Sweden in NATO – consequences for the Alliance

ine.org.pl 1 year ago

Zdjęcie: pexels-art-guzman-8079176

Analysis briefly:

The expansionist policy of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the desire to change the safety architecture of the Baltic Sea and Central and east Europe have led the Swedish public to advocate the interruption of 200 years of neutrality and the accession of Sweden to NATO.
The Kingdom of Sweden, thanks to its extended air force and its strong navy, makes a crucial contribution to the possible to deter the Russian Federation. The Stockholm authorities do not see themselves as a front state, and the specificity of their armed forces allows effective opposition to the Russian Baltic fleet in a possible conflict. The territory of Sweden in the event of war can service as a logistical hub and strategical depth for Finland and the Baltic States.
The Gotland, Bornholm and the Åland Islands represent a chain of defence islands for Sweden. Their location in the central part of the Baltic Sea creates an chance for the Alliance to control shipping at sea, prevent sabotage attacks on the critical infrastructure of allied states and effectively safe airspace.
Sweden, together with the Nordic countries, is conducting Nordic consequence exercises and maneuvers to prepare Natovian troops for Arctic military activities, due to the far-reaching interest of the Russian Federation in this region.

The historical decision on Sweden's neutrality is linked to the country's progressive weakness towards always more powerful modern European powers at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. The European-born industrial era has led to a emergence in the power of Western states, and has besides begun to lay the foundations for a conventional European power concert, to which Stockholm had no chance to enter due to its weakening position. The Swedish government has concluded that it is in the interest of the state to abandon imperial policy to grow and master the Baltic Sea coast in accordance with the rule of “the Maris Baltici domain” for neutrality policy. specified a drastic change in abroad policy was possible due to Sweden's peripheral position in terms of geopolitical calculations and power interests in the late 19th century.

During both planet Wars Sweden has tried to effectively balance between the parties to the conflict, maintaining a policy of non-involvement. This task was especially hard during planet War II, erstwhile the Scandinavian Peninsula was an area of armed action. Norway, conquered by Germany, has become an crucial hydrocarbon base for Berlin. Finland was the subject of an attack by the USSR during the winter war in November 1939. Thus, the clash of powers took place at the borders of Sweden trying to prosecute a flexible policy at all costs and yet not enter into conflict, on either side [1].

During the Cold War, Sweden utilized its neutral position to act as a political mediator between NATO countries and the Warsaw Pact. At the same time, Stockholm was aware that in the event of an outbreak of conflict, it was inevitable to endure losses and possibly enter into war, due to possible atomic escalation and planned military actions within the Baltic Sea. The Swedish authorities so conducted secret intelligence and military cooperation with the United States and NATO in order to make future interoperability with the Alliance. At the same time, the Kingdom was expanding its own military potential, creating 1 of the most powerful air forces in the world, an efficient logistics and mobilization system. The Cold War redefined Swedish neutrality, which has become a political tool for achieving certain economical benefits with the RPG countries, while at the same time improving cooperation with the West [2].

The situation began to change erstwhile Sweden joined the European Union in 1995. The Kingdom was increasingly politically linked to the West. Neutrality already included only the sphere of non-participation in military alliances. The main impetus for expanding the support of Swedes in the context of joining NATO was the neo-imperial policy of the Russian Federation, intensified after the 2008 invasion of Georgia. The breach of the Budapest Memorandum in 2014 confirmed that the West would not supply military assistance to non-block states, which sparked a serious reflection of the Swedish public [3].

After the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the support for joining the Alliance was already manifested by the majority of respondents. Russian ambitions towards Gotland besides became an alarm signal for the Swedes. This island is simply a very crucial strategical point in the Baltic Sea. Its control enables a direct impact on the safety of the Baltic States and Finland, or the control of shipping in the Baltic Sea.

