Like all week, the latest subjective compilation of top 10 information from Russia. And today, about the women on the tractors, the gap in the Russian vault, the blocked Chinese cards, the problems on the oil market.
In my opinion, 1 of the most pessimistic in the past of the Russian Federation present is worth reading to the end. November and December forecasts begin to meet.
Here we go!
Location 10 Problems with safe net access
In 2023 users of Windows 7 and 8.1 in Russia will have problems with net access and their security. Versions of these systems are installed on at least 20% of computers. By early 2023, Microsoft, Google, Mozilla, Opera stopped supporting modifications to Microsoft's operating system, making browsers susceptible to cyber attacks. The problem can of course be solved by installing the latest versions of Windows, but in the Russian Federation it is problematic.
WIn 2022 Microsoft closed the option of downloading the operating strategy by Russians . However, Windows downloads were opened in December, including 10 and 11. But you can't activate the strategy without a peculiar key, and in the Russian Federation, specified keys are not officially sold. In addition, any users do not know about this anticipation – Microsoft has not officially announced the resumption of Windows access from the Russian Federation, besides in the light of further sanctions, access can be terminated again.
Another option that will aid to avoid problems related to the termination of abroad browsers is the control to Russian "Yandex Browser".
Place 9 Union Pay ceases to operate abroad
Union Pay cards from Russian banks that have been covered by a fresh sanction package have ceased to operate abroad. Credit institutions urge paying cash to their holders abroad or returning to the country.
JBank “Primorye” has already reported the blocking of operations on its UnionPay payment strategy cards abroad. The bank’s press service informed about this. The difficulties with UnionPay abroad were besides reported by Zenit banks, Uralsib, MTS Bank, Bank Saint Petersburg. These banks are subject to US and UK sanctions, the Primorye bank – only under US sanctions.
Let us remind UnionPay is formally the world's largest Chinese paying organization. Its logo bears over 6 billion already issued payment cards.
Until now, UnionPay has seemed a safe alternate to travelling Russians. As of 24 February, the US included these banks on the alleged SDN list, which means blocking all assets located in the United States, stopping business in dollars, and the hazard of imposing secondary sanctions on partner companies.
It appears that the day is approaching erstwhile the Russians will not be able to usage any cards abroad but Russian Miru in respective friendly countries.
Place 8 The dollar rate
The dollar rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday, February 24, exceeded 76 rubles for the first time since 22 April 2022. This is in line with the forecasts we gave in the last accounts.
Now we are no longer asking whether the dollar will cost more than 80 rubles as we have predicted, the question is alternatively erstwhile it will happen. Oil marketplace data and information on the increasing budget gap indicate that this is most likely a substance of weeks.
The Russian stock exchange is besides approaching the lowest values at the start of the war. RTS dropped to 92 points.
Place 7 200% customs work on Russian aluminium
U.S. president Joe Biden has ordered since March to impose 200 percent duties on imports of aluminium products from Russia.
From 10 April 2023 – 200% work on imports of aluminium products if any quantity of primary aluminium utilized in the production of aluminium products is melted in Russia or aluminium products are cast in Russia.
Aluminium containers for compressed or liquefied gas, plates coated with aluminium zinc alloy, doors, windows and frames, aluminium structures or parts of structures which were created or cast in Russia, were subject to sanctions.
On February 24, the United States extended sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Department of Commerce strengthens the control of exports of "luxurious goods" and the industrial sector. The list of sanctions includes Russian banks, in peculiar MTS-Bank, Uralsib Bank, Lanta-Bank and Metallinvestbank.
Seat 6 Russian women on tractors
By the end of 2022, Russia began to deficiency both highly skilled and linear workers, due to the final reports of many companies. In 2023, to overcome the shortage of staff, companies began to employment more women frequently in professions where men were the majority.
The number of women applying for a mechanic's occupation increased by 85%, crane operator 73%, plasterer 72%, artist 62%. In the IT field, the number of women looking for a occupation increased by 36%, in construction by 46%, in the transport and logistics manufacture by 42%.
Place 5 10 EU sanction package adopted
The EU imposes sanctions on 96 companies producing asphalt and rubber.
The fresh EU sanctions prepared for the anniversary of the launch of the military operation include restrictions on 3 banks, as well as the work to study assets of persons and entities subject to sanctions.
About 10 package of sanctions you can perceive in podcast A package of sanctions for Russia G7 and the EU. - YouTube.
Poland has set six conditions for agreeing on the 10th package of anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union," said EU Ambassador Andrzej Sados. Among them are work on a fresh package of sanctions: towards Rosatom, as well as demanding restrictions on imports of diamonds and rubber.
What Poland requires:
- consideration of the question of "the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia";
- work on sanctions against Belarus (Warsaw expects to be adopted on Monday 27 February);
- work on atomic sanctions, we are talking about "fuel, sanctions against Rosatom and company management";
- restrictions on imports of Russian diamonds;
- establishing a mechanics for the European Commission to monitor and prepare reports on the diversification of imports of synthetic rubber from Russia by EU countries;
- work on imposing sanctions on subsequent “Russian propagandaists”, Warsaw has prepared a list of over 150 names.
Place 4 Industrial production
In January 2023, industrial production in the Russian Federation decreased by 2.4% annually and by 0.6% compared to December 2022, stated Rosstat.
Despite the immense budget support and advanced levels of optimism from companies, the sector's production continues to decline strongly. The exception is industries that are someway related to the military industry.
