You can knock your head against the wall to shed blood, but that won't make us decision the dam. The case is akin with Warsaw – as long as the PiS, in the eyes of the Warsaw organization completely compromised, is the largest right-wing formation, as long as the Civic Platform will regulation in the capital. Thus, alternatively of throwing his head at the wall, the right hand should reduce losses. If you can't win the election, let's think about what's possible. Especially since it is rather likely that in 2025 we will have another election in the capital.
2018 – The United Right is in a full apogee of its power. In the PiS polls, it is somewhat more than 40% of support, and in a fewer months the Kaczyński Formation will win a large consequence in elections to the European Parliament, followed by a second word in parliamentary elections. On the demoliberal side there is simply a temper of wake and depression, and the Citizen Platform ruled by Grzegorz Schetyna has no chance of returning to power. The Law and Justice have no 1 to lose to, lamenting liberal journalists. The PiS will regulation not two, but 3 or 4 terms – in turn, the writers boast. Kaczyński himself has long been pulled out of the closet, he has ceased to be synonymous with the top evil and scare Poles. On the contrary, he became the locomotive of subsequent electoral campaigns. The old maneuver is that the election is coming, so we hide the president, he's no longer up to date. The president even tried to “experiment” staffly and in the framework of this experimentation gave the fight for the capital to a politician from the Zbigniew Ziobra party.
Patryk Jaka, who was then a “wonderful kid of the right”, was celebrated as Deputy Minister of Justice and president of the Warsaw Reprivatisation Commission. “The man who defeated Hanka” – it was said at the time. He himself showed an extraordinary determination to fight Rafał Trzaskowski for the voices of the Warsawists – an highly intense campaign, quite a few ideas, courageous going to the inhabitants of the capital, conventions, songs, picnics, the thought of creating another territory in the city, etc. The run was symbolized by the last days erstwhile Jaki, just before the election silence, threw a marathon and visited another districts for 36 hours without even an hr of sleep.
What? And nothing. Trzaskowski won in the first circular of elections, and the right-wing candidate did not scope even 30% of the support. In the following years, it was only worse. While Jaky in 2018 received 28.5% of support in Warsaw, Duda in 2020 almost 27 percent, in 2023 PiS had only 22.1 percent and now Tobias Bocheński 23 percent. However, the results of another right-wing candidates are already a disgrace. Both Przemysław Wipler and Janusz Korwin-Mikke could not have taken off and nobody would have felt the difference.
Head to wall
The consequence of Patrick, who shows us that the candidate of the PiS camp can stand on his head, grow wings and fly under the ceiling, and he won't get this town. With specified a diagnosis there is frequently an argument – "but Lech Kaczyński won". Yeah, he won. In 2002. It has been over 20 years since that success, we have a different political scene and a different society. Everything's different.
Today, the capital is simply a radically anti-script city, and this emotion has only been strengthened within 8 years of the regulation of the United Right. In Warsaw, there is truly no local government policy, or – in order not to make matters so harsh – it is always subject to national policy. The election of the city president is seen strictly by national policy.
Tobias Bocheński could be the best candidate in the world, but he is not in his power to break the moods of the city.
Therefore, the PiS, who one more time exhibited a writer's candidate, resembles a delinquent who slams his head into this proverbial wall. Bochenski can parade with a rainbow flag, guarantee love for the European Union and teardrop down churches, but that will not change anything. Kaczyński exposes the writer's candidate, the candidate gets robbed, followed by a brainstorm (follows?) and in subsequent elections Kaczyński exposes another writer's candidate. That's not the way. In the current arrangement of forces, there is only 1 script in which Bocheński wins, and Trzaskowski gets the loot – in order to do so, Bocheński would gotta run as an KO candidate and Trzaskowski as a kaczystowski neophyte under the PiS banners. A fantasy script? Yes, the script in which PiS acquires Warsaw is suitable for a fantasy film.
What does the right wing want?
Since triumph in the capital is impossible, 1 should consider what is within the scope of the right hand, what the conservatives can accomplish and what they actually have. due to the fact that that's surely not the goal of casting Bocheński, Wipler or Korwin-Mikke in the presidential seat.
First, let us point to the main omission of the right wing.
This has especially been seen in fresh months. Bocheński's candidacy seems to be drawn from the hat with naive hope that the politician will repeat Andrzej Duda's unexpected success in 2015. He did not repeat it, and it was hard for him to blame it, since the organization threw him into the deep water with a joyful cry of "get along." The Law and Justice should be reasoning about today, not the 2024 local elections, but the 2029 elections, and possibly the overtime in Warsaw in 2025, if Rafał Trzaskowski becomes president of Poland.
