Symbolic alternatively of hard power. “The Volunteer Coalition” will not shake Trump

– present we are at a crossroads of past – said in an interview with the BBC, after gathering with European leaders, Prime Minister United KingdomKeir Starmer. He besides stressed that talks in London showed "European unity at an incredibly advanced level, invisible for a long time".

– We must learn from past mistakes, we cannot accept a weak agreement that Russia He'll break easily. Instead, all area must be supported by force said British politician. As he said, "Europe must do hard work here", each agreement must have the support of the United States and take Russia into account, albeit Kremlin He has no right to dictate the terms of peace.

"Volunteer Coalition" 2.0. Polish lack

The tangible proof of unity that Starmer said is to be an uprising So-called volunteer coalitions. This is simply a group of countries, headed by France and Britain, which will take on the main burden of providing safety guarantees Ukraine. It is likely that these countries will send their troops to Ukraine on a stabilisation mission erstwhile peace talks Kiev au Moscow It'll be over.

The phrase “coalition of the willing” did not accidentally fall out of Starmer's mouth. The most celebrated coalition of this kind was the 1 formed by the American president George W. Bushwhen in 2003 the United States asked its allies from Europe and NATO for support in armed intervention against Iraq. Bush managed to gather 31 states, although the group later expanded to 38.

In the present case, this will be much less, most likely only a fewer countries. Although Starmer did not give the lineup, France and Britain will be the 2 leading forces of the full venture and the only atomic powers on the Old Continent. Unofficial information suggests that the Baltic States will most likely join them and Finlandand participation is besides excluded Italy and Canada.

Everyone understands that it would be best to transfer these funds for defence purposes to Ukraine. However, there are concerns about the negative consequences of this step for the euro area and the banking system. (...) We request to focus on extending sanctions due to the fact that they truly work

The largest absentees of this coalition are Poland and Germany, i.e. the largest army of Europe and the strongest economy of the continent, and Spain. Poland, with Donald Tusk's mouth, already more than 2 weeks ago declared that it would not send its soldiers to Ukraine. Government in Germany Olaf Scholz He was in a akin position. Will Friedrich Merz's office share this position – time will tell. First the winner in the fresh CDU/CSU elections must form a fresh government. Spain considers, on the another hand, that declarations of participation in any peacekeeping mission prior to the actual improvement of the peace are unfounded.

London summit. 4 main conclusions

Discussing the most crucial findings of the weekend mini summit with journalists, Starmer focused especially on 4 points.

Firstly, it is crucial that European countries keep military aid for Ukraine, To keep the military's defence capabilities. At the same time, the Old Continent states intend to constantly increase their economical force on Russia to make it hard to rise funds to proceed fighting.

Secondly, negotiated peace must be fair and lasting, and this means that it must warrant Ukraine sovereignty and security. Ukraine must besides be present in all peace talks.

Thirdly, in the context of the signing of the peace agreement, European states are focusing on strengthening Ukraine's defence capabilities. The goal is to safe the future of this country so that it does not fall victim to future invasions.

Fourthly, the European countries will make the already mentioned "coal of the willing", which, after being signed by Ukraine and Russia, will warrant its adherence by sending stabilisation forces to Ukraine.

This was not 1 of the main findings of European leaders regarding the introduction of a monthly ceasefire in Ukraine. The solution was advocated by both France and the UK, but both countries did not agree on the details of a possible truce.

After the gathering of 17 European leaders and the Prime Minister of Canada, Ukraine knows that it has about $2 billion from the British export fund to use. This appropriation is intended to cover the acquisition of 5,000 LMM anti-aircraft missiles, which will produce reinforcement plants in Belfast. It is simply a fresh “additional” to the $2.8 billion military aid approved at the end of last year for Ukraine, which will be financed from interest on Russian funds “frozen” in European banks.

Serious gaps in the “coalition of willing” plan

However, the London Summit did not bring a breakthrough in any of the key issues concerning Ukraine's future.

We're at a crossroads today. (...) We must learn from the mistakes of the past, we cannot accept the weak agreement that Russia will easy break. Instead, all area must be supported by force

First of all, there was no decision allowing Ukraine to be transferred or utilized for the intent of attracting the already mentioned "frozen" Russian funds from European countries. This, according to various estimates, was 300-350 billion dollars, of which more than half (190 billion) was blocked by Belgian financial institutions.

However, there is no agreement in Europe or within NATO to transfer these funds to Ukraine or to finance military aid to Kiev. Reasons? The diplomatic spheres mention respective major “against” specified a decision. On the 1 hand, this would constitute a violation of global law, namely the West's reaching for Kremlin methods. On the another hand, it would weaken Ukraine's negotiating position in peace talks, as Kiev would no longer be able to play the “frozen” asset card. Finally, the acquisition of Russian reserves would have a destructive effect on the European banking strategy and the euro area, undermining their credibility in the eyes of global investors, for there would be a precedent for the confiscation of something that is not formally owned by banks.

– Everyone understands that it would be best to transfer these funds for defence purposes of Ukraine. However, there are concerns about the negative consequences of specified a step for the euro area and the banking strategy – acknowledged Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk after a gathering in London. “We request to focus on extending sanctions due to the fact that they truly work,” he called for, referring to the June date erstwhile the blockade of the aforementioned $30050 billion Russian assets will expire.

After the London summit we besides did not learn how, erstwhile and in what amount European Union intends to increase the investment capacity of its countries in terms of safety and defence. During the Munich safety Conference, the president announced this step European CommissionUrsula von der LeyenBut we haven't met the specifics yet.

There were besides 2 another issues burning for Europe. To present at least the core of the strategy against the trade war that the EU is threatening Donald Trump. Nor did the European leaders say a word about whether and how they intend to respond to the warming relation of the American president with the Vladimir Putin.

Poland is moving out of time. The trump card slips out of hand

possibly at least any of these questions will be answered after an extraordinary summit scheduled for March 6 European Council attended by the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski. The EU leaders will then address topics specified as strengthening the defence capacity and capabilities of the EU's defence industry, providing further economical and military assistance to Ukraine, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, and Donald Trump's policy towards the Union.

president Zelenski's administration besides suggests the readiness to return to talks with the American side as regards the signing of a bilateral agreement on the exploitation of Ukrainian uncommon earth metallic deposits. The paper was to be signed during the visit of the Ukrainian leader in The White House On February 28, but a gathering with president Trump and Vice president J. D. Vance ended in an unprecedented brawl, after which Zelenski was asked out of the White House.

The next days will besides be a hard and crucial time for the Polish government and Polish diplomacy. Although Poland for 3 years has been 1 of the leading voices in discussions on the future of Ukraine and the threat from Russia, fresh weeks have shown that Warsaw The place of “old powers” is increasingly giving up specified as France, large Britain or even Italy.

The first 2 countries are leaders of the “voluntary coalition” and have a decisive voice in terms of safety guarantees for Ukraine. Italy and especially the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, they enjoy a very good relation with the fresh American administration, which is to be an asset of the EU in the close future during hard talks with Americans.

In turn Poland, although it is the largest army of Europe and spends the most on defence throughout NATO, declared that it would not send its troops to Ukraine for a stabilisation mission. There has been, and there is, specified an anticipation on the part of European partners. All the more so, Prime Minister Tusk has been playing hard with safety and armaments since taking over. It was expected to be Poland's golden ticket to the key European decision-makers. For now, it is more likely that this ticket will shortly expire, and Poland, despite intense earlier efforts, will be stuck in the second row of EU policy and will only look at key decision-makers. Especially due to the fact that the asset in the form of highly close relations with the Trump administration surely does not have the Polish government in hand.