The results of the global hunt for Russian oil do not knock people to their knees. Russia increased its oil sales, made tremendous profits and in the course of the year completely changed its outlets. Now it repairs the harm caused by sanctions and returns to control the planet market.
In the article “How Russian oil got distant with its chase” (How Russian oil got distant with its pursuit | Myśl Polska (myślpolska.info) I described how Russian oil companies dealt with the problems and traps which the West had set for them. present it is worth summing up the results of this clash. due to the fact that the West thinks Russia has suffered an oil defeat. This is what the global Energy Agency is announcing, but, of course, it has forced Europe to sanction energy against Russia, and it is hard for it to brag about failure now.
Because indeed – Russian oil came out victorious from this clash. Although the blows were strong – taking distant the European market, looting assets, chasing oil around the planet with a "price ceiling". The result, taking distant Moscow's large money, but inactive Russian oil is doing great, bringing immense profits and gaining fresh markets, and present it starts playing to reduce losses, that is, lowering the downflows that the Western force forced.
Money to start with. Last year he did not suffocate Russia financially, he did not take her basic origin of income. On the contrary, exports increased by 7% in 2022 and revenues increased by 43%, bringing $384 billion (that is 2/3 of Polish GDP).
Of course, you could gain more, due to the fact that for everything you had to pay French – from cheaper by 30 USD of oil, to much higher charges for freight or insurance. But the Russians clenched their teeth, survived the worst of times. Exports of Russian oil after the imposition of sanctions by the EU fell powerfully in the supply of pipelines which have died (such as “Friendship” by Poland) or importantly reduced transmission (Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic). However, exports by sea grew like yeast. Oil flowed alternatively of Europe – to India and China, which now buy 80% of Russian exports (China 2.3 million and India 2.2 million b/d in April). In both countries, Russia ranks first among suppliers. Expands sales to Africa, South America (especially fuel), establishes a strategical energy alliance with Pakistan.
In May ’23 Russian oil exports reached a historical record, which yet led to the fact that the French that the Russians were forced to pay had fallen down. Data from India and China spoke of a sharp decline in the drains. From the beginning, they were not in fact as advanced as the agencies announced, their quotations disagreed with the importers' statistics. However, not only Western traders or importers, but besides Russian tycoons, have earned it. This allowed taxes to be charged from global quotations. If you negotiated a better price for Russian oil than Western agencies indicated... the profit was huge. besides Russian business, for an awesome logistics return to the east gained very measurable benefits. It was publically announced by Rosnieft, who made a large profit on the Siberian grade of ESPO oil exported to Asia, as the discount on it was tiny and taxes were calculated from the agency's Urals quotations. But the Kremlin tolerated this, as highly advanced profits greatly motivated Russian business to look for fresh markets, change directions of exports and cope with obstacles multiplied by the West.
For a year, until the summertime of 2023 mining grew, and more interestingly, respective percent of the number of wells increased, leading to the beginning of fresh deposits. Last year, investments in the natural materials manufacture increased by respective twelve percent – both in the oil and coal industries.
Generally, Russia lost a lot by sanctions, not being paid for oil, coal, as much as others. But they were inactive sensational prices, due to the fact that in 2022 speculation was very advanced prices, income, especially from oil, was powerful. Suffice it to say that Russia in this very sanctioned year of ’22 had a stunning sensational balance of exchange: Russia received $227 billion net – the most in its history.
Of course, Russian income has fallen importantly this year, almost by half. But it's worth reminding you that in 2019 and 2020 and 2021... the gross was lower than today. About oil. The real problem is natural gas, but, well, erstwhile the pipelines explode...
Andrzej Szczęsniak
Think Poland, No. 31-32 (30.07-6.08.2023)