As all week I invitation you to the latest subjective list of top 10 information from Russia. And in today's highly strong compilation of super good information about the Russian economy. The Russian budget notes the profitite, inflation falls 3 times a month, the Russian oil on the Moscow stock exchange the most costly since the beginning of the year. Euro and Yuan have besides been the most costly in a year, trading with China beat fresh records. Even the incidence of infectious and venereal diseases increases in Russia.
Here we go!
Place 10 Russia leader in artificial intelligence area
According to the government's press service, the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) into the Russian economy is about 20% (one more time that what???) , by 2024 it is planned to rise this number to at least 50%. This was stated by Prime Minister Mikhail Miszustin.
Miszustin recalled that in order to make the artificial intelligence sphere in the country, a national task “Artificial Intelligence” is being implemented. Within this framework, the authorities grant grants to tiny and medium-sized enterprises. Between 2021 and 1922, the government thus allocated 5 billion rubles ($60 million) to 650 AI projects.
In addition, training is being conducted for industry. In the fall of 2022, the National improvement Centre AI began its work. According to government plans from 2021 to 2024, 28 billion rubles (340 million USD) will be allocated to the improvement of the AI sphere .
So OpenAi, Google, Microsoft, and another American companies are overpaying, just come to Russia for study. Prime Minister Mistustin is proposing that he hire artificial intelligence to compose press releases. Can't be any worse and funny.
Place 9 Japan gives up Russian coal
In 2022 Japan imported about 6.5 million tonnes of coal from Russia, or 45% little than a year earlier. At the same time, the country increased deliveries from Indonesia, Canada and South Africa.
In fiscal year 2021 (from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022) Russia was the second largest coal supplier to Japan after Australia.
From April 2022 to February 2023. Japan brought about 6.5 million tonnes of coal from Russia, which is 45 percent little than a year earlier. In February of that year, according to the Ministry of Energy, imports amounted to 230 1000 tonnes, or 73% little than in the same period last year. Russian coal accounted for 2% of full imports, compared with 9% of the erstwhile year.
At the same time, in 2022 the supply of coal from Indonesia increased by 28%, from Canada twice, and from South Africa by about six times.
Place 8 planet Bank forecasts again
The planet Bank improved Russia's GDP forecast in 2023. If the bank had previously predicted a GDP decline of 3.3%, now it is only 0.2%, according to an organisation report.
Nevertheless, the planet Bank inactive believes that sanctions have a serious negative impact on the country's economy. "The medium-term prospects for growth of the Russian economy are limited, as the country's access to resources and technologies to increase productivity is limited," says the report. According to the planet Bank, due to the fresh restrictions imposed on the Russian oil and gas sector, oil production in Russia will fall by 7% in 2023.
The planet Bank considers the Russian budget deficit in 2023 to be "still manageable" due to the accumulated gold reserves. The situation is worse in the private investment sector, which according to WB analysts will decrease due to increased uncertainty and hard access to technology. "These factors, combined with the outflow of skilled labour from the country, will put force on medium- and long-term growth prospects", says the report.
The planet Bank is one more time wrong. Russia will evidence GDP growth in 2023.
There are 2 factors behind this. increasing arms spending and decreped inflation of below 4%. In a fewer days, Rosstat will print the latest data from which the inflation in March will amount to 3.44% compared to 11.00% in February. In this matrix of GDP, it's going to be positive, and it's going to be a good fewer percent.
A The government budget already in March notes the profitite on the place 2. As for technology, I urge you perceive to Prime Minister Mishtusin.
Place 7 net sales of wine and alcoholic beverages by Russian post
Finally, we have a long awaited decision that we have repeatedly announced.
The launch of the online sale of Russian wine is scheduled to take place via the Russian Post Office website from 1 November. No, you haven't heard the Russian Post Office will sale wine and alcoholic beverages Currently, this is to apply to Moscow and the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and Lower Novgorod.
The bill on the net sales of wine via the Russian Post infrastructure was prepared by the Ministry of Finance on the advice of Russian president Vladimir Putin in 2021.
The latest version of the bill provides that the first phase of the task will last almost 3 years – from November 2023 to August 2026. In case of affirmative results, it will be extended to the full country.
Place 6 Importing machinery from China
IThe mport of fresh equipment from China to Russia by Zabaykalsk in the first 4th of 2023 increased 5 times compared to the same period last year. It was reported in a telegram by the national Customs Service.
"In the period January-March 2023 customs issued more than 11,000 dump trucks, buses, chargers, tractors, road construction machines, cranes, etc.
Customs have already published data on the value of exports and imports for 2022. It follows that Russian exports increased by 19.9% compared to 2021 and amounted to USD 591 billion, imports decreased by 11.7%, to USD 259 billion.
