It's a communicative of how president Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelenski and president Vladimir Putin's fresh calculations proved unfulfilled faster than expected.

This is simply a short communicative — Trump is the shortest of the three.

Trump and Zelenski believed that the war they, their allies, media and voters – their predecessors, dating back a 100 years, led against Russia – was successful slowly, at a price they could pay over time, but Putin did not. In time, as they calculate, their war will break Putin in the Kremlin and drive Russia into chaos, which will benefit the Russians.

It is simply a strategy of overthrow from within, driven by outside pressure, which was successful in just 5 years with Mikhail Gorbachev, and then in 10 years with Boris Jelcine. It is besides the same Anglo-American and German strategy that failed the first time with Vladimir Lenin and the second with Joseph Stalin.

Based on the latest Russian opinion poll – measured through the Levad Center in Moscow a week after Russian voters entered the parliamentary election – this calculation is not entirely wrong. "In September... the level of support for Russian armed forces remains high; 7 out of 10 respondents support Russian armed forces in Ukraine. At the same time, 2 thirds of respondents are in favour of moving to peace negotiations; only one-quarter of them are in favour of continuing the war. Most respondents would support Vladimir Putin's decision if he decided "just now, this week", to end the armed conflict with Ukraine. However, if ending the conflict would require returning the annexed territories, only a 3rd of respondents would support specified a decision."

When the Leftan pollers divided their election effort into those who would support Putin’s unconditional ending of the war — they would accept the ceasefire and return the annexed territories — and those who opposed specified conditions and opposed specified an agreement, the consequence was the division between men and women, the more educated and residents of large cities and provinces, and those who trust on alternate media on news alternatively than mainstream media.

It is clear that Allied and Ukrainian drone and rocket attacks in the Russian backdrop are targeted at those young, urban, middle-income Russians who already least support the continuation of the war. This was the political strategy of the game that Trump and his officials shared with NATO and with the Kiev regime.

"Mr. Zelenski must do 1 thing," tried explain this Trump strategy on the Irish golf course on 13 September. "He must halt turning off diesel in Russia. Let it go to targets, but not on diesel, due to the fact that it causes diesel shortages. This is not the work of the mediate East, but what is happening to Russia and Ukraine. So, uh, we talked about this with Mr. Zelensky. There are many another targets. Don't hit diesel, due to the fact that it hurts, it hurts the world. We don't want him hitting diesel. He has to halt turning off diesel in Russia. Let it go to targets, but not on diesel, due to the fact that it causes diesel shortages."

Trump's calculation was that in this way he could turn to American voters to neutralize the blame they blamed him for inflation of fuel prices, and thus reverse the fall of Republican organization votes before the legislature elections on November 3. He asked Zelenski for help; he called him master.

This prompted Putin to calculate that he could drive a wedge between them, offering Trump diesel, who wanted to turn it into voices. Within 5 weeks of September 13, that's how the cards played out. but that the diesel dealers and voters in the US were not convinced: the marker price for the diesel price in the fresh York port fell from the summit in mid-September; again it got up; it fell again; and now it is higher than it was in consequence to Putin's bid to start Russian diesel transport in exchange for Trump's suspension of sanctions on these shipments and Trade Tankers.

Not a drop of Russian diesel landed in an American port. Zelenski continues to attack refineries and terminals in Rostów, Riazania and Petersburg as targets. Trump gave up this gentleman.

"Zelenski," tweeted October 18, "uses diesel refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks seriously harm planet diesel markets, including in the United States. Farmers, farmers and businesses of all kinds endure from this, but Russia nevertheless sends the planet millions of barrels of diesel at a low price. Zelenski does not care about it, and frankly, with all the money that Europe is celebrated for giving him, and which Corrupt Joe Biden gave him in the past, he does not want to end this war and most likely never did. 2 years ago, he could have made a better deal than this. His country is in ruins, a large part of his land has been lost, oceans and seas have disappeared, and the population of men is low, injured and/or dead."

Putin calculates that thanks to Trump he can end the war on the Ukrainian battlefield for now; gain the time requested by the General Staff to prepare for the wars that the U.S. alliance has led on another fronts; supply the conditions that Russian voters will accept; and guarantee themselves unchangeable succession and oligarchs on which Putin relied from the very beginning. Trump's corruption was his chance, and he calculated he didn't have much time to usage it.

"In this situation, Trump's bribery is the only card Putin has," says Moscow's origin capable of knowing – "— and for a minute erstwhile you can see for yourself, it brings results."

"There's no deal with Trump about diesel that's worth it. That's not the point. This non-understanding is not a goal at all. It is about Trump acting in a way that will bring financial benefits and any benefits in disagreement in NATO's Russian side. That's all it is and works. There is no uncertainty that bribes have already been paid. Whether it's for Trump household weddings, gifts, cryptocurrency business – whatever you imagine, everything has been paid for. Russian oligarchs and Kremlin are eager to play these games to free their own money and take advantage on the battlefield."

"Trump will not give war and conditions to the Russians, but his actions will help. Clearly, Europeans are beginning to accept that they cannot give more money and cannot act alone without the US. That is why Trump's statements aid discourage weaker Europeans and increase force on stronger ones. It all helps. Corrupt Trump helps Russians."

