Aleksandra Tchórzewska, naTemat.pl: Are you amazed by the polling results in the presidential election?
Dr. Stefan Marcinkiewicz: I think the candidates are going head to head here. The differences in support were truly small, as were besides shown by fresh polls. But already the consummated right-wing voices did not give a chance to win this side of the political scene.
Unfortunately, polarization has reached its peak. What happened was truly electrifying.
What does Rafał Trzaskowski's score say about Poles?
If Rafał Trzaskowski becomes President, I consider it a success – a success in defending liberal democracy. We did not go in the direction of Orbanowo-putinów or Trumpów, and it was a very real threat.
The election of Trzaskowski is simply a selection of European, pro-western, democratic Poland
And tolerant. This is simply a clear direction—to the West, not to any east satrapia.
Of course, liberal democracy has its disadvantages and advantages, but in this run we have seen, among another things, a situation where candidates are charged with specified serious charges that they should usually vanish from politics. Meanwhile, he not only remained, but his support even grew. Looking at all the Presidents of the Republic, I would say that the worse cards in the résumé only had Bitut and Jaruzelski than Nawrocks.
72.8 percent – this is the highest consequence in the 1995 presidential election, erstwhile Alexander Kwasniewski won the second round. How do you measure this mobilisation of Poles? Can, as previously predicted, higher attendance yet favour Rafał Trzaskowski?
The turnout of 72.8 percent is indeed a very advanced result. Although in the parliamentary elections it was most likely inactive about 2% higher. Nevertheless, 1 must be glad that people have mobilized – this affects the mandate of the future president. With this kind of social polarization, attendance is high, but earlier – for many years – it was definitely lower.
I think it is worth pointing out that both sides of the barricades have been very effective in mobilising their voters. But I besides have the impression that part of the liberal left electorate in the first circular did not go to vote. People thought, "And so will the second round," and the polls were beautiful reassuring, and quite a few people left for the weekend. The Law and Justice, on the another hand, had a desire for revenge. And hence today's mobilization.
According to exit poll, 54.2% of women voted.
The mobilisation we observed present besides had a strong female component. I think that "red corals" (at the march that took place on May 25, Joanna Senyszyn publically donated a string of red corals to Małgorzata Trzaska. This motion became a symbol of women's mobilization – many of Rafał Trzaskowski's voters decided to show their support by coming to the urns in red corals. – ed.) became a symbol that played an crucial role. The women went to a massive vote.
Millions of Poles chose the right in this election, including the far right.
There is nothing to hide – PiS is an utmost right party. Against the background of the Confederate, it may look a bit milder, but their programme, especially in the areas of immigration, sexual minorities or abortion – this is simply a very extremist right.
The most utmost wing of the PiS is Sovereign Poland. I think the PiS was hoping to take over the full electorate of Braun and Mentzen. However, it is worth remembering that Mentzen voters are mostly free-marketers – people who advocate low taxes and the limited function of the state in the economy, especially erstwhile it comes to spending public funds and extended social programs.
It is frequently people who do not benefit from 800+, 13th or 14th retirement, and what is more, many of them felt painfully the effects of the Polish Deal, which hit them in the pocket. Therefore, it is not said that they are closer to PiS – especially in the case of a candidate whose résumé contains many compromising episodes.
Besides, Mentzen himself made a reasonable comment on this candidacy. He later set a bit of a key, but there is no uncertainty that his reluctance – or even hatred – towards the Civic Platform was besides strong to openly support Rafał Trzaskowski.
However, this did not prevent him from promoting his own pub on the occasion of the celebrated beer with Sikorski and Trzaskowski. I think that beer – if the current results stay – will be recorded in the past of Polish electoral campaigns as 1 of the most peculiar symbols of this period.
Are we afraid of Kaczyński coming back?
I think in a large part of society there is simply a panic fear of the return of the Law and Justice to power. With each next term, this organization was increasingly violent and uncompromising. Just look at what Donald Trump is doing present in the United States – and feel this breath of radicalism coming to us from across the ocean.
For me personally, the time of the regulation of the Law and Justice was a dark period in the past of Polish politics. I inactive have a scene in front of me erstwhile undercovers beat women with telescopic batons erstwhile constitutional ministers showed pornographic content of a zoophilic character in the media, or a grenade launch at the Police Headquarters.
Then I truly felt that this power could no longer be removed – that it would bribe all social groups and manipulate the remainder of society with propaganda. For a moment, it seemed that 500+ and then 800+ would become a political "philosopher's Stone" that would supply Jarosław Kaczyński with life-long power. But it didn't.
