On 9 June, Polish citizens elected their representatives in the European Parliament. However, in addition to 53 mandates belonging to the Republic, another Pole will be appointed in the next word of office in the benches of the EP – president of the Polish Electoral Action in Lithuania-Union of the Christian Families Waldemar Tomaszewski. For the 4th time in a row.
For the 4th time, the AWPL-ZCHR itself ran for elections to the European Parliament. It received 39 202 votes, or 5.78%, and this consequence is crucial in the autumn elections to the Lithuanian national parliament.
The ruling organization defended the leadership position
The second place was taken by the Lithuanian Social Democratic organization (LSDP), gaining 17.98 percent of the vote. This is the failure of the group that prepares to win and take power before the autumn elections to the Lithuanian Sejm. The impact on the June consequence may be due to mediocre leadership resulting from the Hamletisation of Vilija Blinkevičiūtė not only in a convincing way to find the course of the party, but even its individual plans, i.e. its possible return to national policies from the European Parliament, in which it has been sitting since 2009. It is improbable that the renewal of the mandate of Blinkevičiūtė, which will be 1 of 2 mandates acquired by the LSDP, will aid to clarify them.
The main governing organization in the erstwhile word – the Lithuanian Association of Farmers and Greens (LVŽS) – received 9.13 percent of the vote and 1 mandate. Like the presently forming coalition ruling the highly liberal Freedom organization (LP) with 8.09 percent support. For the second it is simply a moderately comforting consequence allowing politicians of a comparatively fresh organization to hope for a permanent entry in the shoes of the progressive section of the Lithuanian electorate.
The divided organization against LVŽS "In the name of Lithuania" (VL) has already won only 5.95 percent votes and 1 mandate, which undermines the large plans of erstwhile Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, who seemingly overestimated the brand name of his own name. The Union of Nation and Justice (TTS) and the Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LSLR) took over 1 mandate with the support of 5.45 and 5.41% respectively. For liberals it is the weakest consequence in their erstwhile starts to the EP and the alarm bell before the elections to the Seymas. This is another example of eating a coalition appetizer by a akin main governing organization in its profile.
For many commentators in Lithuania, surprise was the consequence of the TSS and a mandate for its leader Petras Gražulis, a policy known for its harsh language, directed, among others, against LGBT environments or Jews.
Some commentators considered the results of the elections to the European Parliament as the announcement of the further fragmentation of Seimas following the October elections. Turnout in Lithuania was 1 of the lowest in the Union. It was smaller only in Croatia. Only 28.97 percent of the eligible people voted, which requires caution before drawing besides far-reaching conclusions on the basis of them for the parliamentary elections, in which attendance is likely to be clearly higher.
Some of the fewer minority
The Polish organization can celebrate success. Its main base is simply a national number corresponding to 6.5% of the population of Lithuania, which makes it challenging to cross the threshold in the parliamentary elections of 5%. The mandate in the European Parliament and membership of the European faction – now European Conservatives and Reformists (ECRs) – gives parties additional funds to keep staff and offices, which is not the least crucial for the functioning of the party. However, the elections to the EP were besides a ground for cooperation with the Russian number in fresh (geo)political conditions.
It is worth noting that in our part of Europe, fewer parties representing national and cultural minorities are capable of obtaining mandates in the EP. This play succeeds for the 4th time in Romania (RMDSZ). In this country, there are just over a million Hungarians of 6 percent of the population. On the another hand, 456,000 of their countrymen, representing 8.37 percent of the population in Slovakia, were no longer able to make strong, united political representation to gain their own MEP. The Swedish People's organization of Finland (SFP) regularly wins 1 mandate, however, with the autonomous Åland Islands and the Pawi and Freedom Movement (DPS) representing 8.4% of Bulgarian citizens of Turkish origin.
The elections to the European Parliament shall be held in Lithuania in a proportionate manner. The formal electoral threshold is 5 percent, but, as in the elections to the Sejm, parties and possibly coalitions that have exceeded it, gotta get at least 60% of all the votes cast in the elections. If they have obtained a combined lower proportion of votes, further parties or coalitions are allowed to allocate their seats until this level of support is reached.
History of the road to the European Parliament
The votes are converted into national mandates by the highest residual method, resulting in an effective level of support at which the organization participates in the division of mandates may be higher than the formal threshold of 5%, depending on the overall arrangement of the results of all parties. This time it favoured letters barely exceeding this formal threshold.
