I'm sorry, but I don't see this election being "stamped"

This is happening right now. Camp Trzaskowski and his commentatorial otulin enjoys utilizing their media advantage – at least for any reason, they started their governments with the brutal recovery of public media, didn't they? So their media resonant box repeats a fresh message day and night. That Nawrocks Weak, without charisma, without views and at all a large zero, null, blow.

Presidential election 2025. fresh message about Nawrock

Note that these are usually precisely the same media – and frequently even the same commentators – who referred to Nawrock as an highly dangerous pest a period or 2 ago. A form of mean, brutal and slimy, whose success could jeopardise the full task of “smiling Poland”. Now abruptly Nawro has turned into a “weak” and “lost”. The fresh transmission makes Nawrock forget. Make it clear. Shake your hand.

Wait, wait. And what – if you may ask – we actually have evidence that this is the case. And that Poles and Poles did not buy the maneuver with support by PiS Chief IPN In the presidential race? erstwhile you think about it, there's actually not much of it. What we have is – first of all – “reports from the staff”. Of course, "anonymous".

They inform us regularly that it is “bad”, “not going” and that “even the PiS sabotages”. Well, the thing about anonymous is, they can tell us anything. For example, I can compose to you here that Trzaskowski is simply a reptilian. A Mentzen having an affair with Anna Maria Żukowska. How do I know? Well, that's how my anonymous sources are telling me in close circles. They tell me things like that...

Or another conclusive proof of the apparent failure of Nawrocki's campaign. Well, perceive carefully, this proof is that he had to affect himself in it. Jarosław Kaczyński. Yes, it is simply a real surprise that the unquestioned leader of Nawrocki's support camp has joined his campaign. Shock and disbelief.

Someone will say, "The polls." Excuse me? You're talking about the same polls that haven't helped us foretell the result of the election for years, which is alternatively disturbing. telephone polls at 500? You might as well ask a monkey from the zoo (if he agrees) to throw darts at the candidates' portraits. And then add up the results. I bet a human form can have a better score than this or this lab.

Why “smiled” go into specified stories, of course I understand. The Trzaskowski Staff and the openly cheered commentaries play in apparent ways to break the opponent. It's a morale shot.

After the authentic attacks – halting funding, arresting/removing immunity to opposition Members (including those who were heavy active in Nawrocki's campaign) – comes the phase of sowing defeatism. PiS-ioras are to be discouraged, to believe that these elections are already twisted. Then why try? You'd better stay home, light your tv or catch your cell telephone and burn your holy outrage at Tuska, Bodnara And what's their name?

Definitely more amazing that part of the right-wing camp is being caught. any went into a communicative about the "break-up duo Mentzen" like a boar in fresh acorn. Others repeat their wisdom about “the Nawrocki” without knowing it like a fresh interesting rumor. It doesn't matter. How many of them will buy this message depends on the state of temper on the right around 18 May and then 2 weeks later.

But reality is completely different. Objectively, there is no reason to claim present – at the end of March 2025 – that everything is already decided against the opposition. And for a fewer reasons.

Not a declassification, but a fight to the end

First, these elections will have 2 tours. present many seem to forget this simple fact that 2 tours are not 1 turn. due to the fact that 2 tours don't mean the winner of the first fight has a triumph in the second 1 in his pocket. In my opinion, on 18 May, it will end like this: Trzaskowski 33 percent, Nawrocki 25 percent, Mentzen 15 percent.

Given the fact that the Law and Confa go to these elections in informal terms – speaking cheerleading – consent. And besides remembering that in these elections the flows from Mentzen to Nawrocki in the second circular are to be between 75-90 percent (and we know this from good, unlike instrumental deep investigation polls).

All this together makes Nawrocki naturally jumps over Trzaskovsky after May 18 by swallowing Mentzen's electorate. And there's a real game of "minor." Where on the 1 hand is the electorate of the milled appetizers of the Tusk government (Loin, Biejat and Zandberg). On the another hand, a fewer candidates in today's conditions are more like PiS-tender (Jakubiak, Braun, Bartoszevichmay Stanowski). Nothing's been swept up yet.

Secondly, this election will be a plebiscite. 2 visions of Poland collide. 1 is simply a “smiled” project, which from the “saving democracy” declared before 2023 has evolved into the completion of dePiS-development. And since what is already happening – as even a immense part of the “smiling” already sees – with a violation of the spirit and letters of democracy, it is natural for many normals to fall out of the project, for which what is happening is “one bridge besides far”.

Opposite is the imagination of the counteroffensive of the "patriot camp". In opposition to Tusk, but most likely already in a different form than the pure PiS-owska from the years 2015-23. This task has its nonsubjective limitations. Facing the opposition (although little money for the campaign) is simply a fact that affects the ongoing clash. And it gives the well-funded Trzaskowski a bonus in the form, in my opinion, of respective percent points against “poor” Nawrocki. On the another hand, it is inactive only a fewer points, not a overwhelming advantage.

Third, those who have ruled for a year and a half have already slept on their appetizers. Tusk announces these good polls for himself regularly. And Trzaskowski, in the first round, uses an electorate suction Left and The 3rd Way. However, if there were a parliamentary election today, the smiling majority would not be there. But in the second circular of presidential elections without a smiling majority there will besides be no reflection of the Presidential Palace.

Sorry, but looking clearly at all these factors, I honestly do not see that it is "stamped". I see a fight to the very end. In which any consequence is inactive possible.

Rafał Woś