Survey: The civilian Coalition is losing power. A powerful revolution in the country?

photo. Ministry of abroad Affairs of the Republic of Poland from Warsaw, Poland
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0

The latest organization poll published by the Virtual Poland portal announces a political revolution in the Sejm. Although the Citizen Coalition retains the position of leader of the election race, due to the decline of its coalitions – Poland 2050 and PSL – below the electoral threshold, the current ruling camp loses the majority.

The survey conducted by United Surveys studio commissioned by Virtual Poland from 16 to 18 October 2026 indicates that the election race is won by the Civic Coalition with a consequence of 29.7 percent of the votes (a fall of 0.9 percent points compared to the beginning of October). The second place is the Law and Justice, for which 17.2% of respondents (a decrease of 0.8 percent points) declare their willingness to vote, and the podium closes the Confederation with 13.2% support (a decrease of 0.9 percent points).

However, the key change in the political map brings further positions where fresh initiatives have been registered.

The detailed agenda of votes for the another committees is presented by the Virtual Poland portal:

"The self-start of the Polish Crown Confederation Grzegorz Braun would bring her as many as 10 percent of the vote. The election threshold besides exceeds the Left (7.3%). The fresh improvement Plus initiative by Mateusz Morawiecki would besides be included in the Sejm with a consequence of 6.2 percent. another committees would be outside parliament: Polish People's organization gained 4.4 percent, organization full 3.2 percent, and Poland 2050 only 0.4 percent. The indecisive represent 8.4 percent of respondents."

In addition to the Sejm, then, there would be the full 3rd Road, which drastically changes the layout on Wiejska Street.

Conversion to seats – right with a majority of 242 votes

The simulation of the allocation of mandates for Virtual Poland shows that the Civic Coalition would introduce 184 MPs into the Sejm and the Left 34. In total, the 2 formations would have only 218 votes, which does not let a government to be created in the 460-person chamber (the absolute majority required is 231 seats).

The possible creation of the government passes into the hands of right-wing groups which get a full of 242 mandates.

The final division of seats in the parliament is summarised by Karolina Kołodziejczyk in Virtual Poland:

"Meanwhile, on the right side of the political scene, 4 formations would be divided by mandates: the PiS (94 mandates), the Confederation (69 mandates), the Confederation of the Polish Crown (49 mandates) and the formation of improvement Plus Mateusz Morawiecki (30 mandates). In total, these groups would have 242 mandates to form a majority."

A survey conducted on a typical example of 1,000 adult Poles utilizing the CATI&CAWI method caused confusion on the political stage, indicating the advanced hazard of failure of power by the ruling coalition in case of fragmentation and independent starts of smaller partners.