Swedish intelligence pointed out that in the event of aggression against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Russia's goal would be to take control of Gotladnia in order to safe its actions at this war theatre. The possible of self-recovery of the island would be disastrous for Sweden due to the simplification of the armed forces during the period of alleged relaxation after the collapse of the USSR [4]. The current effort by the Russian Federation to redefin planet governance is simply a threat to Sweden's national security. This state of affairs has decided to join the Kingdom of Sweden in the North Atlantic Alliance and to end 200 years of neutrality [5].

Swedish military potential

The Swedish Terrestrial Army is few, due to low demographic resources and long-term budgetary cuts in defence. The Swedish military has a number of 14.7 1000 professional soldiers, 5.5 1000 conscript soldiers and 11.4 1000 reserve soldiers, as well as 21.5 1000 Territorial Defence soldiers. The armored forces include 110 Stridsvagn 122 tanks. It is simply a modernized German Leopard 2A5 tank. Thanks to its production license, it was decided to further strengthen many of the tank's structural elements and to usage Swedish production optical instruments. Swedes besides have 8 Stridsvagn 121 tanks, which are an upgraded version of the older Leopard 2A4 model [6]. Due to its geographical location, the Kingdom has chosen to make over the years mainly the Navy and aviation, making them the main assets of the Swedish armed forces. They have an air fleet of 94 JAS-39 C/D Gripen fighters. The acquisition of an upgraded version of 60 fresh fighters of this maker was besides contracted.

One of the most crucial aspects of specified developed air force is the compatibility of fighters with anti-shipper missiles and air-to-air. The early informing aircraft SAAB 340 AEW of Swedish production besides make an crucial contribution to the safety of the North Atlantic Alliance. Radars in these machines can detect maneuvering missiles and drones from a distance of respective 100 kilometres [7]. The effectiveness of these aircraft led Poland to acquisition 2 copies, which will importantly strengthen the field of imagination of the Polish army [8]. The equipment, size and efficiency of the Swedish air force makes the Russian Baltic fleet face considerable difficulties in possible offensive activities in the Baltic. The contribution of Swedish fighters greatly improves the allied, collective defence of airspace and the Baltic sea basin.

Another crucial aspect of safety in the Baltic is the Kingdom Navy. The main strength of the fleet is 7 corvettes, of which 5 are Visby-type ships, whose peculiar advantage is masking utilizing stealth technology severely limiting radar detection. This fleet is equipped with anti-ship missiles and capable of damaging submarines [9]. Its main disadvantage is the deficiency of anti-aircraft defense. On the another hand, a contract was signed with Britain to equip the Corvette with an on-board Sea Captor anti-aircraft system. Fleet modernisation is expected to begin at the end of 2025 [10]. Sweden after Germany ranks second in the Baltic in terms of the size of submarines. Since 2028, these forces are expected to number 5 vessels, which will importantly strengthen the NATO's possible for combat in the Baltic Sea region [11]. The Stockholm Navy besides specializes in neutralizing mines and patrolling coast and open sea.

Swedish contributions to the Alliance's collective defence

The accession of Sweden to the North Atlantic Alliance gives large benefit to NATO states in controlling safety in the Baltic. An crucial strategical point is the island of Gotland, due to its central position at sea. In the early 21st century, the island was practically demilitarized due to the current trend of cutting defence spending. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the first aggression of the Russian Federation to Ukraine, permanent military presence there has been gradually restored, due to many Russian provocations and exercises simulating landings and taking over the island. The Swedes plan to re-militarize and fortify Gotland [12]. The construction of airports and logistics infrastructure is expected to supply ammunition storage, permanent military presence and increase self-sufficiency. The Swedish goal is besides to importantly increase anti-aircraft and anti-shipping capabilities by bringing Patriot batteries and RBS-15 missiles to Gotland [13]. The restoration of the military nature of the island creates a crucial obstacle for the Russian Baltic fleet to carry out possible provocations, and in the event of an attack, military presence in Gotland even prevents Russian ships from leaving the open sea.

