May has provided us with 2 meetings at the highest level in Beijing. China first visited Donald Trump and then Vladimir Putin. What has been discussed and what lessons can be learned from these events, you will find out in this text. In addition, you will have an interesting discussion between the Vatican and the founder of Palantir, Peter Thiel, the discovery of powerful deposits of crucial metallic in the US, as well as the fact about the causes of the COVID-19 pandemic. Welcome to the reading!
New planet Order: What have Donald Trump and Xi Jinping truly established?
A gathering was held on 13-15 May which was considered crucial for the global rivalry of powers. For the first time since 2017, in China Donald Trump appeared to meet China's leader Xi Jinping. The impression could besides be made by the composition of the American delegation: Elon Musk, Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Tim Cook (Apple), Larry Fink (BlackRock) and another key representatives of the planet of technology and finance.
Source: Fox.News
So how did this gathering go? alternatively of the expected tough attitude and confrontational kind from which he is known, Donald Trump turned out to be exceptionally courteous and presented a amazingly agreeable tone, calling Xi a "great leader". The talks afraid trade, Taiwan, ]]>Iran and the Strait of Armenian]]>, and access to uncommon earth metals. Trade and Investment Councils have been established to service as mechanisms for managing common economical relations. In addition, China undertook:
- purchase US agricultural products worth US$17 billion a year,
- open the marketplace for beef and poultry from the USA,
- agree to acquisition the 200 Boeing aircraft.
- suspend export restrictions on uncommon earth metals per year.
Beijing besides expressed readiness to acquisition American oil. These are tangible effects, but not as spectacular as you might expect. So it is worth trying to answer the question, why could this summit be? Well, in my opinion, it could have been about symbolism and any subtle but crucial change in bilateral relations.
The summit agreed to build a strategical stableness relation between the 2 countries in the following years. This general message rather well explains Xi Jinping's words, who asked an crucial question:
Can China and the United States escape the alleged Tukidides trap and make a fresh paradigm of the relations of the large powers?
Tukidides' trap lies in the imminent outbreak of war between the erstwhile hegemon and his possible successor. Xi stressed at the same time that mismanagement of Taiwan could lead to very serious consequences, thus setting an impossible red line for both countries. Trump seems to accept this position quo as he symbolically suspended 1 of the largest military aid packages for Taiwan in fresh years before the summit. Given Trump's amazingly mild attitude and what Xi said, it can be concluded that both countries are aware that a possible open conflict is not worth any of them. This is simply a conclusion that has not been so apparent in fresh years.
A broad representation of the US at this visit could so be a symbolic expression of the warming of common relations, as well as a demonstration of the strength of American business (which would prompt China to open its marketplace more broadly). Does that mean no more competition? Not at all. Washington and Beijing will so fight for the largest part of the global economy cake for themselves. The conclusions of this summit could be illustrated as follows: We do not enter into an open armed conflict, but we compete for the best influence for each another in a new, bipolar planet order.
Putin at the mercy of Beijing? Conversation fiasco on the Siberia Power Gas Pipeline 2
Literally respective days after the gathering of the Presidents of the United States and China, another crucial summit occurred. Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing this time. Timing a visit wasn't random. Beijing thus built a symbolic narrative, according to which it dictates the rhythm and conditions of key encounters with the most crucial people in the world.
What was Putin’s intention? Russia, cut off in many directions from gas outlets, needs to redirect as many exports as possible towards Asia, especially China. For this purpose, a powerful plan of a fresh gas pipeline called the Power of Siberia 2 was developed.
Source: CNBC
Negotiations have been going on for respective years, but the Russians hoped to enter into a favourable agreement on this issue, knowing that marketplace distortions (e.g. caused by the war in Iran) should prompt a desire to safe supply. However, China could not become more dependent on Russia. The leaders didn't talk publically about the fresh gas pipeline. The spokesperson for the Kremlin Dimitrij Pieskov tried to build a communicative of success, saying that "generally the assumptions are ready" and "some details stay to be worked out". At the same time, the Chinese side did not mention a gas pipeline or a word and did not confirm these reports. The key subject for Putin is inactive at a dead end, but more than 40 smaller contracts have been signed. Among them we can mention:
- Agreement on the construction of a second cross-border railway line, crucial for expanding rail transport capacity and trade between countries.
- Memorandum on technological and method cooperation in controlled atomic fusion.
- A memorandum on sustainable trade in key industrial products to facilitate trade under sanctions and advance transactions in national currencies.
- Deeper partnership in the atomic sector (including human resources training and peaceful usage of atomic energy), strategical for both parties.
Nevertheless, it seems that mainly through China's tough attitude towards the fresh pipeline, Russia's position boils down to the function of a supplier of natural materials alternatively than an equal partner. Moscow, which has switched its economy to war tracks, may feel increasingly cornered and as a consequence of economical pressures make more risky decisions, as it is said it is best to run forward. It is worse that a divided Europe could possibly lead to this medium-term escape.
No more dependence on China? America discovered giant lithium deposits
The American Geological Service (USGS) published a study that could confuse a lot in the US and China geopolitical gameplay. It turns out that there are 2.3 million tons of lithium oxide in the Appalachs. To better realize the meaning of this information, it is adequate to say that specified a quantity will cover the request of the States for this uncommon metallic for about 328 years. So far only 1 tiny mine has been active in the country, and more than 50% of lithium is imported from Chile, Argentina and Australia, and the natural material itself goes to China for refining anyway. So we're talking about a possibly powerful step forward.
Source: USGS
This study besides gives hope of independency from China in terms of refining, as the mediate State mostly dominated the area, liable for the production of more than 60% of the processed lithium. This is an crucial component of the force on another countries, including the US. In fresh years the mediate State has repeatedly introduced export controls on, among others, lithium processing technology or production of LFP cathodes (which straight contain processed lithium) and high-energy lithium-ion batteries. As a result, Beijing has a real impact on the cost, availability and transportation dates of battery components worldwide.
At first glance, it would seem that the revelations from the Appalachians are a real breakthrough, but erstwhile you dig into the details, the situation becomes more complicated, although inactive beneficial to the United States.
The first problem is the kind of open deposits. These are alleged pegmatites, or hard rocks, from which the extraction and processing of lithium is much more costly and more complicated than in the case of brine. However, importantly, the extraction is economically viable. The top hope lies in the Kings Mountain area, where companies like Albemarle and Piedmont Lithium are already developing their projects. However, time remains the biggest challenge. Planting mines and launching plants for refining and processing lithium is simply a process to be counted in terms of at least 10-15 years. The importance of this discovery remains average in the short term.
So where can we look for real benefits for the United States? Above all, we request to adopt a more long-term approach in the context of competition with China. She won't end in 2 or 3 years. The fresh order will appear for decades to come, and in specified a time horizon, the discovery of specified powerful deposits of lithium is already important. This is simply a milestone that completely alters the imagination of the safety of the U.S. natural material in the context of lithium and gives real hope of weakening the Chinese lion, for example, in their area of control over battery production. This is besides a affirmative signal for US companies in the industry.
Given the U.S. determination on this issue, expressed by ]]>Project Vault, about which Konrad Pietruszka wrote more]]>, 1 should anticipate that the discovery in the Appalachians will not stay just a sparking curiosity.
Continue reading: ]]>Independent Trader - Investing in Gold]]>
]]>How do you see if the gold is real?]]>
Author: ]]>Paul Cream]]>
