A window of possibilities and gathering around the flag
According to Dr. Grabowski, the escalation of the conflict around Taiwan will proceed to be in the interests of the ruling in China. But will it lead to military conflict? “ In my opinion, no, but we cannot regulation out specified a scenario,” says the scholar.
— The cost of war for China will only increase. The American think tank RAND corp has calculated that the American-Chinese War (the origin of which could be Taiwan) would cost you between 25 and 35 percent of GDP. This in turn could lead to the collapse of the Communist organization of China and its leadership, which Xi Jinping cannot afford," says Dr. Grabowski.
However, the expert notes that China's interior problems push China towards further escalation of the conflict.
— Among another things, the demographic issue — the Chinese population is ageing and decreasing. They have a immense sex imbalance. The country does not have a good pension support system, their economical model faces expanding challenges, including the increasing unemployment of young people, the increasing debt of the private sector or local governments, the problems of the real property market. Problems are increasing, and consequently the economical and military possible is decreasing. This shift is, of course, a long-term summit of China's problems, I anticipate in 15-20 years alternatively than five. But we can inactive imagine a script in which China's leadership will feel threatened and to defend itself, will take a step forward by invading. Thus counting on the effect ‘collections around the flag’. This play, which has appeared many times in the past of failing powers, which aims to strengthen leadership, we hear.
As prof. Bogdan Góralczyk says, Xi Jinping was born in 1953. If the Chinese leader wants to “unify Chinese lands”, he must hurry, due to the fact that ‘Possibilities window’, which results, among others, from his age, slow closes.
Former commander of the American division on the Indo-Pacific Phil Davidson warned that China could attack Taiwan in the next six years. another U.S. studies say that the "candidacy window" for China marks the period 2027-2035. These predictions are linked, among others, to the alleged readiness of the Chinese army to attack, as well as Taiwan's defence capabilities.