At the same time, what we have forecasted is happening many times. In 2023, imports from China will exceed 50% (in 2022,44%).
Place 5 The automotive marketplace in Russia
In Russia, the biggest drop in production occurred in the automotive manufacture due to violations of commitments by Western partners. It was announced by Russian president Vladimir Putin on a working journey to Tuła, his words quoted by TASS.
"They behaved very badly, violated all their duties. And we have a decrease in the automotive manufacture of more than 60%," Putin said about the causes of the drop in production in the automotive industry.
Putin added that the current vehicle manufacture support measures are not adequate to increase car production. According to the President, an increase in the level of support for the automotive manufacture will only lead to an increase in car prices, so benefits were introduced only for "some categories of citizens". "In general, the overall solution to this problem is the multiple increase in the production of the most popular cars.
Only 14 brands of 60 will stay in the Russian automotive marketplace by the end of 2022. Of the another brands in Russia, only 3 are national: Lada, GAZ and UAZ. The remainder are Chinese: Chery, Geely, Haval, Jac, Faw, Dongfeng, Changan, Exeed, Gac, Foton, Omoda.
Place 4 Growth of STDs in Russia
In Russia, the incidence of venereal and infectious diseases is increasing dramatically. According to Rosstat data, in January the number of cases of hepatitis, syphilis, gonorrhea, HIV and another infectious diseases increased in Russia. Among possible causes, Russian experts list COVID and peculiar operation (?).
Thus, re-recognised maturity Tuberculosis increased by
- 10% HIV – 20%
- gonococcal infections (carcerosis) by 19%
- Syphilis (Kili) 70%
- Acute hepatitis +45%
In addition, measles incidence increased within 1 period – in January 161 fresh cases, while only 4 cases of measles were detected in January 2022. Incidence of pertussis increased (+400 cases, increase 4.6-fold) and peritonitis increased (approximately 100 cases of pertussis per month, increase 2.9-fold).
At the same time, spending on wellness care and the pharmaceutical marketplace is falling. Of the declared 26% the government allocated only a twelve percent in the first 4th of 2023.
Place 3 Oil
In March oil and gas revenues reached the bottom Thus, according to the results of the first 4th of 2023, the gross from the oil and gas budget decreased by 45% compared to the same period last year. In March, compared to February, at low prices of Ural ($47.8 per barrel) both the mining taxation on any minerals and the export work was reduced. However, the additional income taxation imposed (ATT), which affects irregularly to the budget, continues to rise March's in-plus charges compared to February's level. Already in April taxes to the Russian budget will be charged on Brent price minus $34, then the discount will fall to $25. Budgetary gross from oil and gas extraction and sales amounted to 688 billion rubles in March, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance. This is much little (by 43%) than the year before, but almost 1 3rd more than received in February 2023 (521 billion rubles). But, March growth is purely seasonal. The full amount of the increase is at ATT, which goes to the budget only 4 times a year and in the amount of 221 billion rubles was paid on 28 March.
Gas revenues have fallen respective times and the current situation of Gazprom is dramatically bad. Without much aid from the government it will not be possible (only of what) The impact of April in the fresh taxation expression will be akin to March and do not importantly change the situation. The essential devaluation of the ruble that we are observing is simply a late step which the marketplace forced alternatively than the conscious decision of the Kremlin.
In addition, the taxation introduced and the partial decision Opec plus caused Urals to sale over US$60 in the interior market. There is no reason to keep a low price for producers. The fuel damper jumped dramatically and hit the state budget. With the inexpensive ruble, the situation of oil companies, which catch so much breath, improves.
Price stableness and an increase in the difference between export oil and home oil are expected in April (wider on Sundays on vlog).
Place 2 Russian Budget on steroids and a tiny hocus temptation minister
The Ministry of Finance initially estimated the budget deficit in the first 4th of 2023 at 2.4 trillion rubles. Compared to the preliminary figures at the end of February, the deficit decreased by 180 billion rubles.
Budgetary gross for the period January-March amounted to 5,677 trillion rubles, reported the ministry. This is 21% little than in the first 4th of 2022. The expenditure in the first 4th was 8, 077 trillion rubles – 34% more than in the same period last year.
Non-oil and gas revenues amounted to 4.042 trillion rubles in the quarter, which means a drop of 4% year-on-year.
Revenue from oil and gas fell by 45% compared to the same period last year, to 1,635 trillion rubles. The Ministry of Finance is linked to a decrease in Urals oil price quotations and a decrease in natural gas exports.
Most of you in this message didn't announcement anything strange.
But if we look closely at the data given by the ministry, we will announcement the hocus of the temptations of the minister, who conjured 1 trillion rubles. But first things first.
