The Citizens' Coalition would win parliamentary elections, but would lose power - according to the latest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Virtual Poland. The current ruling coalition would lose the majority in the Sejm as PSL and Poland 2050 would not exceed the electoral threshold. A possible majority could gain a broad right-wing block, including the Law and Justice and both Confederations.
United Surveys by IBRiS conducted a survey on 2-4 January 2026 on a example of a 1000 people. The results show that the Civic Coalition would gain 30.9 percent support, which means a drop of 0.6 percent points compared to December. Law and Justice would take second place with a score of 25.9 percent (an increase of 0.8 points).
Third place would be the Confederation with 11.2 percent (a fall of 0.9 points), and just behind it the Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun with a score of 9.7 percent (an increase of 1.6 points). The Left would have entered the Sejm with an endorsement of 8.2 percent (an increase of 1 point).
Apart from Parliament, there would be 3 parties to the current ruling coalition. The Together organization would gain 4.4 percent of support, with the biggest increase of all groups - by 2 percent points. PSL would fall to 3.2 percent (down 1.7 points) and Poland to just 2 percent (up 1 point).
Simulation of allocation of mandates
According to the calculations of Virtual Poland in the 460-member Sejm, the Citizen Coalition would win 182 tickets, PiS - 149, Confederate - 53, Confederation of the Polish Crown - 43, and Left - 33. 231 votes are needed to form a government.
The current Liberal-Left Coalition (KO and Left) would have only 215 seats and would deficiency 16 votes to the majority. Virtual Poland estimates that "In specified a arrangement power in Poland could take over a wide right-wing block - if of course there would be an agreement between the Law and the environment of both Confederations". specified a coalition would have 245 seats.
Emergency signal for large batches
Dr Bartłomiej Bishop from the University of Warsaw, quoted by Virtual Poland, evaluates the increase in support for utmost groups as a informing signal for the main parties. "It involves the uncertain times we have today. In specified times there is always an increase in support for utmost groups," said the expert.
Bishop noted that "Many people want to overthrow the existing old order. It's a threat to large parties. We have seen for any time that voters are ageing and even though the PO and the PiS inactive have leadership positions, this is an emergency signal for them."
Politologist pointed to the problem of "changing elites that since the 1990s they have mostly been inactive the same people". "There was specified an effort to exchange elites. Poland 2050 built on the same slogans (as KO - ed.) but it did not work due to the fact that it was not extreme. The utmost slogans go more peculiarly to young people," explained the Bishop.
The expert stressed at the same time that "Poland is an exception here, due to the fact that in another countries of Western Europe akin parties have much greater support". He besides added that almost 2 years remained for the next parliamentary elections, so the political situation could inactive change dramatically.
Note: The article was created utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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