It was different in the first elections following Lithuania's entry into the European Union, in which the organization of Poles did not participate on its own, but as part of a coalition with the Union of the Russians of Lithuania under the name “Together we are strength”. Although it gained 68,937 votes at the time, or 5.71 percent of all cast (for the coalition the formal threshold was besides 5 percent), the distribution was specified that no of the 13 seats that were then allocated to Lithuania got the candidate of the coalition of Poles and Russians. It is worth noting that the Russians were leading in it at the time. This is Sergei Dmitriev, leader of the Union, was the 1 on the coalition list.
In 2009, the then AWPL already competed alone. At the time, she gained importantly less, due to the fact that 46,293 votes. However, with a very low turnout of 20.98 percent (then the lowest in the full EU) this gave support to the Poles' organization 8.2 percent and for the first time a mandate for the long-term leader of the Waldemar Tomaszewski party.
In 2014, the organization of Poles entered into a coalition with another Russian number organization – Alians of Russians and moved on to the elections called the Waldemar Tomaszewski Block. specified a movement was a derivative of very good, for a number party, the consequence of the leader of the AWPL in the 2 weeks earlier presidential elections – Tomaszewski gained 8.35 percent of the votes. The support of the run on the character of the leader and the authoritative alliance with the Russians, who were coquetted by skeptical statements of AWPL-ZCHR activists towards the Majdan Revolution, brought success. The list of the Block received 92,074 votes, or 7.6 percent of all votes cast. Tomaszewski could again sit in the benches of the Europarliament.
The consequence was completely different 5 years ago. Again, under the name of Waldemar Tomaszewski's Block, his leader managed to win a ticket, but only in a way a throw on the tape, due to the fact that the list had won only 69,263 votes in 2019, which amounted to 5,5 percent. The election again announced a trend, but this time a decline. 2 months earlier, the Polish organization suffered losses in local governments, and in the parliamentary elections a year later, it was at least under the electoral threshold (4.97 percent) and alternatively of 8 seats took only 3 in the single-mandate constituency. AWPL-ZCHR is inactive recovering these losses, which was signaled by last year's local government elections, in which it noted any reinforcement.
In the June 9 elections, the threshold was exceeded, which could well bode before the elections to the national parliament. However, in absolute figures, the AWPL-ZCHR received about 7,000 votes little than in 2009, erstwhile the lowest consequence in the Euro-Parliamentary elections had so far fallen, and attendance was, after all, 15 years ago by about 8 percent points.
Vilnius Party
In order to thoroughly examine what happens in the electorate of the Polish organization and its surroundings, it is essential to examine its distribution. one more time AWPL-ZChR gained votes mainly in Vilnius – the erstwhile area of the Vilnius Voivodeship II of the Republic of Poland. In the Soloncznica area, where Poles represent the absolute majority of residents (76.31 percent), AWPL-ZCHR obtained 82.49 percent of votes. In the Vilnius region (46.75 percent of Poles) the votes were 40.81 percent. In Vilnius (15.35 percent of Poles) AWPL-ZChR received 6.35% of support. In the Trotsky area (27.53% of Poles) 18.97 percent of votes, Święciński (24.31 percent) 15.25 percent, and in the Szyrwincki area (8.53 percent of Poles) – 3.19% of votes. Compared to the elections 5 years ago, the score of the organization was as much as 18 percent points higher in the Solitsk region, but 2 percent points lower in the Vilnius region, 2 percent points lower in the town of Vilnius, 3 percent points higher in the Trotsk region, 2 percent points higher in the St.
What is visible at first glance is support for the organization proportionally lower than participation of the Polish community but in the Soloncznica region. It is natural – no political force gets all the votes of a social group, whose interests it captures in its agenda and actions. In the Soloncznica area, the organization is more than a representation of the Polish community. It has been identified by many local residents on the basis of local communityism, which has been managed for 3 decades by grown-up people, who present form regional authorities and local structures of AWPL-ZCHR, but besides the staff of most public institutions and NGOs.
