The PiS candidate is meaningless. He'll be withdrawn.

We have a wave of speculation about the PiS candidate in the presidential election. I don't think it matters due to the fact that the PiS candidate won't be the president, although in the run he can run. It is very likely that it will even take off and be withdrawn after the organization authorities realize that the structures have no motivation to support a marionette doomed to failure.

The PiS authorities think that winning Donald Trump will change the temper and give the PiS candidate a win in the presidential election. In my opinion, that's incorrect thinking. Trump's win may help, though, so that the election is not won by individual from Donald Tusk's squad (presumably Rafał Trzaskowski), but it surely does not warrant the PiS candidate's win, no substance who it is.

The party's authorities besides think that it will be possible to repeat the 2015 communicative erstwhile a little-known candidate – Andrzej Duda, who managed to win against Bronisław Komorowski, was presented. However, the current situation differs dramatically.

In 2015, Duda was fresh, and the PiS was on a growth wave, due to the fact that the PO had behind it a mass of affairs (e.g. with the construction of very costly highways where the performers did not get the money) and simply fatigued by a squad that ruled for 8 years. Besides, Bronisław Komorowski was not a good president and had a terrible campaign. People wanted to change, it was besides seen after the consequence of Paweł Kukiz, who scored 20% in the first round.

In another words, Komorowski's shame was to support, the soft electorate did not see authority in him. And the full conflict in the presidential election is simply a fight for a soft electorate. To go to the election and vote – as it did in parliamentary elections 2023, where the soft electorate went and voted for the "Third Way", which many of them most likely regret now. Young people thought a cool tv presenter would be a benefactor. Unfortunately. individual named Simon Holovny, and individual must benefit from it. Not a Polish society.

Back to the 2025 presidential election. Now the situation is completely different. There is an expanding number of PiS government scandals, a large part of the electorate is already turning away, even due to the fact that the PiS agreed to climate policy, a lock-down covid and excessive aid to Ukraine. This is shown by the current president Andrzej Duda, who awarded the awards of president Zelenski, who supports the flag movement in Ukraine. Of course, the PiS organization can inactive number on about 30% of affirmative electorate in Poland, but the negative electorate of PiS is well above 50%, which prevents winning elections.

The organization authorities most likely besides have the view that people will vote for the Law and Justice out of hatred for the PO, or against Tusk. And that might add a fewer percent, but it doesn't outweigh the scales. Still, hot heads in the organization authorities would like to put on a candidate. It will end like Margaret Kidawa-Błońska in the 2020 presidential election, which in the run went with a staff of 5 people. Nobody believed in it, and on the occasion of the confusion with the envelope elections it was immediately changed to Rafał Trzaskowski, who had already had solid support and achieved a very good result.

Unlike in PiSe he will be on the po squad with Rafał Trzaskowski. Not only are PO people able to vote for him, but all antiPiS, including soft electorate. In the second round, Trzaskowski is able to vote even part of the Confederate electorate, so as not to vote for the Law and Justice. People are mostly getting worse in Poland erstwhile it comes to being here, and they realize that Tusk and his crew are bullshitting about fixing things, but it is inactive good adequate for Poles to follow the stupid criteria of a nicer grin or scaring PiSem.

That's why I think that in the end, even if the PiS exposes the candidate, they will yet retreat it due to the fact that in time they will realize that they will lose. In the United States, Trump and his constituents pulled Republicans, not Republicans dragged Trump.

It is worth recalling the last local elections in Krakow. The appointment of the candidate for president of Krakow besides lasted a long time, in the end it was the erstwhile voivode Łukasz Kmita, who gained only 20% in I round. This is little than the list of the PiS to the City Council of Krakow (23%) and little than the list of the PiS to the Seymik voivodship in the territory of the city of Kraków (25%). It can be concluded from this that in the electorate of PiSu, any voters preferred independent (and formerly associated with PO) Luke Gibala alternatively than Luke Kmita of PiSu. It is besides worth noting that there were as many as 9 presidential candidates in Krakow, of which 2 withdrew and supported the current president Alexander Miszaliski from the PO.

It was akin in Warsaw. To the Mazowieckie Seymik and the PiS Municipal Council, he had about 23% and that's what Tobias Bocheński had for the president of Warsaw. A boy just not known, put up just so that in this entry I could analyse this social experiment, which confirmed that specified a little-known candidate anointed by the organization has just as much support as the party.

It is worth noting that Rafał Trzaskowski had much higher support in Warsaw (57%) than the PO list itself to the City Council or the Mazowieckie Sejmik (less than 50%).

