"The estimates based on the results of the CATI survey show that the support for both candidates is very equal, and the amount of statistical mistake does not let to clearly foretell who will be the winner of the election," he said on Thursday CBOS.
"In the evaluation of the result, we utilized a model based on analytical weights and multiple impouting of data gaps utilizing multi-maritime logistics regression (it allows a predictive distribution of votes based on socio-demographic characteristics of the surveyed, erstwhile electoral decisions and opinions of each candidate)" - explained experts in the published study.
The estimated attendance is 71.3 percent. According to CBOS, at this level, the results indicate that a somewhat better chance of winning has been given to Rafał Trzaskowski, on whom – according to our estimates – 50.3% (in the assurance interval of 46.0% to 54.7%) of voters will vote.
"Karol Nawrocki will gain support of 49.7% (in assurance interval from 45.3% to 54.0%). This means that the certainty of indicating the winner of the second circular of presidential elections is comparatively low," we read.
It is worth reminding that on Sunday, June 1, Poles and Poles will elect a fresh president. However, the consequence of the elections – whether Karol Nawrocki or Rafał Trzaskowski – can be found out only on Monday.
Due to the highly balanced race, the exit poll will not be sufficiently precise to give a clear answer just after the vote is finished.
