Rafał Trzaskowski, who loses 1 percent point compared to the erstwhile election forecast for Onetu, is inactive the main challenger and favourite in the race with the most crucial seat in the Presidential Palace.
Karol Nawrocki gains, but only 0.8 percent points and inactive loses 10 percent points to Rafał Trzaskowski. The biggest problem is Sławomir Mentzen. The Confederate leader would be able to vote for more than 16% of voters — a fewer percent points little than in the erstwhile Onetu forecast — previously enjoyed a consequence of about 20 percent. Mentzen's entry script for the second circular is already becoming very, very unlikely.
What results from the failure of Rafał Trzaskowski? First of all, from the alleged Koński case —the debate held in the Świętokrzyskie town. It was originally intended to be in “one-on-one” format, or Trzaskowski-Nawrocki, and was originally called for by Karol Nawrocki and was answered by Rafał Trzaskowski.
When public tv became active in the organization of the debate, a storm began. Simon Holovnia, candidate for the 3rd Way stated that it was impossible for TVP to let only 2 candidates to participate in the debate, went to the Horses, and others followed him. Ultimately, it was a debate of 8 candidates, in which Rafał Trzaskowski did not look besides good.
Everything indicates that Simon Holovnia gained the most — at least media — in the debate. This is besides the consequence of comments. He then besides appeared on tv Republic. However, the analysis for Onetu shows that its profit is not besides high. The Holownia can number on small more than 7 percent support, which gives it no chance to enter the second round.
Interesting things in the “lower part of the stake”. A left-wing duel takes momentum
In the lower part of the stakes, interesting things happen. Adrian Zandberg can number on more support than Magdalena Biejat.
Theoretically, it would seem that she should have a better chance, but for now, Zandberg has advanced at the head of the left-wing race. We'll see what happens. Zandberg surely gained from the debates or actually the debate — candidate Together did not appear in the Horses, took part in the debate organized by the tv Republic. In Koński, however, there was a candidate for the fresh Left, Magdalena Biejat.
The second circular is simply a completely different reality.
As for the second round, Rafał Trzaskowski is inactive the favorite. If he had met with Karol Nawrocki in it, he could have had rather a clear advantage over the candidate of Law and Justice — despite the mediocre performance during the debate in Konski. It can be said that it is simply a “photography of reality” for today.
We inactive have a long May weekend, which will most likely besides be utilized in any way by candidates. After a long May weekend we have little than 2 weeks of campaign. The second circular is simply a completely different reality We will surely gotta deal with the debate “one by one” — that is, most likely Trzaskowski-Nawrocki. The staff of the main candidates are convinced that the fight will take place on razor blades.
There is no uncertainty that this crucial phase of the run is beginning. Whoever plays it better will be the winner of the regular battle.
