United Surveys by IBRiS for Virtual Poland in a survey dated 21-23 August 2026 gave KO 27.3%, PiS 20.6%, Confederations 14.1 percent, Crowns 8.4 percent, Lefts 7.1% and improvement Plus 6.5%. 1 consequence is the calculation of the tickets: the Tusk camp has no majority, and the right would regulation only with Grzegorz Braun.
KO leads, but loses ground
Newest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Virtual Poland shows the arrangement of forces that should cool the triumphism of the ruling camp. The civilian Coalition is inactive the first, but with a score of 27.3% and a decrease of 1.4 percent points. This is not support for political freedom. Rather, it is simply a signal that Donald Tusk's organization leads, but alone there is no way to the majority.
Law and Justice gained 20.6%, i.e. increased by 2.8 percent points. The Confederation received 14.1 percent and improved the score by 3.5 percent points, most powerfully in the full study. The 4th is the Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun with 8.4 percent. Further were left with 7.1 percent and improvement Plus Mateusz Morawiecki with 6.5 percent.
The organization poll shows the weakness of the coalitions Tusk
Under the threshold there were 3 groups: the organization Together with the consequence of 4%, the Polish People's organization with 3 percent and Poland 2050 with 0.8 percent. That's more crucial information than KO's first place. The Liberal block can win the ranking and lose the bill.
To the present power, it's a strong informing like arithmetic. KO and Left would have a full of 198 tickets, which is 33 little than needed for the majority in the Sejm. PSL and Poland 2050 would not aid Tusk due to the fact that in this variant they do not exceed the threshold. The power that has sold over the years as the only unchangeable alternate collides with its own fragmentation.
The PiS is growing, the Confederacy is accelerating
On the right side there is besides no simple return to the old arrangement. The PiS, Confederation and improvement Plus would bring together a full of 224 mandates, 7 besides fewer to most. Only joining the Confederation of the Polish Crown would give the block right 262 tickets. It's a politically decisive number, even if all poll is just a photograph of the moment.
Such a consequence is confirmed by a process that has been seen for months: the right-wing voter no longer falls exclusively into the logic of the PO versus the PiS. In a fresh text about the CBOS study, we wrote that The Confederacy is increasingly pushing for the Law and Justice. Now the WP data show the same direction, only in a different mandate.
Most of them depend on the right.
The most crucial proposal is political. If the right wants to take power from the Liberal camp, it must halt treating its wings as an image problem. We request to talk about the state, taxes, security, sovereignty and limits of Brussels interference. Without specified a conversation, even the good results of respective groups may end in a seismic pact.
There have already been signals that the subject of cooperation will not disappear. Patrick Jako did not exclude the government from the Confederationand current calculations only reenforce the force on all right-wing leaders. Voter can accept the program dispute. He hates pride and organization calculations more than the state's business.
Methodology and mandates
Virtual Poland reported that with this consequence KO would introduce 169 MPs, PiS 122, Confederation 77, Confederation of the Polish Crown 38, Left 29, and improvement Plus 25. The calculations were made utilizing an approximate method of Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University. The portal reserved that the real division could vary by 3-5 mandates per committee.
The survey was carried out on 21-23 August 2026 by CATI and CAWI methods on a typical example of 1000 adults in Poland. The undecided percent was 8.2%. That's a lot. This group may decision the result, but does not remove the main image: the ruling center is weakening in the back, and the right grows where it speaks the language of security, freedom and opposition to liberal management of Poland.
Rate for Poles
For citizens there is no surviving area puzzle of names. The question is whether after the election the state will have a majority able to defend Polish interests, or will again be stuck in a fragile arrangement dependent on the ambition of respective leaders. Wallet, school, border safety and sovereignty towards Brussels will not wait for further organization pushes.
This poll tells the right-wingers the simple thing: voters give it a chance, but they don't give anyone a monopoly. Anyone who does not realize this can turn Poland into the hands of the same liberal elites who already have a problem with most of their own camp.
Source: Virtual Poland, One, Polish Radio24.
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