Expected expanding uncertainty in the oil market

manager24.pl 3 days ago

War in the mediate East contributes to rising fuel and energy prices. The reason is, among another things, problems with the capacity of the Ormuz Strait, which is 1 of the largest sea knots in the world. According to UN Trade and Development, about a 4th of earth’s oil flows through it. The escalation of the conflict creates uncertainty on global stock exchanges. According to Polish Euro-Parliamentarians, from the position of the global economy, war activities should be completed as shortly as possible.

"This conflict has an impact on the increase in fuel prices. Iran exported crucial amounts of oil. Not Europe, but Asia. However, the critical and most crucial thing at the minute is the roadway of transport, namely the Strait of Ormuz and the situation in this region. I think this control will be maintained and the military forces will not let the blockade that Iran mentions – Says Andrzej Halicki, associate of the European Parliament of the Civic Coalition, in an interview with Newseria Agency.

The share of oil carried by the Ormuz Strait in planet maritime trade was 38% 1 week before the mediate East conflict began, according to the UN Trade and improvement report. However, the escalation of wartime activities disrupted shipping flows. On 27 February this year, the day before the outbreak of the conflict, 141 ships crossed the strait. On 28 February this year it was 81 units, 1 March – 20, and on 3 March only three.

"The conflict increases prices and speculation. Thus, prices are affected, fortunately in Poland rather limited. We gotta number on the fact that today's stock marketplace is restless, and we'll be certain to see what these prices look like all day. It would be best to end the war and end this conflict, due to the fact that it has an impact on the global economy – says Andrzej Halicki.

Oil markets reacted very rapidly to the situation. UN Trade and improvement data show Brent's oil prices rose by 27% between February 27 and March 9, 2026, reaching 91.8 dollars per barrel.

– If we are talking about the safety of water transport, then the announcement of the deescalation of the conflict must be kept and implemented. The issue of extracting and maintaining a adequate quantity of natural material on the marketplace is very important. Therefore, this is besides a task for those producers who have so far produced certain quantities, and present they must most likely increase their production to supply more natural material to the markets – emphasises the Euro MP from the Civic Coalition.

The Ormuz Strait is simply a key export way for six Gulf oil producers. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United arabian Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar have about 55 percent of the world's resources of this natural material.

– The Ormuz Strait will be blocked once, once, due to the fact that it will consequence in a very simple mechanics for raising prices and cost-effectiveness of investments. The safety of this way would guarantee a 4th of our army, let alone the United States or Saudi Arabia. These are 3 km where you can get full capacity, and besides safe them on land and in the air – This is Daniel Obietek, associate of the European Parliament of Law and Justice.

On 10 March this year, president Donald Trump, via social media, announced that if Iran placed any mines in the Ormuz Strait and received no reports about it, the United States would like them to be removed immediately. On the same day, the United States Central Command reported the elimination of many Iranian warships, including 16 mins.

– I anticipate large uncertainty and oil prices between $85 and $100. Iran is simply a powerful country with about 90 million people, but it will not be unchangeable for long. But I don't think the Americans want to bring their troops there. This is virtually impossible and unprofitable, so this area will be very unstable, which will affect the full mediate East – Daniel Obietek believes. So we cannot anticipate lower oil prices. I think it'll take at least a year. We'll see how the situation unfolds. On this they will benefit the powers, especially those who have seized the springs of the world-- adds.

The Center for east Studies citing the Energy Information Agency data indicates that in the first half of 2025 the vast majority of exports of crude oil from the Gulf region went to Asian countries, most of which to China. We're talking about about a 3rd of the full volume.

– The main thing was that the Chinese economy did not grow stronger and did not have inexpensive natural material. The United States' economical war with China is ongoing, and president Trump will not win it unless he achieves appropriate competitiveness. China dominated the world's natural materials, due to the fact that Europe, with 460 million people, withdrew from various interests. I know how China has taken over African countries, and they wanted to do so with Venezuela. They were besides curious in oil in Greenland - emphasises the Euro MP of Law and Justice.

It besides talks about the alleged U.S. natural protectionism.

– These companies that are going to mine oil and sale it outside, they're going to do it after the ratings. But the oil for processing, for which the same companies are responsible, will be moved to it at another costs in the United States. Consequently, there will be a large difference in the price of products and their Trump will compete in Europe and in another countries in the world. They will be produced at a lower cost of natural materials – explains Daniel Obietek. – Let us be honest - without a strong America there will be no safety in Europe. After all, it is the Americans who warrant them throughout our continent through NATO. So on the 1 hand we suffer, but on the another hand this suffering is simply a byproduct of the fact that China and Russia do not dominate – adds.

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