Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk
– Kamala Harris and Donald Trump took part in the debate of presidential candidates organized by ABC News; this was most likely the last debate in this election run (the first met Trump and Joe Biden).
– The debate was won by Harris, who dealt with the pressure, was well prepared and was on the offensive for almost the full debate, while Trump spoke more spontaneously, frequently chaoticly and sometimes aggressively; after the debate, the Democratic candidate received support from Taylor Swift.
– It is not yet possible to full measure the impact of the debate on the surveys in key states and the follow-up of the campaign; no fresh programme proposals have been submitted from both candidates that could affect circumstantial groups of voters.
– The erstwhile 2 weeks of the run consisted of intense electoral agitation by both sides in respective key states and a akin script should be expected in the following weeks; for Harris, winning the debate is an injection of motivation, in turn Trump must find the right communicative for voters after a weak performance.
– The polls indicate a tie with a minimum indication on Harris; her run is better organized and funded (only in August she raised a full of about $361 million compared to around 130 million for Trump's campaign).
The course of the debate – selected themes
There were no fresh programme proposals from Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and the candidates answered questions primarily on the following topics: economy and life costs, immigration and border security, import duties, abortion, peaceful transfer of power in the context of the events of January 6, 2021, the war between Israel and Hamas, the war of Russia against Ukraine, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and wellness insurance [1].
In the key subject of economy and life costs, Harris has maintained her existing programming line, stressing that it comes from the mediate class, has a support plan for this, and its aim is to build a "economic capacity".
She repeated any key promises: a taxation credit of $6,000 for families with newborn children and a taxation credit for fresh businesses of $50,000. On immigration and border protection, she avoided answering the question why it wasn't until June. Joe Biden, by means of an executive regulation, introduced restrictions on access to asylum applications in the US by immigrants. For this she referred to a bill providing for additional backing for the protection of the Mexican border and containing provisions amending immigration law, which was negotiated by senators from both parties and representatives of Biden's administration, but was not put to the vote in legislature in February this year as a consequence of opposition from Republicans and Trump. On the subject of customs, it found Trump's administration to be ineffective and strengthening the People's Republic of China. On abortion, she advocated the restoration of the national right to abortion before the repeal of the historical ultimate Court judgement of Roe v. Wade in 2022 [2].
Trump's announcements in key themes were, for example, a very general simplification in taxes, the construction of a "great economy", the closure of the confederate US border and the construction of a border wall, and the continuation of customs policy.
The erstwhile president was on the defensive for almost the full debate, and was primarily engaged in defending the policy of his administration from 2017 to 2021 and attacking the Biden administration, including his rival, for the decisions of the last 4 years. However, he has repeatedly missed the fact or ostentatiously misled, for example, by claiming that crime in the US is now historically high, or that Tim Walz, the Vice president candidate Harris, supports abortion in the 9th period of pregnancy and the execution of children after birth, or that Trump erstwhile he was president "saved" the alleged Obamacare (an extension of the wellness insurance strategy passed for Barack Obama's presidency). He besides promoted conspiracy theories claiming that in Springfield, Ohio, immigrants consume pets. respective times during the debate, journalists straightened out the false claims of a Republican candidate [3♪[4].
In the abroad policy area, Trump did not answer yes to the question whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia and declared that his goal was to end the war. citing false amounts, he felt that Europe had allocated $150 billion little to aid Ukraine than the US. He stated that Russia's placement of troops along the Ukrainian border in the months preceding the invasion of 24 February 2024 was an introduction to negotiations that Biden's administration could not take. He expressed assurance that the way the US withdrew from Afghanistan was the reason why Russia attacked Ukraine. Harris, on the another hand, stood on the ground of politics towards Ukraine and NATO led by the Biden administration. She listed Poland as the most endangered country in the case of Russia's addiction to Ukraine and appealed to voters of Polish origin in Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electorate votes and where the debate took place [5].
The debate was very intense, with Harris being clearly better prepared than her rival and dealing with the pressure. Although she did not present fresh programme proposals, she was more disciplined and her statements were better organized. She addressed her rival and voters directly, while Trump addressed almost exclusively journalists. She skillfully provoked Trump, who most likely ignored warnings before the debate and allowed himself to get out of balance. The debate was a contrast of a minimally stressed, serene and circumstantial Harris with an aggressive, exhibiting anger and chaotic Trump.