However, the difference between the support for the organization and the proportion of the Polish population is very crucial in Vilnius and the Szyrwin region. Unless the second weighs much in absolute numbers, the exact other is in the case of Vilnius. According to estimates from 2021, 85 1000 Poles surviving there constitute 46.5 percent of all Poles in Lithuania. However, it is clear that the organization has a problem with their mobilisation. Votes from Vilnius accounted for 28 percent of all votes obtained in fresh elections by AWPL-ZCHR. For comparison, in erstwhile elections to the EP, Waldemar Tomaszewski's block in Vilnius gained 34 percent of its support. Thus, any failure of support of urban Poles, most frequently surviving in the Lithuanian social environment, can be noticed. Commentators frequently besides mention the universal supposedly correctity that the inhabitants of large cities are more liberal worldviewally, which contrasts with the unquestionable cultural conservatism of the program, rhetoric, but besides the attitudes of AWPL-ZCHR politicians.
Circles of local Polish liberals operate a communicative that the failure of support of Vilnius Poles is taking place, as they increasingly decide to vote for Lithuanian parties. In this context, the Freedom organization is most frequently mentioned, whose prominent activist – Ewelina Dobrowolska – is the Minister of Justice in the current Lithuanian government. Sometimes the Lithuanian Social Democratic organization is besides indicated in this role. In view of the weaknesses of the Lithuanian social investigation studio sector, which publicise the results of low quality and item polls, you can effort to look for guidelines on the behaviour of the Polish electorate in Vilnius in 1 of its districts – Nowa Wilejka. Only in this peripheral district, Poles live in a much more denser density.
This erstwhile town was not incorporated into Vilnius until 1957. Even in the early 21st century, Poles were 1 3rd of the inhabitants there, and with the Russians more than half. To this day, Russian is the main audible language in public space. AWPL-ZChR received the following results in the committees of this territory in the last and erstwhile (in brackets) EP elections: Palydovo – 14.42 percent (18.02), Rugiagėli Džiaugsmo – 4.89% (7.47) and Kalnėnų – 1.78% (the committee did not exist). In summing up the results from the fresh Zealand commissions, the average support for AWPL-ZChR amounted to 16.74 percent against 20.44 percent 5 years earlier. The decline in support is visible. So, did fresh Zealand Poles choose another parties?
In all territory committees, but those at Džiaugsmo and Kalnėnē, the Freedom organization obtained results clearly below the Vilnius average. At fresh Wilejka, she received 13.82 percent of the vote, 2.5 percent points little than the average for Vilnius. However, there is simply a social origin involved. The 2 mentioned commissions are among the fresh single-family houses in the area of the erstwhile Vilnius Colony. The right fresh Wilejka is simply a post-industrial district, erstwhile occupied by the working class. It is not a natural liberal electorate.
However, erstwhile the committees mentioned above test support for social democrats, it turns out that it was 8.34%, which is below the average support in the city of 16.33%. no of the parties in which notable politicians of Polish nationalities appeared and which is expected to receive the voices of Poles according to liberal commentators, in the short circuit they lived in did better than in the city. On the contrary. The Labour organization achieved a score of 1.41% in the district, which marks the gradual extinction of this party. It is hard to imagine that the voices of Poles flow there in a crucial proportion.
Polish Party
If you look closely at the Podwileń province, besides at the level of basic voting circuits, you can see how much support for the organization correlates with the proportion of the Polish population in the given area. A good illustration will be the distribution of votes in the Vilnius area, where Poles constitute a comparative majority, but which is clearly different from the settlement of suburban ancients (in Lithuania are the smallest units of administrative division) by visitors another than Polish nationalities. According to the 2011 census, Poles were only 24.4% of residents in suburban Aviaries – AWPL-ZChR received 7.64% and 33.65% in the 2 committees. In the Reich, this ratio was 30.2% of the population to 6.86 and 5.05% of the votes per organization in 2 premises for this town. In Pogirach, 44.8% of Poles face 36.16 and 15.9% of support in 2 committees. Meanwhile, in the distant town of Podbrzez, where Poles constituted 60.6 percent of the population according to the 2011 census, 61.25 percent of the votes were cast on the AWPL-ZCHR. 79.6% of Poles lived in the border of Belarus, and on 9 June 75.21 percent of the votes on the AWPL-ZCHR were cast in the local committee. In the peripheral Suzanes, this account represented 77 percent to 78.49 percent.