Donald Tusk's return and the large mobilization of October 15, 2023 led to a very hard but democratic coalition. Difficult, due to the fact that reconciling so many different environments and interests is not easy. Of course, many people present are disappointed by the pace and scale of the changes that have been made – and the governments that started de facto in December 2023 besides powerfully influenced Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign. Especially the deficiency of accounts of the Law and Justice – for many it was a signal of weakness or indecision.
In your opinion, after Trzaskovsky's theoretical victory, the utmost right-wing moods will strengthen, or will they weaken?
So far, Trump seems to be providing a extremist right-wing wind with sails. And in Poland, this wind besides blows from the East. Troll farms operate, migration topics are constantly heated, and various narratives of hatred and distrust are built around Ukrainians.
This can be seen, for example, in CBOS investigation – the level of sympathy towards Ukrainians has fallen significantly. There are besides expanding questions about further support for the fighting Ukraine. In this context, it was peculiarly meaningful to refuse the PiS candidate to sign a declaration of support for Ukraine's accession to NATO.
We must besides not forget the subject of abortion. My wife received prayer messages, with a clear message: "Don't vote for a candidate who supports abortion." This shows that the run besides operated through specified channels.
Right-wing environments are very efficient in creating alleged moral panic – around abortion, around sexual minorities, around migrants. We have seen this in erstwhile campaigns and we besides see it present – in memes that circulate on the net, in messages that scope people. It's a thoughtful strategy.
Will the right after the election be able to compromise or choose a confrontation?
Today we have a political reality of a binary nature – everything becomes zero-one. I think the era of compromise ended somewhere at the beginning of the fresh millennium. In the past, we shared common goals: NATO membership, later the European Union.
Currently, the only component that is inactive in any way connecting the political scene is the Russian threat – although sometimes I feel that the right is more afraid of Western influence than Russia. This is simply a paradox: Western values are more feared than Russian tanks.
What social and cultural changes can happen if Rafał Trzaskowski takes over the office of President?
I think that he will effort to "paste" Poland – a presidency modeled a bit on the 1 performed by Aleksander Kwasniewski. It is worth recalling that Kwasniewski enjoyed evidence social support and is inactive considered the best-rated president. He was able to combine various currents, and at the same time he was firm towards the government – for example, I am reminded of his "sacred friendship" with Prime Minister Leszek Miller.
I think that Rafał Trzaskowski has many qualities that can make him a conciliative president, capable of mitigating social tensions. And although we know very well,
in what moods we now function as a society, possibly he will have the chance to cool them down. I hope he does.
There could besides be a function for the First Lady. Under the current conditions, it would be useful to have an active and visible partner of the president – especially since Agata Kornhauser-Duda remained in the shadows for the past fewer years. We request individual to warm the presidency and at the same time ease the political dispute.
It would besides be good for Trzaskowski to open himself up to those from conservative backgrounds – those with which dialog can be conducted. Jacek Siewara (former Head of BBN – red) appeared in the campaign, which I consider a sensible move. You gotta scope out your hand, even if present it will consequence in accusations of treason or "packaging
with the enemy." But you gotta try.
How can the global perception of Poland change after specified a result?
I think that in the West many people would be relieved if Trzaskowski took office. In the East, changes would most likely be little noticeable, but not without meaning – after the October elections of 2023, Poland became a kind of a model of how to appear from radical, right-wing populism.
Perhaps this situation will become an inspiration to others. Let us remind that in Romania the Democratic candidate who appeared at the rally of Rafał Trzaskowski late won. possibly Trzaskowski will be another symbol of change. Or possibly his victory, if it does, will besides be an impulse for Hungary – who knows? The polls there present show that change is possible.
What about abroad policy after the election?
I think the current government has taken a course towards the West and is trying to base its abroad policy on 2 pillars. 1 is the European Union, the another is the United States. Earlier, under the regulation of the Law and Justice, the full strategy was almost exclusively based on relations with the US, especially during Donald Trump's presidency. After Joe Biden's taking over the PiS, he lost his orientation for a moment, although the situation "saved" the tragic war in Ukraine, which forced a more unambiguous stance.
But we truly have no another choice – the Polish state requires good relations with both the European Union and the US. A peculiar precedence should be to strengthen cooperation with key EU countries: Germany, France and the United Kingdom – despite its exit from the community.
Of course, the United States remains our strategical ally – and this has not changed since 1989. Nevertheless, I am afraid about the rhetorical scare of Germany, which returns in public space. This reminds me of Gomulka or Moczar propaganda – with their slogans about "neohitlers from Bonn" and another absurd narratives. specified an anti-German movie from the 1960s is not only anachronistic, but besides harmful to our abroad policy.
Therefore, I hope that the Western pro-government course, based on cooperation with both the European Union and the United States, will be maintained.