Swedish anti-aircraft defence besides covers allied states, in peculiar the Baltic States, Poland and Finland [14]. It will strengthen the collective Natan defence in this region and increase the possible to deter the Russian Federation. This will make unfavourable calculations in the context of possible aggression against NATO and reduce the hazard of a possible conflict. In addition to Gotland, the Alan Islands and Bornholm are besides the defence lines for Sweden. The Navy of the Kingdom of Sweden, Denmark and Finland are cooperating to guarantee the control and safety of these islands [15♪[16]. The most crucial aspect in this case is the defence against a hybrid attack aimed at critical infrastructure, and in peculiar energy infrastructure, e.g. wind farms in the Baltic Sea or offshore cables transporting electricity between the States of the Alliance or gas pipelines crucial for energy security, e.g. Baltic tube (providing Poland over 50% of gas request per year) [17]. There is simply a advanced probability of specified threats. In October 2023, the Balticconnector gas pipeline was damaged, which is liable for the transport of gas between Finland and Estonia. The incidental has not been explained, while Baltic politicians and generals fishy the sabotage of Russia [18].

Another crucial aspect of Swedish activity in NATO is the Arctic. The Kingdom belongs to the permanent members of the Arctic Council and, together with the remainder of the Nordic countries, sees this area as strategically important. He besides collaborates in developing military cooperation plans in this area, conducting Nordic consequence exercises [19].

The maneuvers are to prepare the Alliance's troops to operate in Arctic conditions, with peculiar emphasis on the Navy. The smooth operation in the Arctic from the Natovian point of view is important, as the Russian Federation has far-reaching plans for it to build military bases, exploit natural materials and grow port infrastructure. Moscow would besides like to make crucial profits from the possible, thanks to the always smaller ice cover of the northern sea trail, which provides a one-third shorter way than the Suez Canal to bring goods from China to Europe. This would change global supply chains. The position of northern territories in the context of belonging to a country with a advanced probability will be questioned by Russia in order to supply itself with the top possible mining and economical capacity. Therefore, Sweden and another Nordic countries, in addition to the Baltic Sea, besides see the Arctic as a theatre of possible military activities.

Conclusion

The effort to change safety architecture in Europe by the Russian Federation by triggering a full-scale war in Ukraine and exhibiting further expansionist ambitions has resulted in neutrality or unalignment in the close vicinity of Russia no longer being profitable and have become a threat to national security. The Kremlin's decision to grow the western military district, which is militarily aimed straight at the Baltic Sea area, as well as many simulations and exercises of the attack on the islands of Gotland, the Åland Islands or Bornholm, has made the Swedish public decide to join NATO and break 200 years of neutrality.

Neighboring from the east Finland is the main strategical partner for the Swedes under defence plans. The specificity of the Swedish army due to tiny land troops is due to the fact that Sweden does not have a direct border with the Russian Federation. The Kingdom does not see itself as a front state, but sees the function of providing strategical depth for the defending Finland and the Baltic States in a possible conflict with the Russian Federation.

The presence of Swedes in the Alliance primarily increases the safety of the Baltics in the event of possible aggression against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Sweden is able to supply crucial aviation and exploratory support. The Kingdom territory would besides service as a logistical hub through which military aid to the Baltic countries would be transported. The cooperation of the Navy of Sweden, Finland and Denmark makes the Russian Baltic fleet in the event of a conflict hard to sail out of ports to the full sea and would most likely not be able to supply maritime support to the royal circuit. This is due to the fact that Denmark controls the Skagerrak and Kattegat straits, allowing it to enter the Baltic. Swedes and allies in the event of a conflict may besides block the Gulf of Finland by obstructing the Russians' sea connection to St. Petersburg.

Sweden's presence in the Alliance importantly strengthens the protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The Swedish fleet, thanks to patrol vessels and reconnaissance forces, can have an effective impact on the defence of specified objects as wind farms, power cables or pipelines.

Russia's expanding activity in the Arctic area is prompting Swedes and allies from the Nordic countries to make common military solutions in the area, which is intended to contribute to more effective NATO activities in the far north. Natowski's possible for deterrence by joining the Alliance of Sweden is expanding significantly, and it translates positively into the collective defence issue.

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