The Citizens' Coalition leads with a consequence of 30.2%, but the United Surveys by IBRiS poll for WP, conducted on September 4-6, 2026, gives the current ruling camp only 214 mandates, by 17 not adequate to the majority. 4 groups of right-wing opposition would gain a full of 246 seats. For Donald Tusk, that means losing power in specified an arrangement.
First place doesn't give Tusk the majority
The Citizen Coalition took first place, but it is the seismic arithmetic that determines the ability to rule. In the United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Virtual Poland KO gained 30.2% support, 2.9 percent points more than in late August. Law and Justice came second with a score of 19.2%, after a decline of 1.4 percent points. The 3rd Confederation increased by 1 percent point and reached 15.1%.
Ko's growth alone is not adequate for Donald Tusk. The left side is 6.6%, while the remaining current government partners are under the threshold. The PSL gained 3.7 percent and Poland only 0.5 percent. The votes given to these groups would not translate into their mandates. The current government construction so loses its parliamentary backdrop despite moving the largest party.
This is simply a strong signal for Poles. The triumph of a single group does not give the right to present the full camp as socially strengthened. Voters account for each organization separately, and 2 coalitionists Donald Tusk in this measurement falls out of the Sejm. In practice, this means the end of the current majority if a akin distribution of votes remains at the ballot boxes in the parliamentary elections.
Four groups on the right side of the threshold
Apart from the Law and the Confederation, the Confederation of the Polish Crown would enter the Sejm with the consequence of 6.8 percent and the improvement of Plus Mateusz Morawiecki with the support of 6.0 percent. The second consequence is 0.5 percent points lower than the erstwhile survey, but inactive exceeds the threshold. The survey confirms that Development Plus maintains its own election space, although its own start changes the proportions inside the right side of the scene.
Under the threshold the organization besides remains together with the score of 4.0%. The undecided percent was 7.9 percent. It is simply a large group, capable of changing the order and scale of support. The poll is simply a photograph of moods, not an election result. However, we must not ignore the image that shows: the present camp of power does not have a majority today.
246 mandates of the right-wing opposition
The calculator of Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University translated the results into tickets. KO would receive 189 seats and Left 25. full is 214 tickets, which is 17 little than the 231 required. The erstwhile WP poll besides pointed to the majority on the right, so the September measurement is not an isolated informing to the government.
On the opposition side, the Law and Justice would win 113 seats, Confederation 85, Confederation of the Polish Crown 27, and improvement Plus 21. This gives a full of 246 seats. This arrangement provides the majority of figures, but the survey does not yet show the ability of 4 different groups to enter into an agreement. Each has its own leadership, interests and program. Math opens the way to change power. Politicians would gotta usage it.
State direction is at stake.
The survey was conducted by a mixed method of CAWI and CATI on a nationwide example of 1000 people declaring to participate in the election. The estimation mistake is 3 percent and the assurance level is 0.95. The differences in the order of respective points must so be read with due care. However, there is simply a clear difference in the simulation of mandates: 214 versus 246.
For Poland, the ability of the future Sejm to defend sovereignty, safety and national interest is at stake. The weakness of Tusk's coalition alone is not enough. Right hand must present a credible state program and prove that it can put Poles' affairs above organization accounts. The poll gives her most on paper. The work for its usage falls on the leaders.
Source: Virtual Poland, United Surveys by IBRiS survey dated September 4-6, 2026.
Source: WP News
![Poles have revealed who they criticize most frequently in conversations with their loved ones. The consequence may come as a surprise [POLL]](data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAIAAAACCAYAAABytg0kAAAAFElEQVQYV2N8+vTpfwYGBgZGGAMAUNMHXwvOkQUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=)
