the situation may ripen to change the Prime Minister. However, we besides have the another side of the political scene – Law and Justice – which besides did not full realize the result of the presidential election.
President Karol Nawrocki won 55 percent of the votes of the PiS voters, but 45 percent were votes, among others, from the sympathizers Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun. We have a natural competition on the right side of the phase – between PiS, Confederate and Crown Braun.
The right is increasing stronger – this showed the presidential election – but the cards have not yet been handed out. So we will have a politically hot summertime and a hot fall – both in Tuska and Kaczyński camp. It's gonna happen.