"In this situation, further handing out bribes and bribes to his children reaches goal."

"The question for us is how many compromises Putin will take; I believe he will do a few, knowing perfectly well that the phase of active war does not bring all the expected benefits; and this passive, long-term war with Europe requires the preparation and release of the economy from sanctions. It besides publically acknowledges that it did not anticipate attacks on data centres; refineries; and another civilian targets. This means that there was nothing like the silent agreement Putin believed in—only his anticipation that the Americans, the British, the Germans and the French would not go so far as to be discouraged by the threats he and [the minister of abroad affairs Sergey] Lavrov raised. His expectations for Trump and the Americans proved, of course, wrong. After the failed Libyans, Syrians, Iranians, Cubans and Venezuelans, Putin adheres to expectations that his enemies respect as wrong. Therefore, they are inactive convinced that if they proceed the war force for another 2 years, they will win against Putin, as they had it against Gorbachev and Yeltsin. They are convinced Putin has no Stalinist cards to play."

Last weekend, erstwhile Trump presented a justification for the agreement on Russian diesel in exchange for votes, Putin announced to a group of front commanders his justification for concessions that he seemingly agreed with Trump.

October 16: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/81009

"Slightly more than 10 percent of the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic and 16.5 percent of the Zaporo region stay under the control of the Kiev regime. The Luhansk People's Republic is completely under our control. I would besides like to remind you that after the invasion of the Ukraine Armed Forces into the Russian Kursa region, the Russian Armed Forces were tasked not only to expel the enemy from our territory, but besides to establish a safety region in neighboring Ukraine. This task shall be carried out successfully. Our nonsubjective is to guarantee the absolute safety of Russia's border regions for the future, and we do not intend to make this a subject of possible peace negotiations with Ukraine."

"I would like to point out that in consequence to the raids by the Kiev authorities on our industrial plants and fuel and energy infrastructure, the Russian Armed Forces proceed to carry out attacks on Ukrainian military-industrial complex companies and infrastructure... Force Group commanders must proceed to carry out their tasks in accordance with the peculiar Military Operations Plan. And of course we inactive gotta carry out mass and many impacts on the military-industrial complex and centres The enemy's logistics."

Trump tweeted to American voters. Zelenski's consequence expressed the belief that Trump's run was futile, and after the vote was calculated on November 3, Trump would lose control of both the legislature and the U.S. home of Representatives for the majority of the Democratic Party, which would proceed the war on old terms and escalate US and NATO pressures until Putin was broken.

Levad's poll among Russian voters was conducted on 23–30 September and published 6 October. This confirms the steady increase in voter support for Putin in negotiations to end the current fighting; and a parallel decline in assurance that military escalation can accomplish the objectives of peculiar Military Operations.

Source: https://www.levada.ru/2026/10/06/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-sentyabre-2026-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-usloviyam-zaversheniya-konflikta/print/

The polls on the support and disapproval of Russian voters against the terms of the war agreement are exceptional. It is well understood by American, British and NATO intelligence agencies and political leaders. It is equally well understood in the Russian safety Council; it is ignored by Russian state media and their echoes in pro-Russian podcasts.

According to Levada's report, "thanks to the random numbers generator, survey participants were divided into 2 equal groups, each of which was to answer 1 of 2 questions. In the first case, respondents were asked if they would support the President's decision to immediately end the armed conflict without conditions. In the second case, defendants were besides asked if they would support the decision, but if fresh territories were returned."

Source: https://www.levada.ru/2026/10/06/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-sentyabre-2026-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-usloviyam-zaversheniya-konflikta/print/

"Most, 81% of respondents would support Putin's decision if 'this week' decided to end the armed conflict with Ukraine. The participation of these supporters of cessation of war with the President's approval has been slow expanding since May 2023 – by 19 percent points. The percent of opponents of this decision is decreasing by 21 percent points over the same period; it is now 12%. At the same time, if Putin had decided to end the conflict "this week", but subject to the return of the annexed territories, his decision would have gained the support of a noticeablely smaller number of Russians – 35%. However, over the last year and a half, this increase has increased by 7 percent points. 51% of those who would not support the President's decision to end the armed conflict and return the fresh territories have been decreasing by 13 percent points since February 2025; they have now reached the lowest level recorded over 3 years polls."

The division of Russian voters by targeting drones and rockets and directing Putin against Stavce – a coalition of military and civilian decision-makers – will be a U.S. and NATO mark erstwhile Trump's calculations run out of political power to keep them.

Presenting these calculations now as "Trump's masterful achievement"in separating the US from European allies and cutting off the Kiev government from the backing of war, weapons and intelligence is simply a sloppy thought: it is simply a forecast of wishful thinking, discredited by evidence from the past, but repeated in the future erstwhile there are rewards for unreasonable hopes.

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https://johnhelmer.net/slopaganda-in-war-is-when-you-cant-tell-the-difference-ween-hope-and-hype-and-you-are-blind-to-nope/

Translated by Google Translatorsource:https://stateofthenation.info/?p=84456