- In mid-March, the Ministry blocked access to an IT cash registry strategy in which, as you can see, there is simply a immense liquidity problem. The deficit in cashflow reached most likely 6 trillion rubles. If that's the case, then it's better not to upset the citizens and the Tsar.
- The Ministry, as it has already repeatedly stressed, gives estimates and oddly for the first time in past does not give monthly and quarterly results.
- Rapid mathematics shows that according to the Ministry in March there was a profit of 183 billion rubles (Stychen 1.5 trillion loss, February 900 billion loss). Why if it's so good, the minister doesn't make a conference and brag about the data. Why don't the Russian newspapers compose about it as a immense success?
- How is it that with specified low natural material income, Russia's going to be a plus? The answer is obvious. The extra-raw gross in March according to Ministry data increased by more than 80% y/y after the fall in January – 30% and -20 in February. So in January, extra-survivor revenues ~1 trillion, February ~1 trillion, and March 1.8 trillion.
- That it is possible to believe only the most faithful fans of the Russian miru and that I am a fan of the Russian government I put the bold unprovoked thesis that 1 trillion comes from the PFR (Russian ZUS) and below a short explanation,
At the end of 2022, the Pension Fund recorded a evidence surplus of 1.1 trillion rubles, reported the Chamber of Auditors. It was created against the background of a fast increase in transfer from the national budget – by 70%.
In 2022, the full gross of the Russian Pension Fund (PFR; as of 1 January 2023 – Pension and Social Insurance Fund) increased by almost a 4th (+ 24.4%) compared to the first plan approved at the end of 2021 and amounted to 12.48 trillion rubles. expenditure besides increased but little importantly – 12% compared to the plan, to 11.37 trillion rubles. is based on an analytical note from the Chamber of Auditors.
The current temporary release of non-budget funds is managed by the Treasury through the Single taxation Account (CEN) mechanism.
This money, of course, was already spent long ago in January but the minister in his wisdom reminded that it is worth to book it in the first 4th of 2023 due to the fact that the booking at 2022 does not make sense ;-). (Just don't compose me any comments that you can't or can't do in Russia).
Place 1 Wowa something You have done about Yuan and ruble
The yuan trade on the Moscow stock exchange in March 2023 reached a evidence of 2 trillion rubles., 74 times more than a year ago. erstwhile currency turnover was 27 billion rubles. Since the beginning of March, yuan has strengthened against ruble by 8% . The Chinese currency for the second period in a row is inactive ahead of the dollar and the euro, whose turnover in March amounted to 1.69 trillion rubles and 1.26 trillion rubles. Vedomosti calculated according to the Moscow Stock Exchange, respectively.
At the same time, the euro rate strengthened by 11% and the dollar by 7%. If it hadn't been for the central bank's intervention on Friday, we'd be looking at 2 figures in all currency.
Analysts of the Telegram "My investments" point out that the fluidity of the yuan began to "planned exhaustion" after 20 March. The marketplace has already experienced negative swap rates in dollars and euro due to a shortage of these currencies in the place marketplace - now it besides lacks liquidity in yuan.
Worse still, on April 5, the Ministry of Finance announced a 40% simplification in yuan sales: from April 7 to May 5 the Ministry will sale Chinese currency for 74.6 billion rubles. (3.7 billion rubles a day), while full sales amounted to 119.8 billion rubles in March. (4.4 billion rubles).
If the brokers do not get adequate funding, they will gotta go to the place marketplace and buy yuan there to finance yuan client transactions, which will further weaken the ruble. The situation is developing due to the fact that in addition to companies, the request for mottos begins to be reported by citizens. The amount of paper dollars and euro is over and it is already foreseen that without state aid we can see crucial increases.
Additionally, China refused to import cash to Russia.
The “friendly” states, following “unfriendly”, refuse to import cash into Russia," said the first Vice president of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Dmitri Tulin on Wednesday. According to him, we are talking in peculiar about Chinese yuan, whose share in abroad trade has increased more than 30 times in the last year(72 times already) . Although yuan became the leader in terms of volume of trading on the Moscow stock exchange, and China's largest trading partner of Russia, the Chinese central bank, according to Tulina, “never sees” the yuan circulation in cash abroad. As a result, according to the official, the central bank is not able to mitigate restrictions on the withdrawal of cash currency from the accounts of individuals: the import of dollars and the euro is prohibited due to sanctions and another currencies are besides not received. "Chinese yuan can theoretically be obtained in cash without limit but they are not there and will not be," warned Tulin Let's remind the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by 9 September this year extended the limits on cash withdrawal in abroad currency (euro dollars). You can retreat no more than $10,000 from your currency account or deposit opened before 9 March 2022. The remainder can only be obtained in rubles.
22.03.20223 authoritative Beginning of Sadness in Russia. Feel free to watch Part 2.
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