Sławomir Mentzen unexpectedly loses support and his position in the presidential race is clearly weakening. The latest opinion24 poll for RMF FM shows that the second circular of elections is headed by Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki – a change that can shuffle the full campaign.
In the latest poll conducted by the Studio Opinion24 for RMF FM on 7-9 April 2025, Sławomir Mentzen, the leader of the Confederate, experiences a decline in support, after a long period of growth. As a consequence of these changes, the second circular of presidential elections, if they were to take place in the close future, would be entered by Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki. This situation represents a clear reversal of the erstwhile polling trend in which Mentzen was considered 1 of the favorites.
Electoral preferences of Poles
The Opinion24 poll points to a slight change in electoral preferences compared to erstwhile studies. Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate for the Civic Coalition, is inactive in the leading position, who received 31.5 percent of support. Although its score is minimally lower than in erstwhile polls (32%), it remains a leader among candidates.
Also in the case of Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, there is an increase – in the April survey he gained 20% of the support, which represents a tiny increase compared to March (19.5%). However, the biggest changes concern Sławomir Mentzen, who in erstwhile studies could number on about 19% of support, and now fell to 14.7 percent. Mentzen's support falls mostly among younger voters, which may be a origin for concern.
A fall in Mentzen's support among younger voters
Experts note that Sławomir Mentzen loses support, especially among the youngest voters. A period ago, among people aged 18-29, Mentzen enjoyed 46 percent support. In April, this support fell to 27%, a noticeable decrease. This phenomenon may propose the instability of political preferences among the younger part of the electorate.
In addition, the decline in support for Mentzen is besides seen among men, where his score decreased by 7%. Rafał Trzaskowski became the dominant candidate in this group, which received 28 percent of the support.
Party preference and candidate selection
In the context of organization preferences, the poll results show the stableness of the election of presidential candidates. Among the PiS voters, Karol Nawrocki is the dominant candidate, who gains 68% of support in this group. Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 87 percent of the vote, is the biggest support among supporters of the Civic Coalition. Trzaskowski can besides number on the support of any of the 3rd Way voters, where 19% declare voting for him.
Among the Confederate Mentzen voters, he remains the leader, although Grzegorz Braun gained 9% of support in this group.
Second circular of presidential elections – Trzaskowski vs Nawrocki
If Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki went to the second circular of the presidential election, according to the poll, election attendance would be 88.1 percent. In this rivalry, Trzaskowski would gain 48.2 percent support, and Nawrocki 39.8% advantage of Trzaskowski in relation to Nawrocki decreased from 16 percent points (pp) to about 8 pp, which shows that Nawrocki gains support. However, there is inactive a large group of indecisive voters (12%).
The support for Trzaskowski comes mainly from supporters of the Civic Coalition (97%) and the 3rd Road (85%). On the another hand, Nawrocki receives large support among the voters of the Law and Justice (91%) and the Confederation (71%).
Second circular of presidential elections – Trzaskowski vs Mentzen
If Rafał Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen entered the second round, election attendance would be 85.8%. In this case, Trzaskowski would have won 50.4% of the vote, and Mentzen would have won 38.7 percent. As in the erstwhile scenario, Trzaskowski would receive large support from the KO and 3rd Way voters, while Mentzen would number on support from Confederate supporters (92%) and the Law and Justice (82%).
In this competition, a large part of the voters of Karol Nawrocki from the first circular (89%) would pass their votes to Mentzen, and voters of Szymon Holownia (90%) would decide to vote for Trzaskowski.
Summary
The latest poll shows that Rafał Trzaskowski remains the leader in the race for presidency, but Karol Nawrocki is gaining popularity and Sławomir Mentzen loses support, especially among younger voters. Currently, in the case of the second circular of elections, Trzaskowski has a crucial advantage over his rivals, but there is inactive a large number of undecided voters.