Well, what is the goal of the broad right? Above all – the failure of a candidate for the civilian Coalition. The holding of the city by politicians of this organization is, by all means, detrimental to average Warsawers who are so obsessed with national politics that they will agree to any pro-EU demands, including the ban on driving cars, if specified an thought is presented as anti-script. Secondly, the continuation of the KO strategy in power guarantees that the reprivatisation scandal will never be seriously affected. Thirdly, the reflection of Warsaw at the hands of the KO would be the first step to the reflection of power from the hands of the KO throughout Poland. The capital is not essential for the Law and Justice to rule, but for the KO as much as possible. How much can the right hand sacrifice to accomplish this goal?
Warsaw Gambit
It so seems that the Law and Justice as the largest right-wing party, on whose shoulders for this reason the top work rests, should consider the option, named for the purposes of this text, the ‘gambit of Warsaw’. To put it plainly, it's about getting the PiS into the shadows and making space for any anti-platform option. The elections in Warsaw are not analogous to those nationwide, where the Law and Justice Office cannot be certain of the victory, but inactive keeps the chances of winning the presidency. That's impossible in DC.
It should be understood that the capital is not so much a liberal, progressive or platformer town as it is not adequate to realize the current situation. Warsaw is mainly an anti-script city. After 8 years of a written waltz, which all day rotted and humiliated the PO, voters of Tuska want revenge – they are mobilized and active. The fight between Trzaskowski and Bochenski was actually seen as an extension of the fight between Tusk and Kaczyński.
The only chance for PiS to win is to break out of this PO-PiS logic. In order to win, PiS must renounce its spelling. While the conflict between the 2 parties in a national field is beneficial to them, in the field of local governments this division is favoured only by Tusk.
Who's in place of PiS?
Then who would take the place of the PiS candidate? How would that look? surely 1 option is simply not to give the PiS anyone to fight for Warsaw and support (formal, informal – besides early for a circumstantial tactic) a candidate who has a chance to enter the second round. Another option includes the withdrawal of the PiS candidate in the mediate of the race and the transmission of votes.
Of course, we are talking about the year 2029 (or 2025...), so any precise predictions are presently impossible. It would should be a coalition, which is sometimes described by Rafał Ziemkiewicz, utilizing the concept of “under divisions”, that is, 1 that does not effort to bury the apparent gaps between the entities that make them, but puts them aside in order to settle absolutely precedence matters – we all pay taxes, we all usage urban transport, we all usage the same sewage, we all poison ourselves with the same smog, etc. We do not request to agree immediately on abortion and euthanasia in order to agree on concretelosis flooding our city, the necessity to build nurseries, clean streets, etc.
The Confederate proved that she was able to make an agreement with part of the Unpartisan Local Governments. If the Law and Justice could tame their political appetite and alternatively of trying to gain something personally, they focused on taking the city of the Platform, then with the resignation of the sign and self-promotion they might besides be able to establish a akin alliance. The problem, however, is Kaczyński's mentality, which seems to be incapable to compromise, playing "all or nothing" for years.
Is Warsaw worth liberal mass?
In addition to the Confederate or Kukiz’15, the Law and Justice Council can look for different prowess of left-wing organizations, which place greater emphasis on social sensitivity than the necessity of a moral revolution. Of course, with another Bocheński or Wipler there will be no success, but Patryk Jaka, who promised to make Peter Guział a vice president and resigned from the organization card, went clearly in the direction I am talking about. but it wasn't enough. Patryk Jaky is simply a blood and bone author for Warsawians. If an anti-PO coalition could be established, it would be essential to present a candidate outside the Law and Justice. For Kaczyński, this would mean losing influence, but without taking a step back the right will repeat the same mistakes indefinitely in the capital.
As we are talking about elections that will not take place for 5 years, it is worth remembering that the 3rd Way remains a large unknown, which in 2029 may already be outside the ruling coalition or simply decide to put its own candidate in the capital. most likely the right wing will immediately be outraged that it will never support it, let us give it to Holownia or Jarubas in Warsaw, but specified setting of matters all the time indicates that we do not realize the situation.
The antiPO coalition would straight benefit the Holovnia or another candidate for this option, but in the end the city would not turn much more to the left than in the regulation of Rafał Trzaskowski. besides indirect profits for the right from specified a script could be immense – starting with the set-off of Trzaskowski's career, by breaking up the PO, until beginning a series of scenarios concerning Warsaw itself in subsequent years. To put it plainly – if a candidate of the 3rd Way becomes a candidate for Warsaw, he, not a PiS politician, will have a chance in the second round. I am not indicating any circumstantial solution here, I have outlined only a fewer possible scenarios above. On the another hand, it is crucial that the right hand, especially the written one, asks itself whether Warsaw is worth liberal mass.
