“Let us remember that it is frequently the case that the popular leader of the group gets better results in the presidential election than his organization in the parliamentary election,” noted the political scientist Prof. UW, Rafał Chwedoruk.
And in this case, he adds, the Confederacy became a universal organization of protest.
– Whether it's a protest of a local character like Bełchatów in the local elections, or a organization of protest at all for those dissatisfied with their situation, or a organization of protest on the Ukrainian issue, for example. This was an additional plus, in addition to the conventional libertarian and powerfully right-wing electorate. Meanwhile, the destiny of the protest organization is mostly a time-limited fate, due to the fact that the subject that releases energy is either solved or taken over by another formation. 1 of the mainstreams or even more extremist ones – he says in an interview with Temat.
Therefore, the last decline of the Confederate in the polls does not surprise him. It was so with Paul Kukiz, Robert Biedron and others. That's what happens to Mentenza. As the political scientist says, both 5 and 15 percent. The Confederates should not surprise us at all.
"In this case, it is very clear that the Confederacy is not serving the location between mainstream PiS and utmost Grzegorz Braun. It is not as organizationally powerful as mainstream PiS, nor is it as rebellious and uncompromising as Braun – comments Rafał Chwedoruk.
What else affects the weakening strength of the Confederate? What's going to happen to her? Since Mentzen's presidential campaign, we've been utilized to his organization being number 3 in the country. She's had about 18 percent support.
And present it is heard that it is stagnant.
Drops in polls. "I feel like the Confederation of Mentzen is sleeping a little."
You've seen the drop for a while. The last poll, just before Christmas Eve, just confirmed it. According to Opinii24's survey for "Facts" TVN and TVN24, if elections were held next Sunday, the Confederacy, yes, would inactive be in 3rd place, but with a large decline.
10.7% of respondents would vote for it. This is simply a decrease of 3.9 percent points, according to TVN24.
In comparison, the Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun was ranked 4th and saw an increase of 2.4 percent. 8.6 percent of respondents would vote for it.
Meanwhile, another polls have besides pointed to the decline of the Menzten organization since early December. possibly not big, but the rage he was around before, you can't see. And 1 of the fresh polls caused a real shock erstwhile it turned out that the organization of Grzegorz Braun overtook the Confederation (10.67 percent) and jumped to 3rd place (11.18 percent).
– I feel like the Confederation of Mentzen is sleeping a little. They were besides good for a while. Now they have interior problems. Menzten has eliminated the party, he's a landless master. Meanwhile, Confederate Braun opens champagne. They're just picking up everyone who's sick of fighting in the PiS – so he commented on these results in a conversation with Artur Dziambor, erstwhile Confederate politician, present in the PSL.
He besides stated that the old Confederate had nothing from the old Confederate.
There's nothing to sell. They're flying on fumes. On the tictock electorate and youth electorate. And this is an electorate that can change the front at any time erstwhile individual else shows up. Then the Confederation of Menztena will completely lose its appeal, due to the fact that there will be individual who will be even more cool – predicting.
Today prof. Chwedoruk comments that many Confederate voters are very young voters who do not necessarily become at the urns and may change their mind.
– Janusz Korwin-Mikke always experienced it. As he was doing well in any election, it turned out that in the next election he was not present. This is simply a common image in Polish politics. This was the case with Kukiz, among others. And in the final instance it turns out that Polish politics are governed by Tusk, Kaczyński, Czarzasty, who do not necessarily always gotta have a crowd of people at a rally. It is adequate that they have an office and a telephone – he says.
"For many Confederate voters, the Confederate began to be a mainstream party"
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk besides sees stagnation in the Confederacy. And another perceptions of her than before.
"The Confederacy, by negotiating with the PO and the Law and Justice, of course strengthened its position in the organization strategy itself, but at the same time for many voters, began to be simply a slow mainstream party. And in view of the persistence of a reasonably large percent of the disgruntled, it has necessarily weakened her ability to influence – she believes.
Some of those who had previously looked at Mentezna must have gone to Braun. To the Law and Justice, it's alternatively small.
– Grzegorz Braun has mostly assumed the position of the protest that the Confederate had previously had. First of all, protesting about Polish policy towards Ukraine and Ukraine towards Poland. In this way he bid on the Confederate, as shown by the not very successful manifestation of the Confederate politicians during Zelenski's visit, says a political scientist.
So the question is, has the Confederate reached the ceiling yet? Especially erstwhile you see a increasing trend for Braun?
"The large manager of Polish politics will be ending war in Ukraine"
Many, as we hear not from today, depend on developments in Ukraine.
– The large manager of Polish politics will be the ending of the war in Ukraine. The protest parties were gaining on this subject. Many Poles feared that Poland could be drawn into this war. Others feared the effects of mass migration from Ukraine, others lost on Ukraine's economical policy. erstwhile this context passes, it's gonna be a large check for Braun and Mentzen. In my opinion, only the end of the war will decide about Braun – says prof. Chwedoruk.
Then we'll see if they find a fresh trampoline.
The political scientist points to examples from abroad erstwhile specified parties were successful, disappeared or became meaningless formations.
– This is precisely what the formations of Mentzen and Braun will most likely be in front of next calendar year. And the fact that as many as 3 right-wing entities compete for a akin electorate is something that surely does not make life easier for any of them," he points out.
But what about the Confederate?
"Confederation stagnant," "All her weaknesses are slow revealed"
"I think the Confederacy will be in any kind of stagnation. She's strong adequate to survive, but she won't have adequate subjects to clearly emergence above. It will be torn apart by interior contradictions between those who would be willing to compromise far-reaching, in order to get along with the Law and Justice in the future Sejm and enter the government, and those who think that a more libertarian way must be followed," says prof. Chwedoruk.
As he notes, the Confederacy is in any sense universal to politics.
– I think she will besides block this organization and hinder its development. This is simply a organization that has benefited enormously from the situation context. Something that happened in the short term. This was helped by successful electoral campaigns. On the another hand, erstwhile this organization entered the mills of professional politics, all its weaknesses slow uncover themselves – he believes.
However, he notices that separately in the polls they can be a delightful treat, whether for Braun or for the Law and Justice and possibly even for PSL.
“This is besides an option which cannot be completely excluded in Polish politics,” he says.
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