Krzysztof Ziemkiewicz talks about how the political scene in Poland can change after the last presidential election.
Why did Donald Tusk want to have a vote of confidence?
Undoubtedly, erstwhile it happened what the ruling camp refused to accept – although I have the impression that in the last week any already knew, had access to investigation – it was a immense shock. Disputes began: who was guilty, whether it could have been avoided, each other's accusations. It's typical after losing the election. The peculiarity of Polish politics is that both sides of this po-PiS duople avoid basic democratic hygiene. In average democracy, you lose the election, you apologize, you change, fresh faces appear, a fresh program. It's not here.
Mentzen's example was a parliamentary election.
But the mechanics is the same. You lose, you accept. Our place? No, it's impossible, it's a shame, people are stupid. In 2015, the platform did not accept that she had done something wrong. Effect? She didn't break the glass ceiling for 8 years. In 2023, she had 30% of power, thanks to Holownia. Now the PiS does the same thing. Kaczyński says: we did not make mistakes, we did not apologize. This opens the way of a Confederate that grows due to the fact that voters disappointed with Tuski will no longer return to the Law and Justice.
Tusk fears the interior fronda, possibly even in his own party. For the first time in years, his position has been challenged. I'm talking about Radosław Sikorski. Before the election, he showed ambition, even by gathering Mentzen, which harmed him and Trzaskowski, but built Sikorski as a player.
But does that mean anything?
Yes, due to the fact that Sikorski wants to be seen as a conservative leader who can work with the Confederacy to keep power. He will say: I would win, I am flexible, Europe respects me, and he will throw these 3 arguments on the table.
You think he could truly replace Tusk?
He thinks so himself and works in that direction. He has given abroad interviews, in which he says things that are harmful to Poland, but perfectly hit the tastes of Eurocrats. Europe without the US? It's honey for the elite in Berlin or Paris. In this communicative Sikorski appears to be a actual European.
Is Tusk inactive respected in Europe?
There are doubts here. There are signals that Tusk was ‘exaggerated’ to another wagon. There are those who say it was a request from the Chancellor of Germany. How about Americans? possibly Berlin wanted to show who was in charge in Poland. I said it was a proxy war: we chose between a pro-American candidate and a German candidate.
The atmosphere is tense. If Tusk tries to take distant even 1 stool from his partners, it could be war.
The hoarding home already talks about it in the Sejm.
Yes, but I'll remind you that the Hollow home erstwhile threatened Trzaskowski and then changed his head in 2 days. It may be the same this time, but it doesn't have to. There may besides be a signal from Brussels. possibly Trzaskowski will be named as the fresh Prime Minister. Although I don't think he's up to it.
Why?
Because it has no leadership qualities. He can't pull people with him. I fishy he's in a major depression right now. I don't think he's gonna get up. So that leaves Sikorski. Gierty's already promoting him. I think Tusk sees it. Hence Monday's message, this tone: "No step back", "We polarize harder". It was a preemptive blow.
So not a government reconstruction, but a possible complete shuffle?
The fair's starting. possibly not yet, possibly next week, possibly tomorrow. It's already happening. Tusk knows that.