Background of the debate
Kamala Harris approached the debate with a greater burden: she was tasked with taking the best chance so far to present herself well to the Americans (who inactive know it poorly), proving that she was a presidential format politician and that she was able to cope well with media speeches. This task was all the more hard due to the fact that it had much little political and media experience than its rival. Higher expectations made Harris have a smaller margin of failure. A poll published 2 days before the debate of Siena's studio commissioned by the fresh York Times paper noted a slight decline in support of Harris in a nationwide survey, as well as convincing respondents that Donald Trump was far more likely to give them prospects for change and that they needed to learn more about Harris than about Trump [6].
An additional reason why the debate rate was higher was the incomplete usage by Harris of an earlier chance to present himself as a presidential format politician, which was interviewed jointly by Democratic candidate and Tim Walz of CNN station on August 29. It was then that Harris could not clearly answer a very predictable question about what circumstantial actions she would take on the first day of office, and the individual asked mentioned a number of actions that would most likely require Congress' approval. She frequently did not respond straight to the questions of a writer who had to repeat her questions, she did not convincingly answer the question why she did not fulfill a number of her postulates erstwhile she was vice president and keyed to prove that her allegations of changing her position on many crucial issues were missed. Harris has been facing cyclicalism charges for weeks. The interview was predictable and unconvincing, though the deficiency of spectacular verbal blunders and controversy and comparatively tiny ratings (more than 6 million people in front of TVs) made its impact on the campaign's course appear to be alternatively neutral [7].
Outside the debate
The erstwhile 2 weeks of the run were alternatively marked by a positional conflict in which both sides campaigned intensively in alleged fluctuating states and raised funds for campaigning. The lead in this race was maintained by Kamala Harris, who continued to strengthen herself in the polls and increased financial advantage over Donald Trump – only in August her run raised about $360 million with about 130 million of her rival [8]. Her run is besides better organized in the field and uses more conventional methods like electoral agitation involving a large number of volunteers [9♪[10].
The model of position conflict will be maintained and strengthened after the debate. For Harris, it provides an injection of motivation and generates a desire to convert a good performance into maintaining a favorable trend in the polls – the first major survey following a debate by Ipsos commissioned by Reuters shows an increase by the Democratic candidate in the national survey from 4 to 5% (47:42) [11]. Her run will shortly most likely presume more interviews (including in key states), large electoral rallies and fresh electoral spots utilizing passages of debate [12]. Harris was further reinforced by Taylor Swift's support and her staff offered another debate, which Trump nevertheless refused. 2 days after the debate, a Republican candidate declared that the reason for this refusal was that he had won 2 debates to date and did not request another [13]. In fact, he ignored his opponent and lost the debate, after which he gives up his chance of overtime and proves one more time that he relies more on his own intuition than the advice of advisors. On 1 October there will be a debate on candidates for Vice President, but it will be a side event for this campaign.
[1] Riley Hoffman, READ: Harris-Trump presidential debate Transcript, ABC News, 11.09.2024, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Debate Fact Check: Harris and Trump on the Economy, Immigration and Abortion, The fresh York Times, 10.09.2024, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/10/us/debate-trump-harris-fact-check.
[5] Riley Hoffman, READ: Harris-Trump.’, op.cit.
[6] Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide, The fresh York Times, 8.09.2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-toplines.html.
[7] READ: Harris and Walz’s exclusive joint interview with CNN, CNN, 30.08.20124, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/29/politics/harris-walz-interview-read-transcript/index.html.
[8] Erin Doherty, Harris raised $361 million in August, almost triple Trump’s haul, Axios, 6.09.2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/09/06/harris-august-fundraising-trump-dnc-2024.
[9] Shelby Talcott, Burgess Everett, Donald Trump’s unconventional ground game is making Republicans nervous, Semafor, 10.09.2024, https://www.semafor.com/article/09/09/2024/donald-trumps-unconventional-ground-game-is-making-republicans-nervous.
[10] Nnamdi Egwuonwu, Harris and Walz heading to Georgia as run seeks to build on convention moment, NBC News, 24.08.20124, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-tim-walz-georgia-convention-momentum-rcna168039.
[11] Jason Lange, Harris vs. Trump: Who is leading the polls?Reuters, 13.09.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/.
[12] Jennifer Epstein, Nancy Cook, Skylar Woodhouse, Trump, Harris Spar Over Debate as Candidates Return to Trail, 13.09.2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-12/after-presidential-debate-trump-harris-return-to-trail-targeting-key-states?srnd=homepage-americas.
[13] Stephen Collinson, Why Trump ditched a debate rematch – for nowCNN, 13.09.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/13/politics/trump-no-debate-rematch-analysis/index.html.
