Whether they like it or not, the facts and reality are clear – the last period and a half of the run will belong to POPISEverything else is missing. Smaller groups had time to present themselves and play theirs, but they all scored a false start. The "Third Road" dealt with herself and the conflict with Tusk, not with the Law and Justice, the Confederacy gathered a disappointed POPiS electorate, but erstwhile the letter was announced it became a smaller POPiS alternatively of an alternative. The left is barely dead, and the candidacy of Shostak is killing her like Hartman before.
The consequence is that the last weeks of the run will dominate the 2 largest parties, at the expense of the smaller ones, due to the fact that the flow of the electorate between PO and PiS does not exist. This process actually started earlier, erstwhile the referendum was announced and a series of combinations of Tusks were to be diverted from the referendum. Today, there is virtually nothing on the top that would not come from the PO or the PiS staff, with the PO dealing with alternatively staff trolling, while the PiS dealing with electoral geography, but will shortly besides deal with financial details. In my diagnosis of the fact that the PiS will buy itself a 3rd word has not changed, and the perfect illustration to make this thesis credible is simply a loud “net error”. According to opposition media, Kaczyński was to confuse the net amount with the gross amount and as a consequence pensioners will get 2200 per hand as part of the 14th retirement.
Journalists and opposition politicians have fun, but alternatively laughter at themselves and do not realize how to win elections. 6 million pensioners do not feel hurt and although the PiS will surely not vote "Grandmother Kasia" or the hotel pensioners who hatred Kaczyński, the game is about most, not all. Identically, the situation with the referendum, which was to be a large flop and the quality of the questions PiS made a large effort to do so, but after all, more than half want to participate in the referendum. This means that more than half of them are genuinely worried that the return of Tusk means to return to All of Tusk's scamsAfter all, these questions were constructed in specified intent.
Almost all the assets, as usual, are on the side of the ruling party, which has public resources and propaganda capabilities that no opposition organization has. To comfort the PO there are 2 major disadvantages of the PiS, but they will not decide to win due to the fact that the PiS will win these elections either way, while they can decide about future governments. Firstly, the PiS has no ability to get a fresh electorate and the only thing it can do is recover the electorate. In this process, he is instrumental in helping the Confederate, who for many voters has ceased to be a punishment for the Law and Justice and has become a origin of frustration and irritability, thanks to undefeated staff movements. The second defect, the same PiS and the typical PiS of the well, see the committee for the prosecution of Tusk, which is increasingly rubbing against Smolensk. It's the dumbest way to get the voiceover back, and I think it got to Novgorod, but the losses have already come up.
The game is not about a doomed victory, but about a 3rd word and the result of this game depends solely on COPIS. Tusk has a fewer percent to collect from “Third Way” and the Left, but this will not increase the opposition potential, but cannibalism. The PiS has about 8% undecided to rebound and if it takes half, it will hold real chances of extending governments. How things are going to turn out will depend on events in the last 2 weeks if the PiS kicks off another crucial subject and money, which will cover all Jokes TuskIt'll win by far. If they do anything stupid in Smolensk style, they'll win too, but they'll lose the chance to regulation on their own. The remainder have nothing to say, they can just watch and watch what they have left.