The decline in industrial production by 2.4% annually in January 2023 in the context of enlarged industrial sectors was indeed ubiquitous: mining decreased by 3.1%, processing – by 2.3%, water supply and sanitation industries, waste disposal and contamination elimination – by 7.5%. The largest decrease was recorded in the production of motor vehicles (54.6%), machinery and equipment (22%) and wood (22.1%).
Among the manufacturing industries, the increase in production showed production of another vehicles (27.4% – war production), food (4.4%), beverages (7.1%), clothing (5.5%), computers and peripherals, optical and electronic products (5.5%, impact of war production) and electrical equipment (0.7%).
Place 3 The increasingly hard situation of companies leaving Russia
Yesterday, we talked a lot about sanctions during Live and the impact on Russians' lives. What life in Russia looks like a year after the invasion
Today we will address another aspect from Western companies and the process of leaving Russia.
Business in Russia is increasingly expensive. Equally costly could be to leave Russia completely in 2023. Let us remind abroad companies from last year that free sale of assets in Russia is prohibited without the approval of a peculiar government commission. And the committee will approve the transaction only on favourable terms for the country (and for members of the XD committee).
Firstly, specified a transaction should be discounted. A abroad company must sale assets to a fresh Russian owner with a discount of at least 50%. First, the marketplace valuation of the asset is given and then the discount selling price is approved.
Secondly, specified a abroad company must make a one-off payment to the budget from the money received for the sale of Russian assets. According to various estimates, this payment must scope a minimum of 10% of the sales amount.
If the company is prepared to incur large financial costs, the committee will approve this transaction. Here the question arises: what is more costly to foreigners? large discount or budget deposit? Discount can lead to losses and payment can origin problems in the jurisdictions of home abroad companies.
Additionally, decisions by abroad management companies in Russia may not be taken into account. In consequence to sanctions, legal persons in Russia may disregard the views of abroad board members and shareholders erstwhile deciding on management and not take into account their votes at the shareholders' meeting.
There is simply a situation in which many companies stay imprisoned in Russia without the anticipation of selling their assets. This will lead to absurd situations in 2023. Many companies will act only in explanation limiting production and activity, a large part will make decisions without the approval of their own office or acting to harm the owners. The belief of the government that decrees can form the economy has a long tradition in Russia.
Place 2 EU loses leadership position in supporting Russian regime
Imports of Russian fossil fuels into the European Union have been steadily decreasing since the end of March 2022, by more than half in monetary values compared to pre-invasion levels. In February China will somewhat surpass the EU in importing Russian fossil fuels.
0.8 million tonnes of Urals oil from Russian ports on 1-15 February goes to China compared to about 0.4 million tonnes of oil during the same period of January, according to traders and Refinitiv Eikon data.
Urals' oil supply to China is expanding as freight rates are weakening and Brent-Dubai's spread narrows, making Brent-bound Urals oil more competitive compared to Dubai-related species in Asian markets.
Deliveries to India will fall by 0.4 million tonnes in February. About 1.5 million tons of Urals oil in the first half of February goes to Indian ports. In the first half of January India received about 1.9 million tons of Urals marine oil, according to Refinitiv Eikon.
As we can see at this moment, we have volume stabilizations in the Asian marketplace and flows affect the 2 largest customers.
Let's remember China and India buy with large rebates due to western sanctions on Russian oil, and late embargoes and price limits.
Apart from the low price, oil transport is becoming an expanding problem from here, most likely returning ideas of another volume reduction. According to fresh Russian sources, Russia plans to reduce oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March compared to February, expanding already announced production cuts(500 000 b/d) to rise oil prices.
In addition, Moscow is inactive struggling to redirect exports of refined products. Russian products will should be sold with immense discounts so that they can compete with Indian, Chinese and Turkish refineries, where production takes place from Russian oil.
Seat 1 The disaster of the Russian budget continues at its best
We've got the Russian cash registry from February 20. According to the operational data of the single budget strategy portal, budget expenditure increased from the beginning of the year to 20 February and from the beginning of the year amounted to 5.1 trillion rubles ($67 billion), while gross amounted to only 1.3 trillion ($17 billion).
The difference was so about 3.8 trillion rubles ($50 billion) and this is simply a historical maximum. This is much more than the planned deficit size per year, or 2.8 trillion rubles ($37 billion).
Thus, the Russian regular spending is 100 billion rubles (1.31 billion USD). . Let us remind that according to the draft budget bill throughout the year Russia should spend 29 trillion rubles (US$381 billion) which means that they should not spend more than US$1.04 billion a day per day and spending. And you should remember that any of the expenses are shifted to later and are frequently booked later.
Government accounts deficiency chronic money and deficit rapidly increases. Knowing this data, the moves of power expanding taxes for oil companies and ordering compulsory (voluntary) charges for Russian corporations are more understandable.
However, both increased taxes and issued bonds cover a increasing budget gap in just part. If the government does not scope for more decisive solutions, the situation can be critical.
Counting and growth in the natural material marketplace can prove to be a vain hope and lead to uncontrolled inflation and devaluation of the ruble.
Note that this is cash and the Ministry of Finance frequently provides accrual data and, in fact, its estimates to the public.
It is crucial to anticipate that the Ministry will again want to take into account the gross for February that will affect the accounts in March and possibly give its detached data simultaneously prohibiting another publications.
I repeat that peace negotiations are the only salvation for the Russians, but given the renaissance of the current regime, this option is inactive out of the question.
If you have endured to the end a hot request to leave your heart to know how many people read me. Comments welcome, as well as cultural polemics. If you like the combination delight put coffee Creamy or me.
Please don't forget to pass on this list as a quote with your own comment. This message is for you.
