Again I am tempted not to spoil the essential effect and end the column on the title, due to course nothing else will happen on Sunday noon. On the another hand, all author wants him to go under all possible arms, which is why let me explain in detail, especially the PO voterswhat they can and shouldn't expect. First of all, the announced attendance in this march is an absolute abstraction, about a million people in their right head do not even think, but Trzaskowski will number as much as needed.
What's this circus for then? Theoretically, it is about showing strength, but in fact the goal is to keep what else on the PO side has remained with the hope of a small upward correction, and it is contrary to appearances an optimistic variant. In the second variant, Tusk digs all hope of creating a government, and since he takes specified a risk, it is known that he does not number on any acquisition of power. What is it to bury the opposition government? Here almost all analysts agree that the march represents the top threat, not to the Law and Justice, but to the 3rd Way. It is boring to say that the flow of the electorate between PO and PiS does not exist. The only possible flows are an anti-script moving from the Left through the 3rd Way to the PO, or mixing in the same boiler. And the second flow is indecisive, which means mostly the return of the electorate to the Law and Justice, the partial supply of the Confederate, or the remaining home.
Nothing else can happen after the march. If a smaller or akin number of demonstrators appears on the streets of Warsaw, then PO quotations will stay in place or will fall a bit. If more appears, the PO can get from 2% at the expense of the 3rd Way, which means the dream of the Law and Justice. The full task from all sides is highly safe for the PiS, and even crucial, if the variant of eating the Holovnia-PSL appetizer is met. On the streets of Warsaw, however, no 1 outside the group “Silny together”, any of which will be taken by buses and modest delegations of opposition parties will be seen. Looking at it from a distance and without political commitment, it's hard to realize why Tusk has gotten himself into a trap that has no way out. The paradox of this matia is that success means full failure, due to the fact that it should be considered a failure of chance to exercise power.
Such will draw conclusions, although to logical pain, has a serious flaw, due to the fact that it does not consider that we are dealing with Donald Tuski. The real goal for Tusk is to keep power in the PO, which is essential to accomplish a better electoral consequence than it achieved Schetina in fresh elections. Tusk knows perfectly well that everything else is beyond his reach, so he does not care at all about the destiny of the 3rd Way, due to the fact that if he reaches 30% of his support, he will be able to say that he did everything possible, but failed to convince the opposition to 1 list. specified a strategy besides has tremendous possible in the long-term political perspective, the firing of the 3rd Way means that the PO will become the only major competition for the Law and Justice Party.
Some say that Tusk will besides throw out beyond the brackets of the Left, but that is highly unlikely. First, the Left decided to go with the PO and even get her place on stage. Secondly, 5% is simply a safe threshold for the only leftist organization in Poland, due to the fact that it takes about 1.2 million votes to survive. The "Third Road" had no choice but to cut off from the march, otherwise it would have arranged itself on plates as an appetizer. In summary, Tusk knows he won't get powerbut to keep the position of the PO leader he needs a consequence that will warrant it. And that's what this march is for, for nothing else!
