The forecast of the results of the first circular of presidential elections, which we published on Sunday, invariably gives the best chance of winning Rafał Trzaskowski. The Citizen Coalition candidate could number on 37.8% of the vote today. The second position, with evidence low support, remains Karol Nawrocki, who could number on 25.3% of the vote. On the 3rd position with another evidence was placed Sławomir Mentzen. The Confederate candidate can already number on 19.6% support. Over the last 3 weeks, it has managed to strengthen by 2.6 percent points.
Due to Nawrocki's weaker ratings and Mentzen's increasingly better results in the latest poll, we asked Poles if they thought "Slawomir Mentzen has a real chance to enter the II circular in the upcoming presidential election".
Can Sławomir Mentzen enter the second round?
49.51% of respondents say that the Confederate candidate has a chance to enter the 2nd circular (19.25 percent believe that “yes” and 30.26 percent believe that “more than so”).
The other view is 33.14 percent surveyed (13.79 percent "not decisively", and 19.35 percent "not necessarily"). In turn, 17.36 percent of respondents have no opinion on this.
The PiS voters are insecure about their candidate? More than half of them see Mentzen in the 2nd round
Who believes most in Mentzen's promotion to the 2nd tour? First of all, Confederate voters. As many as 84 percent of them believe that their candidate can take at least second place in the I circular and qualify for the II round.
As many as 50.3% of those polled who declare to be PiS voters besides believe that Sławomir Mentzen has a chance to get to the II round. Mentzen has been making up for the distance to Nawrocki in fresh weeks, and both compete primarily for the right-wing electorate. Even better chances of a Confederate candidate are assessed by 3rd Way voters — as many as 54.2% of them think that he can enter the II tour.
Mentzen's chances, on the another hand, are judged by voters of the Civic Coalition. 36.4 percent of them believe that the Confederate candidate has a chance for a second round. 48.3% say otherwise. The left-wing voters have a somewhat better opinion of his chances (43.8%).
The survey was conducted on 22-24 March 2025 with the CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) method by ACE investigation for Onet portal on a example of 1008 Poles aged 18-80.