Comparing these figures to the results of 5 years ago, for example, in the only then commission in AWPL-ZCHR Aviations, was then 5 percent points higher than the average of support from the 2 basic circuits having their commissions in the village. In the Reich, support declined by 2 percent points according to a akin account. In Pograje, where the number of electoral committees was besides increased, this level was, however, 2 percent points higher than 5 years earlier on 9 June. In Podbrzez, where there is inactive only 1 primary election committee, support for the AWPL-ZCHR was besides 4 percent points higher than in erstwhile elections. Similarly, in Royal Miedniki, where the increase was only 1 point percent.
These results indicate that the organization mostly holds positions in the Vilnius region, but in suburban areas where Poles are already minority. Turnout in this year's elections to the EP was as low as 24 percent points than 5 years ago. usually specified a low turnout was rewarded by AWPL-ZCHR, due to the fact that local Poles were mobilizing to vote more than ethnically Lithuanian electorate. This time, unlike in the Soloncznica region, the AWPL-ZCHR electorate in the Vilnius region did not show specified a superior mobilization, although the activity of all its voters was about 4 percent points higher than the national average.
The correlation between the proportion of the Polish population and the support for the AWPL-ZChR becomes even brighter in specified an artificial area as Trotsky, which consists of an area already existing before 1939 in the Republic of Lithuania, to which they are glued from the east of the erstwhile Lithuanian province. And so in the old Polukno era, where Poles make up the majority of residents, AWPL-ZCHR received 46.51 percent of the votes in the local committee. In Landwarów, Poles constituted 25.7% of the population in 2011, and the organization received 28.4% of the vote.
In the west of the Święciński region, analogous in its genesis and geoethnic strategy to Trocki, AWPL-ZChR received 44.73 percent of Poles in Podbrody (as of 2011 census) – 31.06 percent of votes and 45.83 percent in Maguny, where Poles make up the majority. In another parts of the area, practically uninhabited by Poles, for example, 1.47 percent of the votes in Hanuszyszki were cast on the party, and 0.86% in the advanced Court.
The organization of Residency
However, the organization gained noticeable support besides outside Vilnius. In Wisaginia, 22 percent of the votes were on her list, in Klaipeda – 6.9 percent. In Wisaginia, Poles, according to the 2011 census, accounted for 9.32 percent of the population and the Russians already accounted for 52.16%. It is simply a town built in 1975 for the operation of the Ignalina atomic power plant, where it brought in many workers from the depths of the russian Union. In the port Klaipeda – the erstwhile German Memel, the number of Poles is marginal, and the Russians constituted 19.6% of residents according to the aforementioned census. AWPL-ZCHR so took a step to regain the support of the Russian minority, which contributed to the top successes in the past decade. However, the main aggregate of Lithuanian Russians (53 1000 Out of 141,000 Across the country) is Vilnius. And there the organization cannot boast of specified success. The conditions have changed in that there are no more typical structures for these communities, due to the fact that both the Union of Lithuania and the Allies of the Russians have been self-destructed.
In support of the Russians, AWPL-ZCHR activists worked primarily through a clear defence of schools with Russian language of teaching. The reflections of the erstwhile Minister of Education of Lithuania Gintautas Jakštas from the beginning of this year on the gradual abolition of teaching in Russian, the force of Vice-Mer Vilnius Arūnas Šileris on the same, that is, the introduction of Lithuanian into the teaching of further subjects in schools with languages of teaching of minorities, have provoked strong opposition by the Polish party. On a large march, organized by the Union of Poles in Lithuania (Tomaszewski is besides its president) in defence of schools serving national minorities, which passed through Vilnius on 23 March, the parents of Russian-speaking schools in the capital and Klaipeda were numerous. The list of AWPL-ZCHR candidates included representatives of this community. From a tall, 3rd place was run by Mikhail Andrijanow, self-defence coach, at the same time choreographer, known in Klaipeda as a social activist and charity activist, there was Tamara Szuklina, erstwhile activist of the Allies from Klaipeda, who competed for Seimasu in 2020 for AWPL-ZHR in the local single-mandate constituency, and Viktor Woronin from Wisagini, who was on site 20.
