The introduction of border control with Germany is becoming an increasingly pressing problem for Donald Tusk's government. According to the sociologist of politics Marcin Palade, omissions in this case may have serious consequences – not only political but besides social. As he said on the show ‘Guest of Events’, the issue of migration could even lead to the dissolution of the ruling coalition and the early parliamentary elections.
We're back in the lead. KO with a crucial decrease
Palade's harsh words fell in the context of the latest IBRiS poll for Onetu. It follows that the Law and Justice regained the leadership position with support of 30.5 percent, ahead of the civilian Coalition, which fell to 25.8%. This means a failure of as much as 7.6 percent points compared to the erstwhile study.
— This failure is simply a consequence of the outflow of average voters “ The expert explained, adding that KO is losing in current crises, especially in undecided migration policies.
A border crisis more crucial than elections?
Palade pointed out that while the current public debate dominated the dispute over the validity of the presidential election, safety and the situation on the border with Germany will shortly become a priority. In his opinion, this problem is only beginning, and its culmination will take place for the period of entry into force of the fresh EU migration pact – planned for 2026.
— It's a improvement process that can break the integrity of the coalition. He stressed.
Regrouping the electorates. Right gains, liberal parties lose
The expert besides noted that the political scene is changing. Centrolewic voters change preferences and, above all, gain groups that explicitly argue EU migration policy, both in Poland and in another EU countries.
— Liberal groups are weakening and right-wing groups are increasing stronger. More and more people see the deficiency of control over migration “He judged Palade.
Nevertheless, he felt that the Law and Justice could not full benefit from this trend. — The Law and Justice has lost credibility on many issues during their governments in 2015–2023 “ He said.
Who benefits from Tusk's weakness?
Palade estimated that despite the failure of support by the ruling Donald Tusk team, the opposition PiS besides does not evidence dynamic growth.
— The weakness of KO does not automatically translate into an increase in the support of PiS. It is smaller groups that gain, like the Confederation or Confederation of the Polish Crown, which have been consistent from the beginning in opposition to the EU migration pact “He said.
In his view, we are faced with a "pour" of support for the more severe right-wing forces. Today, they talk to voters about more conservative views.
Border control: Government late?
One of the main allegations against the government is the deficiency of firm action on the border with Germany. The head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs, Tomasz Siemoniak, announced possible steps in this respect, but according to Palade, it is not adequate and besides late.
— It's a late move. This squad has repeatedly announced actions, but seldom implemented them said the expert.
He stressed that delaying the decision to reconstruct control could straight affect the sustainability of the ruling coalition. — This could reverse the power strategy and lead to earlier elections He warned.
"It will be thousands, not hundreds." Residents already feel the effects
Palade pointed out that the problem of the migration through the western border is already affecting residents of Lubuskie, Zachodniopomorskie and Dolnośląskie voivodships. In his opinion, this situation will deepen and migrants will decision further into the country.
— It won't be hundreds, it'll be thousands of people. And this will have a real impact on the safety of Poles He stressed.
