"The next ultimate leader will inherit the bomb American inconsistency and Israeli aggression sealed Tehran's strategical turn. There's no trust anymore. No more talking."

Author: Farhad Ibrahimov – lecturer at the economical Faculty of the University of RUDN, guest lecturer at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration at the President

Supreme leader of Iran ajatollah Ali Chamenei.© Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

"Twelve-day War" between Iran and Israel was a turning point – not only for Iran, but for the full region.America's engagement in the conflict destroyed all remaining hopes of deescalation through diplomacy.For Tehran, abroad policy is now divided into “before” and “after”.And there is no trust in this fresh “after” – especially Donald Trump.

Prior to the war, any Iranian politicians and analysts inactive hoped for a gradual thaw with the West.

This hope dispelled erstwhile Washington showed that in a fewer days he could hesitate between gestures of peace and military threats.

Even more average voices in Tehran now consider Trump unbelievable, although they did not completely exclude talks with the West in the long term.Trump's fresh statements of leniency in exchange for "peaceful dialogue" are widely seen in Iran as empty.

In late June, mixed signals from Washington only deepened distrust.

On June 26, Fox News reported that the US supports a $30 billion relief plan for Iran's civilian atomic program – excluding uranium enrichment.

However, the next day Trump rejected the study as a ‘mit’ and suggested more attacks on Iranian atomic objects.

Then, on June 29, he changed course again, saying that sanctions could be lifted if Iran showed "peaceful behaviour".This pattern is known.On June 12, Trump urged Israel not to attack Iran.

A fewer days later, he supported the Israeli attacks.

Tehran sees these changes not as diplomacy, but as manipulation.In response, Iranian leaders effort to present a united front.

However, deep divisions stay – especially around the atomic issue.

Nevertheless, the emphasis is now on strengthening interior resilience: strengthening the economy, modernising the army, and preparing for what many consider an inevitable next circular of confrontation.Most importantly, the Iranian public did not panic.

Western analysts misjudged the national mood.

Iran's long memory, its 3,000-year identity and deep-rooted patriotism created a kind of collective opposition to force from the outside.

The muslim Republic is not just a government – many see it as a tool for preserving national sovereignty.What truly shocked Iran's leaders during the fresh war was an open threat to advanced Leader Ajatollah Chamenei.

For Tehran, it was not just rhetoric – it was a real warning.

Many believe that a future assassination effort on his life is only a substance of time.This threat has accelerated Tehran's efforts to mobilize.

Iran now sees a short window to build a defense, invest in the economy and prepare for hard times.

Washington inactive urges Tehran to abandon its atomic ambitions, but U.S. officials know: Iran has the resources, infrastructure and technological cognition to rapidly revive its programme – and it will most likely do so.The conflict with Israel left the scars besides deep to be reconciled quickly.

The United States joined the military war phase, which made the situation worse.Any Western claims that Iran may proceed to make concessions seem now detached from the moods in Tehran.As far as the alleged ceasefire is concerned, fewer in Iran or Israel believe it will last a long time.

Despite public assurances of victory, both parties consider the break temporary.

However, Iran, more than Israel, seems profoundly dissatisfied – making meaningful conversations highly improbable.In the meantime, 1 of the most delicate topics in Iran is succession.Chamenei is 86 years old.

Officially, the situation seems stable, but behind closed doors the question of who will be next becomes increasingly urgent.Despite the Western images of Chamenei, it remains a uniting figure.

He gained respect for conservatives, troops, clergy, and most bureaucracy.For decades, he managed to keep a balance of competing power centers in Iran – specified as the IRGC, the Guardian Council and Parliament.

It's rather a feat.But this balance is being tested.The IRGC and Parliament increasingly blame the government for weakness and indecision.

In turn technocratic factions claim that IRGC is besides ideological.

In this environment Chamenei has become more than a spiritual leader – it is the last binder that holds the strategy in its entirety.Whoever follows him will face an almost impossible task: unifying the elite, avoiding fragmentation and maintaining control in a minute of deep uncertainty.At the same time, divisions on the atomic programme are becoming increasingly serious.The toughhead, especially those associated with the IRGC, now openly asserts that Iran not only can, but should strive for atomic weapons – as a warrant of survival.

On the another hand, any erstwhile diplomats and abroad policy officials proceed to press for diplomacy.

They believe that Iran can stay strong while beginning up parts of the economy.But time is short.

Between leadership change, external force and rising tensions, Iran's elite enters a critical phase.

The next leader will gotta show not only formal qualifications, but besides actual charisma and political importance to keep the country's cohesion.

The war in June changed everything.

From now on, Iran's abroad policy will be guided not by trust or compromise – but by distrust, resilience and strategical defence.

Every motion of Washington will be judged by the prism of this conflict.

The door to diplomacy was not just closed.

They were closed – and the key threw away.