New bastion – fresh battlefield
He draws attention to the very advanced proportion of support for the Polish organization in the Solonnik region. In the polling commission in the village of Dojlidy, there was a evidence of support for the AWPL-ZChR – 148 out of 152 voters voted for it, who appeared at the polling station, or 97.37 percent of voters.
The Soloncznica territory played a large function for the party, as it marked itself with the highest attendance in Lithuania – at the level of 44.84 percent of the Powered. As a result, votes from the Soloncznica region accounted for 23.66 percent of all votes collected by Waldemar Tomaszewski. 5 years ago, 14.07 percent of all votes cast on the AWPL-ZCHR were cast there.
This could mean an increase in the importance of the Solitary structure of the party. In the last decade, politicians from the Soloncznica area have not played as crucial a function in national politics as Jarosław Narkiewicz from the Trotsky region, at the time vice-president of Seimasu, and then Minister of Transport and Communications, or Zdzisław Saziński from the St. The election consequence strengthens the position of head of the Solitary Structures Zdzisław Palewicz. Since 2009, it has been the mayor of the Solonnik region. In 2023 he obtained re-election for this post with a score of over 82 percent, which was a national record. In 2019 he won in the mayor's election with 75% of the vote, and in 2016 74 percent. He is the only mayor of AWPL-ZCHR in Lithuania, thus the Solitary self-government is the last straight managed by the organization of Poles.
Palewicz, before the erstwhile parliamentary elections, was selected as a candidate for Seimas from the territory of his single-mandate constituency. This was followed by a regional organization convention that approved its start. However, at the last consecutive organization decided to present Beata Pietkiewicz – the then deputy mera, who was able to registry only as an independent candidate. This choice was not advantageous for the parties. Pietkiewicz shortly fell into conflict with the party's leadership, abandoning her ranks in the spring of 2022, becoming an acute critic of AWPL-ZCHR.
Another territory in the battlefield
For the position of the October elections to Seimas, it is crucial that the message of the Lithuanian Social Democratic organization of 14 June, which declared that in this year's elections to the Sejm in JOW No. 57 (German) will exhibit a Pole – Robert Komarowski. It's a political bomb. Komarowski is simply a erstwhile activist of the Polish Electoral Action in Lithuania and a deputy of the Vilnius region in 2016-2022. Strong Lithuanian parties have long since given no Polish a chance to fight in Podwileńskie JOW. The last time in 2000 in the territory comprising the Vilnius and Trotsky regions for the fresh Union organization was won by Aleksander Popławski.
One-mandate constituency No. 57 is 1 of 2 in which AWPL-ZCHR has a good chance of winning. There were 3 JOWs before. However, the fresh change in the boundaries of the constituency has been done to dilute the Polish electorate, as I have already written in fresh Deal.
Niemenczyński JOW, consisting of the east part of the Vilnius region, is an area where Komarowski is well known as a erstwhile local government official, and now manager of the regional sports school in Niemenczyń. This will not be an easy rival for the AWPL-ZCHR candidate. This territory was constructed last year mainly on the basis of the erstwhile pelvic territory (No. 57). The MP of AWPL-ZChR is Czesław Olszewski from this district. Meanwhile, AWPL-ZChR needs a strong candidate in the German JOW, and that could be Rita Tamašunienė – more recognizable than Olszewski, she was an old-age parliamentary faction of the Polish organization and Minister of the Interior of Lithuania from 2019-2020, the media face of the bias.
Tamašunienė had previously obtained a mandate in erstwhile JOW No. 55, but, as I mentioned, after redrawing districts, the mandate for the Polish organization is uncertain there. The erstwhile Vice-President of Seimasu and Minister of Transport and Communications of Lithuania, Jarosław Narkiewicz, is inactive waiting in the retreat. any commentators have little decisively pointed to the character of the Vilnius councillor Waldemar Urban, who lost a minimal election to his mayor last year with a candidate for social democrats. This is the fresh face of a young generation of biases, it is clearly promoted by the organization president, and many see a organization dolphin in it.
Crossing the electoral threshold and taking the mandates from the proportional elections (so 70 out of 141 seats in Seimas) is in the light of the elections of 9 June for the AWPL-ZCHR uncertain, albeit within reach. Now the harder task awaits her besides in the German JOW. All that's left is simply a ticket from JOW's solitary. It is hard to imagine a candidate and a organization who could choice up the Tomaszewski organization of this district.