In addition, it is besides worth recalling the situations with the selection of the Marshal of Małopolska Province. Lukasz Kmita, who was being pushed by the organization authorities, did not receive the majority in the Sejm on respective occasions. In another words, the councillors of the Sejm elected from the PiS did not support this candidacy and the organization office had to admit the failure and agree to a candidate who was acceptable locally.

The PiS doesn't have quite a few run money right now, so it's besides going to be hard to advance and convince people to individual fresh with the PiS sign.

Putting a PiSu candidate in the presidential election is simply doomed. And it's not just about winning and who's going to be president, it's about the destiny of the organization and the people who were connected to PiS. Let us remember that the President's position involves a crucial influence on power and pointing out many another positions and appointments to crucial positions. The election of a fresh president outside Tusk's crew could lead to fresh parliamentary elections.

Therefore, I believe that not so much the PiS authorities, but people connected to the structures would like a candidate without a sign, which the organization will not support, but an electorate of PiSu plus a soft electorate that will go to vote for a good candidate with charisma alternatively than a party.

I am going to say that the most sensible script for PiSu would be to support the candidacy of Mark Jakubiak, who, in addition to the PiSu electorate, is able to pull an additional electorate with him, just as he attracts netizens to his Facebook channels, Tik Tok and youtube, where he has any of the biggest coverage and on Thursday's live watches him for respective 1000 people. Jacobiak would surely gain part of the Confederate electorate, which does not like Sławomir Mentzen. With all due respect to his cognition and what he does – I am convinced that if Menzten takes off, he will have a weak score, he is simply not fit to be president. And this is where Confederate activists should halt lying to each other.

Of course, Jakubiak would not follow the instructions of the PiSu authorities from the machine, but he would surely not harm it. On the another hand, he is determined to halt a brothel in the economy and dismantle the state by the current government.

In addition, Marek Jakubiak has long supported the freedom environment, is simply a patriot, does not like green order, he is simply a proponent of referendums, and besides an entrepreneur, he understands the economy and as a erstwhile military he knows the defence – which in the election run will be important.

In addition, Marek Jakubiak is simply a Warsawian, and so he would naturally and effectively score the inability of Rafał Trzaskowski as president of Warsaw. I do not want to compose about Rafał Trzaskowski, but it is known that I, with my slogan light DREW, DIZLEM, MY CLIMATE, will not support the Eurocrat whose "planet is on fire" and wants to destruct the Polish climate economy which China, the US and Russia have no interest in.

Of course, I see more presidential candidates than I do, who are besides going to take off. specified as Jan Kubań, with whom I cooperate constantly by educating society economically and promoting direct democracy or Rafał Piech, with whom I have seen respective times and supported his Polish movement. However, 1 must be pragmatic and realistic. The presidential election is won by 1 individual who will convince himself of the majority, not the 1 who will get a good score, and then disintegrate like Paweł Kukiz in 2015. And here with all due respect to his individual and his postulates, but he failed to build a unchangeable backdrop, so he had to lavenge from PSL to the Law and Justice, and unfortunately he did not play anything for his constituents – not even insignificant changes in local referendums.

Of course, Jakubiak is not a crystalline figure, due to the fact that the fact that you are an entrepreneur most likely carries behind you the baggage of bad experiences. But Trump is not a saint either, yet he definitely convinced people. due to the fact that it's not the Pope's election, and it's not about being a saint, it's about being yourself, being real and reasonable. And to say what it's like, a simple message, no bullshit and no loitering, due to the fact that since the deception and lairing will be the Tusk team, who already pretends that it did not support the green order and did not fight crosses in schools or the march of independence. This team's candidate will just be a controlled actor.

In conclusion, just as Republicans in the US did not like Trump and did not want him as a candidate due to the fact that he was besides independent, but they had to recognise him due to the fact that so wanted the electorate, so now the Law and Justice should accept that in Poland only individual with own capital and charisma can win elections, not organization puppet or long-deserved organization activist.

The question, however, is whether the presidential elections will take place – due to the fact that as Marek Jakubiak himself notes – the current squad at hand is that there should be no election, due to the fact that then from the vending device the president takes over the Marshal, or Simon Holownia, who cried over the Constitution before the elections, and after the election he had already given a crap about it and did not interfere with the unlawful entry into TVP and the blocking of broadcasting.

Incidentally, I had the chance to meet Mr Mark personally in 2019, erstwhile I collected signatures under his candidacy for MP from Krakow from the list of Independent Local Governments. I think in this presidential election I would be willing to support him – of course without the PiS sign. Here's a photograph of Mr. Mark, which I utilized at the beginning of the entry. marketplace in Kraków.